The Philadelphia Phillies will go for a four-game sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday, May 6 at Citizens Bank Park, which has been kind to the Phillies in this series.
The two teams will send out frontline starters for this matchup, as Brandon Woodruff gets the ball for the Brewers while the Phillies are countering with Zack Wheeler.
Can Milwaukee get back in the win column and avoid the sweep? Find out with our best MLB betting picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Phillies at 1:05 p.m. ET.
Brewers vs Phillies odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonMilwaukee opened -120 Wednesday night at DraftKings, peaked at -125, bottomed out at -110 and is -124 at 12:40 p.m. ET. The Brewers are taking 54 percent of moneyline bets and 63 percent of moneyline cash. The total dipped from 7 to 6 and is now 6.5 (Under -114), with 65 percent of bets on the Over, but 58 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameBrewers vs Phillies betting preview
Starting pitchers
Brandon Woodruff (2-0, 1.80 ERA): Woodruff has turned in a quality start in each of his last five outings, and he has struck out at least six batters in all of those games. Last time out, Woodruff led his team to a win over the Dodgers and he now heads to Citizens Bank Park, where he allowed no earned runs in six innings of work in his last start there, in 2019.
Zack Wheeler (2-2, 3.49 ERA): Wheeler allowed four runs in the first inning against the Mets his last time out, but he settled in after that and gave his team six more innings of scoreless ball. The issue for Wheeler this season is that his command isn’t there, as he has walked three or more batters in three of his last five starts.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Brewers: Christian Yelich OF (Out), Omar Narvaez C (Out), Keston Hiura 2B (Questionable).
Phillies: Bryce Harper OF (Questionable), Jean Segura 2B (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over has hit in seven of Milwaukee’s last 10 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Phillies.
Moneyline pick
Both Lorenzo Cain and Kolten Wong have given Wheeler trouble in the past, as the two are a combined 6-for-14 with two doubles and four RBIs against the righty in their careers. Meanwhile, Wheeler’s power has helped him to own Travis Shaw in the past, but it wouldn’t be all that surprising if Shaw was to homer in this one. He has some serious pop and is due for a moment against Philadelphia’s starter.
On top of the Brewers having a couple of nice matchups, this team has a lot to play for in this one. This is a prideful Milwaukee team, and that means that this group is not going to want to get swept after dropping all three games of this series by one run.
Also, the Phillies that Woodruff has seen in his career are a combined 4-for-49 at the plate against him. Granted, a lot of those guys won’t actually be in the lineup in this meeting, but the righty is going to like what he sees when these batters step up to the plate. Even Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins are a combined 0-for-12 against the righty. Back the Brewers and bank on Woodruff to help the team avoid the sweep.
PREDICTION: Brewers (-125)
Over/Under pick
This total opened up at 6.5 and has since moved to 7.0, and that does make a lot of sense when looking at the facts.
While Wheeler has dominant stuff on the mound, he has been mediocre more often than not as of late. Wheeler did throw eight innings of one-run ball against the Cardinals on April 26, but he has also allowed four earned runs in two of his last three. The Brewers have the type of lineup that could get to him here.
Four of Milwaukee’s last five games have gone Over the total, and the same goes for Philadelphia. Even Woodruff has the ability to struggle during stretches, so the value is just hard to pass up here.
PREDICTION: Over 7.0 (+100)
Brewers vs Phillies betting card
- Brewers (-125)
- Over 7.0 (+100)
Picks made on 5/06/2021 at 8:35 a.m. ET
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