The New York Mets return home Tuesday night looking to snap their skid against the Milwaukee Brewers, but their offensive struggles continue to raise concerns.
With both teams facing a tough pitching matchup and the Mets' bats still quiet, I’m leaning toward the Under in my Brewers vs. Mets predictions.
Keep reading below to see all my thoughts on tonight’s matchup in my free MLB picks for Tuesday, July 1.
Brewers vs Mets prediction
My Brewers vs Mets best bet: Under 8 (-102 at FanDuel)
⚾ Pick Analysis
The New York Mets, who came into June looking like one of the best teams in baseball, have now lost 13 of their last 16 games. That includes a sweep at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend, in which New York scored just four runs in three games while allowing 30.
It’s hard to find one specific area that needs improvement when things have gone so wrong for a team. And the Mets have certainly seen their pitching suffer over this stretch, both due to injuries and sudden regressions from pitchers that had started strong in 2025.
But the biggest issue is the lineup, which is failing to produce anything for New York. Over the last two weeks – a stretch of 13 games – the Mets have an OPS of .665, which is 75 points below their season average. They’ve scored just 3.08 runs per game in that stretch, and have somehow only drawn 26 walks, which has contributed to an abysmal .274 on-base percentage. The power is still there – New York has his 18 homers in this stretch – but with nobody on base, runs are few and far between.
The Mets aren’t likely to get much help tonight, as they face Milwaukee Brewers starter Freddy Peralta. The former All-Star is pitching to a 2.90 ERA this year, and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start in any of his last eight outings. Peralta has always been good at keeping runners off base – he has a 1.129 WHIP this season – and if the Mets can’t get runners on, it won’t matter if they managed to take him deep.
But the Mets might be able to scrape out a win tonight even if they only put up a couple runs. Clay Holmes has been everything New York hoped he would turn out to be when it converted the career-long reliever back to a starting role for 2025. Holmes is throwing to a 2.97 ERA, and the Mets are 11-5 when he has started this year. He’s allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts, pitching to a 2.75 ERA during that run.
With two good starting pitchers on the mound and at least one team that’s struggling to score at all right now, I’m not expecting a lot of runs. The total for tonight’s game has been set at eight runs, and in a vacuum, that’s reasonable given how prolific these offenses have been all year long. But in this matchup, and with the Mets struggling to put anything together right now, the Under is the play for tonight.
Brewers vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8
Brewers +1.5
Freddy Peralta 6+ strikeouts
🚀 SGP Analysis
The primary reason why I’m on the Under tonight is my expectation that Peralta will continue to contain the struggling Mets offense, and that’s going to form the backbone of my same-game parlay. I’ll start by taking the Under again at a flat eight runs, and parlay that with the Brewers getting +1.5 on the run line. Not only have the Mets been struggling, but if they’re not going to put up many runs, it’s even harder to see them winning by 2+ runs tonight.
On that same note, I’m taking Peralta to record 6+ strikeouts in this game. Peralta has hit that total in five of his last six starts, and while his strikeout rate is lower than it has been at any point in his career, he’s still averaging more than one per inning. The Mets are striking out 8.84 times per game over the last two weeks, and I see these two trends combining to get Peralta to his target of six punchouts again tonight.
Brewers vs Mets Odds
Brewers vs Mets live odds
Brewers vs Mets opening odds
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +110 | New York -130
- Run line: Milwaukee +1.5 (-184) | New York -1.5 (+152)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-120) | Under 8 (-102)
Brewers vs Mets trend
The Under is 3-1 in Milwaukee’s last four games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Mets.
How to watch Brewers vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Flushing, Queens |
| Date | Tuesday, 7-1-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSNWI, SNY |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Freddy Peralta (8-4, 2.97 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Clay Holmes (8-4, 2.97 ERA) |
Brewers vs Mets latest injuries
Brewers vs Mets weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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