All eyes will be on the AFC tape-measuring matchup between the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on Saturday, December 27.
The two teams are battling for division leads and postseason positioning, and my early NFL picks and Texans vs. Chargers predictions are calling for Houston to cover with the total going Over the number in this Week 17 tilt.
Texans vs Chargers predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Texans vs Chargers spread pick: Texans +1.5
I’m not reading too much into the Houston Texans allowing the Las Vegas Raiders to hang around in Week 16. Houston has won seven straight to climb into contention in the AFC South, and wins over the Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts, and Kansas City Chiefs reinforce the Texans are legit.
There’s obviously no questioning the Houston defense, either.
The Texans have allowed the second-fewest yards and lowest EPA per play while allowing the fewest points per game, and they have the second-highest turnover differential in the league.
Ranking first in pass rush win rate and second in run stop win rate are two more feathers in the Houston hat.
Additionally, the Texans have found an offensive groove to complement the elite defense. Houston has averaged 25.4 points per game while ranking 11th in dropback EPA.
The Los Angeles Chargers are legit, but I worry their makeshift offensive line will have its hands full with the Houston pass rush, so I’ll take the points with the Texans.
Early Texans vs Chargers total pick: Over 39.5
These are two capable offenses with experienced quarterbacks, and there are just far too many penalizing flags thrown on defenses week in, week out for the Texans and Chargers to go Under the number in ideal playing conditions at SoFi Stadium.
This is a huge matchup for the AFC playoff picture, and good defense creates offensive scoring opportunities, too.
In addition to the noted boost in play from the Texans on offense, the Bolts have also put up an average of 27.8 points while ranking above average in offensive DVOA across their past five home games.
As a result, I’m not anticipating the Texans completely shutting down Herbert and the Chargers on Saturday.
Texans vs Chargers odds
- Texans vs. Chargers spread: Chargers -1.5
- Texans vs. Chargers moneyline: Texans +100, Chargers -120
- Texans vs. Chargers Over/Under: 39.5
How to watch Texans vs Chargers
- Texans vs. Chargers matchup
- Date: Saturday, December 27, 2025, 4:30 p.m. ET
- City: Inglewood, CA
- Venue: SoFi Stadium
- TV: NFLN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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