The New England Patriots will continue their battle for the top seed in the AFC playoffs as they visit the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon.
New York hasn’t shown the ability to stay close to anyone in recent weeks, let alone one of the best teams in the NFL, and that’s why I’m taking New England to cover in my early Patriots vs. Jets predictions.
Let’s take a closer look at how bettors should approach the early lines for this game in my free NFL picks for Sunday, December 28.
Patriots vs Jets predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Patriots vs Jets spread pick: Patriots -12.5
The New England Patriots rebounded from their loss to the Buffalo Bills with a comeback win on the road against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday.
Drake Maye continues to enjoy an incredible season, while the Patriots defense has been outstanding, holding opponents to 20.0 ppg. But I think the more important side to look at here is the New York Jets.
The Jets have been poor from Week 1, but they’re downright terrible right now. New York has lost five of its last six games. The defense has fallen apart since some key departures at the trade deadline, and the quarterback situation is a mess with Brady Cook inspiring little confidence over his first three NFL starts.
As a result, New York hasn’t even been competitive in the last few weeks. The Jets have now lost three consecutive games by at least 23 points, averaging just 12.0 ppg while allowing 37.0 ppg during that span. And none of the teams they’ve played — with the possible exception of the red-hot Jacksonville Jaguars — are anywhere in New England’s league.
The Jets may be at home, but this spread is still too small given the gulf between these teams. I’m backing the Patriots to cover as long as the spread remains below two full touchdowns.
Early Patriots vs Jets total pick: Over 42.5
The Jets can pull bettors either way when it comes to the total these days. While New York doesn’t play much offense, it isn’t doing much on defense either, allowing opponents to pick up the slack. As a result, the Jets had hit the Over three times in a row before their 29-6 loss to the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, another team that isn’t known for its dynamic offense.
On the other hand, the Patriots have been hitting the Over with ease as of late. Not only have they done so in each of the last three games, but they’ve also played to totals of 46+ points in each of their past four contests.
Going back even further, New England has played to a total of Over 42.5 points in 11 of their past 12 games.
It should be noted that the one exception to that stretch was New England’s 27-14 win over the Jets in Week 11. But New York is showing significantly less fight now than they were in that game, when the Jets were coming off a two-game winning streak.
I expect Maye and the New England offense to score as many points as they want to against the Jets. And if the Patriots don’t hit the Over on their own, the Jets will likely at least contribute 10-14 points to get us there.
The Over is my pick, but I’d start to reconsider if the total rose to around 45 points.
Patriots vs Jets odds
- Patriots vs. Jets spread: Jets +12.5
- Patriots vs. Jets moneyline: Patriots -950, Jets +625
- Patriots vs. Jets Over/Under: 42.5
How to watch Patriots vs Jets
- Patriots vs. Jets matchup
- Date: Sunday, December 28, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: East Rutherford, NJ
- Venue: MetLife Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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