The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers duel at Wrigley Field on Tuesday night in the second contest of a three-game set, with the Brewers taking the opener 6-2 last night.
This could be a crucial series for the postseason picture with Milwaukee having a five-game lead over the Cubs atop the NL Central while Chicago is on pace for a Wild Card berth. MLB odds opened with the Cubs as -130 home favorites for this division battle with the Over/Under at 7.0, and I'm thinking that total is a tad too high for these offenses to eclipse.
Here are my best free Brewers vs. Cubs MLB picks and predictions for August 29.
Brewers vs Cubs odds
Brewers vs Cubs predictions
The total for this game is sitting at a low 7.0 but there are plenty of reasons to like the Under, even at that number.
The Chicago Cubs are sending Justin Steele to the mound, and while the southpaw has been a bit underwhelming this month, he still has an impressive 2.80 ERA across 24 starts on the year. Steele ranks in the Top 25th percentile of all pitchers in barrel rate, average exit velocity, and expected ERA, so he should be effective against a Milwaukee Brewers lineup that ranks 27th in the majors in slugging percentage (.381).
The Cubbies have been slightly more impressive at the plate where they sit 14th in slugging (.418). However, the analytics haven't been good for either side with both sitting in the Bottom 10 in barrel rate, average exit velocity, and hard hit rate.
That's bad news for Chicago's hitters, who will be facing three-time All-Star Corbin Burnes. Burnes has dropped off a bit from his Cy Young season in 2021 but still ranks in the Top 20th percentile in barrel rate, average exit velocity, and hard hit rate. He has also pitched to a 2.97 ERA with a sizzling OBA of .159 over his last 10 starts.
Another factor to consider is the wind at Wrigley and tonight's forecast is projecting stiff 20 mph winds blowing directly towards the infield. With both starting pitchers poised for strong performances, play the Under 7.
My best bet: Under 7 (-114 at Pinnacle)
Brewers vs Cubs same-game parlay
Under 7.5
Justin Steele Over 5.5 Ks
Christian Yelich Under 1.5 TB
While the full game total is sitting at 7.0, the SGP section of bet365 gives us the option for 6.5 or 7.5 with the Under at -110 or -170 respectively.
Despite not pitching his best this month, Steele has still eclipsed this strikeouts number in seven of his last eight games. He should be able to rack up at least six Ks against a Brewers lineup that ranks 19th in the majors in strikeout rate.
Yelich leads Milwaukee with 221 total bases but he has been ice cold at the dish this month, slugging just .330. Matter of fact, his home run last night was the first time he has gone yard since July 30. Yelich also struggles against fellow lefties, slashing .227/.287/.318 vs. southpaws like Steele this year.
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Brewers vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The line has moved ever so slightly with the Cubs sitting at -135 as of 10:30 a.m. after opening at -130. The total opened at 7 with the Under at -105 but the Under is now juiced to about -125 at some books with others moving the O/U to 6.5.
With their victory against Chicago last night, the Brewers extended their winning streak to nine games while widening the gap between themselves and the Cubs in the division standings. The Cubs have also been a tough team to beat recently, going 24-11 in their last 35 games.
The Cubbies are also a sizzling 11-1 in Steele's last 12 starts while the Brewers have gone 8-3 in their last 11 contests when Burnes takes to the hill.
Despite mediocre season-long batting numbers from both teams, they've been generating plenty of runs lately. The Cubs are averaging 5.8 runs per game this month while the Brewers are are plating 5.67 runs/game in August.
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Trend to know
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the game total Under in 27 of their last 46 away games (+9.80 Units / 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cubs
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Brewers vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Tuesday, August 29, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSWI, MARQ |
Starting pitchers
Corbin Burnes (9-6, 3.65 ERA): Burnes has an expected ERA of 3.38, which is impressive, but significantly worse than his xERA of 2.00 back in 2021. While he still generates plenty of whiffs, his strikeout rate has dropped while his walk rate has ticked up. Burnes has been wildly inconsistent over his last three starts. He was shredded by the Twins and the usually punch-less White Sox but he also held the Dodgers stacked lineup to just two hits across seven innings of shutout ball.
Justin Steele (14-3, 2.80 ERA): The 28-year-old made his first All-Star game last month but hasn't looked that sharp this month. While he hasn't been lit up in any of his five starts he has pitched to a subpar 4.13 ERA with opponents batting .291. Steele's slider is his best pitch and unlike Burnes he displays better control.
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