Brewers vs Braves Picks and Predictions: Finding Value Against Woodruff

The Brewers are 8-2-2 O/U since the All-Star break and are hitting as well as any team in the majors. Atlanta can swing it, too, especially at home at Truist Park. Even with ace Brandon Woodruff (2.14 ERA) on the mound, we're siding with the Over tonight.

Posted: Jul 31, 2021 12:15 PM ET Updated: Jul 31, 2021 12:15 PM ET Est Time: 4 min
Austin Riley Atlanta Braves MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Both the Milwaukee Brewers and the Atlanta Braves have re-tooled their teams ahead of the August playoff push, but it was the Brewers who came away with a 9-5 win yesterday in the opening match of this three-game set.

Milwaukee has won four in a row and sits seven games up on the Reds for the NL Central lead. Atlanta is two games under .500 but is still only 4.5 games back from the Mets in the NL East. Brandon Woodruff and the Brewers opened as -151 road favorites on Saturday with the total set at a flat 8.5.

Here are our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Braves on July 30.

Brewers vs Braves game info

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Date: Saturday, July 31, 2021
Time: 7:20 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Southeast, Bally Sports Wisconsin

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Starting pitchers

Brandon Woodruff (7-5, 2.14 ERA): Woodruff may be 7-5, but the Brewers are 13-7 SU over his 20 starts this season. Opponents are hitting a minuscule .120 versus Woodruff on the road but the right-hander has yet to see the Braves in 2021. Woodruff leads this talented Milwaukee rotation in ERA and sits second in NL Cy Young betting odds.

Kyle Muller (2-3, 2.55 ERA): The 23-year-old rookie left-hander has made five MLB starts this season and has given up just one earned run and six hits over his last two outings (nine innings pitched) which were against the Padres and Mets. Muller can get himself in trouble with walks but has allowed just one homer in his first 24 big-league innings and has a 9.49 K/9 rate. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Brewers: Christian Yelich OF (Out), Jace Peterson IF (Out).
Braves: Ronald Acuna OF (Out), Travis d'Arnaud C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Brewers are 10-21 in the last 31 meetings in Atlanta. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Braves.

Runline pick

The Brewers didn’t let a 4-0 deficit slow them down last night as they answered with four of their own in the third and another four in the fourth en route to a 9-5 victory over the Braves. Milwaukee is hitting .290 out of the break which is the best mark in baseball. Their .834 OPS over that stretch is the third-best mark in the league and the addition of Eduardo Escobar paid dividends immediately after the infielder (who was hitting clean-up) went 1-for-3 with a homer and two runs scored in his Brewers debut.

Atlanta's bats showed it can hit elite pitching as the club scored five on Corbin Burnes in the opener. The Milwaukee rotation is so deep that now Atlanta has to hit against another sub-2.50 ERA pitcher in Woodruff. The Milwaukee starter has allowed just 75 hits in 126 innings of work this year. But with Milwaukee paying -151 as road favorites, we have no problem taking a long look at the home side at +1.5  and -120 odds.

Woodruff has allowed five runs in his first two second-half starts so he hasn't been invincible out of the break. Atlanta got to Burnes early yesterday and led 4-0 in the first after sending eight batters to the plate. 

Muller has pitched well in his brief time in the big leagues. He's coming off a five-inning scoreless outing last week where he allowed just four hits over five innings versus the Mets and the Braves’ A-bullpen should be all available tonight after trailing 8-0 when yesterday’s starter was pulled.  

We love getting a great price on a +1.5, especially with an offensively competent team like the Braves who are hitting .259 in the second half (a Top-8 mark). Milwaukee missing Christain Yelich also helps.

PREDICTION: Atlanta +1.5 (-120)

Over/Under pick

The Brewers are 8-2-2 O/U out of the break thanks to baseball’s hottest offense that is scoring 6.83 runs per game since July 16. Woodruff is not an easy pitcher to tag, but neither is Burnes. The Braves are in win-now mode and the additions of Adam Duvall and Joc Pederson show this team is all-in on offense.

Atlanta’s Austin Riley is slashing .462/.500/.1.231 over the last seven days and is absolutely crushing opposing pitchers. Pederson and Freddie Freeman have also had some success versus the usually stingy Woodruff, going a combined 5-for-16 with a trio of home runs.

We doubt Muller has another five innings of scoreless ball in him, especially against a hot-hitting team like the Brewers who are scoring 4.96 runs per game on the road this season. Muller has now made five MLB starts so there will be a bigger scouting report on the former second-round arm. 

We aren’t about to fade either of these offenses and feel a little bit safe with a straight 9.

PREDICTION: Over 9.0 (-110)

Brewers vs Braves betting card

  • Atlanta +1.5 (-120)
  • Over 9.0 (-110)

Picks made on 7/31/2021 at 10:25 a.m. ET

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