This article will try to find some of MLB’s best props and side bets for the day and does all the heavy lifting so you don’t have to. If there’s a line on it, we’ll look into it.
Today, we’re taking a fired-up Chicago offense, playing the probability game in the Bay, and betting on a Boston pitcher in a great matchup despite rising costs.
Check out our favorite free MLB prop bets and predictions for Saturday, July 31.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Chicago White Sox team total Over 4.5 (-132)
The White Sox scored six runs yesterday on 11 hits and went 4-for-13 with RISP. They dug into the Cleveland bullpen that threw 3 2-3 innings and are scoring nearly 5.0 runs per game at home, which is a Top-10 mark in baseball. On Saturday, Chicago faces inconsistent starter, Triston McKenzie.
McKenzie has allowed seven earned runs across his two second-half starts and has served up three home runs. The Cleveland starter allows a ton of traffic (42 walks in 59-plus innings) and also is susceptible to the long ball with a 1.67 HR/9 rate.
The young right-hander has also been pummeled by the White Sox this season. Through three outings, McKenzie owns an unsightly 10.37 ERA. The Sox could get Eloy Jimenez back in the lineup, but even if he does miss his third straight game, this Chicago order is still very capable of hanging some crooked numbers on the Cleveland starter.
Houston vs. San Francisco - First home run will be — solo HR (+100)
Houston’s Zack Greinke does a great job at keeping runners off the basepaths as his 1.12 WHIP indicates. He has just 26 walks in 126 innings pitched and allows less than a hit per inning. He has, however, given up a home run in five straight starts but because of his ability to keep the bases clear, the last five home runs allowed have all been solo shots.
Greinke will face San Francisco's Alex Wood. The Giants’ starter has a similar WHIP (1.17) as Greinke’s but does an even better job at suppressing home runs with just 10 allowed over 93 2-3 innings.
Not a ton of balls get hit out of Oracle Park at just 0.779 per game and with both pitchers keeping runners off the bases, the probability of multi-run homers is lower than most games. The first homer of the game to be a solo shot is paying even money, which is where our money is going Saturday in this big interleague matchup.
Nathan Eovaldi Over 6.5 strikeouts (+105)
Boston’s Nathan Eovaldi has topped his K prop in five straight starts and is coming off a dominant outing versus the Yankees last Saturday where he racked up eight punchouts. He has 24 strikeouts over his last 18 1-3 innings and faces a Tampa team Saturday that strikes out more than any other club in baseball.
The Rays are currently striking out in 26 percent of their at-bats and struck out seven times in the last meeting against the Boston starter. Eovaldi’s strikeout splits are one full K higher on the road than at home and, over his career, he has struck out 9.8 batters per nine innings at the Trop which is much higher than his career K/9 of 7.3.
Eovaldi’s K prop has jumped up from 5.5 to 6.5 over his current K streak, but at plus money, the 6.5 is still worth the price of admission.
MLB betting card for July 31
- White Sox team total Over 4.5 (-132)
- Houston vs. San Francisco - first home run will be - solo HR (+100)
- Nathan Eovaldi Over 6.5 strikeouts (+105)
Picks made on 7/31/2021 at 9:21 a.m. ET
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB prop picks, you could win $62.06 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.