Brewers vs Braves Picks and Predictions: Morton's Hot Stretch Gives Atlanta Value, Even As Big Favorite

Atlanta has scored 13 runs in two games off Milwaukee's aces and now faces one of the Brewers' back-end starters — with its ace, Charlie Morton, on the mound. That's led to the Braves being big home MLB betting favorites today... and we like the chalk.

Zachary Cohen
Posted: Aug 1, 2021 7:45 AM ET Updated: Aug 1, 2021 7:45 AM ET Est Time: 4 min
Charlie Morton Atlanta Braves MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

One of the more interesting games on the MLB schedule today is in Atlanta, where the Braves and the Milwaukee Brewers will play the rubber match of a three-game set.

These clubs split the first two games of the series, although Atlanta managed to hang some crooked numbers on both of Milwaukee's aces — and are MLB betting favorites as it faces veteran Brett Anderson in today's contest.

Here are our Brewers vs. Braves MLB picks and predictions for Sunday, August 1, with first pitch set for 1:20 p.m. ET.

Brewers vs Braves game info

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Date: Sunday, August 1, 2021
Time: 1:20 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Southeast, Bally Sports Wisconsin

Brewers vs Braves odds

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Brewers vs Braves betting preview

Starting pitchers

Brett Anderson (3-5, 3.86 ERA): Anderson has been pitching well lately, given up only two earned runs over his last 15 innings. That was a three-start stretch, with the lefty giving up exactly three hits in each outing but recording just seven total strikeouts. Anderson rarely pitches more than five innings, but he also doesn’t make too many mistakes. However, Anderson did give up four earned runs in just 3 2-3 innings of work against the Braves on May 15.

Charlie Morton (10-3, 3.72 ERA): Morton struggled a bit at the start of the year, but he has since been the same high-end rotation presence we saw in Houston and Tampa Bay. The Braves have won in 10 of Morton’s last 13 starts, with the righty giving up three or fewer earned runs in 11 of those 13 outings. He has also been racking up the strikeouts, as his last outing (5 Ks in five innings) snapped a streak of seven straight starts with at least seven punchouts.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Brewers: Christian Yelich OF (Out), Travis Shaw 3B (Out).
Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. OF (Out), Marcell Ozuna OF (Out), Travis d’Arnaud C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Braves are 5-2 in their last seven games as favorites. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Braves.

Moneyline pick

Anderson has been reliable for Milwaukee, especially recently, but one of his worst outings of the season came when he gave up four earned runs in only 3 2-3 innings against the Braves earlier this year. Atlanta got eight hits off the lefty in that game and the team also drew three walks. That might seem like a rare lousy outing for Anderson, but the Braves' current roster is a combined 13 for 38 with three homers, four doubles and 12 RBIs off of him in his career.

Freddie Freeman should be a huge factor in this game, as he is 4 for 5 with a homer and three RBIs against Anderson in his career, while Jorge Soler could also make a sizable impact for his new team. He has also homered off the lefty in the past and Soler was 3 for 4 with an RBI in his debut for Atlanta yesterday.

On the flip side, Atlanta's Morton is looking in vintage form as he gets to take on a Milwaukee squad that sits in the bottom half of the league in batting average against right-handed pitching (.249). Milwaukee also has the sixth-highest strikeout rate against righties in baseball, and Morton has six starts with eight or more strikeouts this year. He should be able to turn in a good outing against this team. 

PREDICTION: Braves ML (-154)

Over/Under pick

Anderson struggled in his last outing against the Braves and he has had trouble with this Braves lineup in the past, but that doesn’t mean he’s due for a beating in this game.

Atlanta doesn’t hit lefties particularly well, so the team should be able to get to Anderson in this game — but not in a way that will jeopardize this Over.

Meanwhile, Morton has a great matchup with the Brewers today. The righty has some bad stretches here and there, but he’s a very good pitcher and does a good job of missing bats. This Brewers team strikes out a lot, meaning he should help Under bettors here.

PREDICTION: Under 9 (-110)

Brewers vs Braves betting card

  • Braves ML (-154)
  • Under 9 (-110)

Picks made on 8/1/2021 at 12:11 a.m. ET

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