Today’s MLB Prop Bets, Picks and Predictions: Boston A Bad Matchup For McClanahan's K Totals

We've scoured the land to find the best MLB prop picks as the calendar flips to August. Today's plays are highlighted by fireballer Shane McClanahan struggling against the Sox, Austin Riley staying hot, and everybody mashing in San Francisco.

Posted: Aug 1, 2021 8:12 AM ET Updated: Aug 1, 2021 8:12 AM ET Est Time: 5 min
Shane McClanahan Tampa Bay Rays MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The trade deadline is past and that means that the playoff races are tightening up and with it: numerous exploitable prop markets. We've found some of MLB’s best props and side bets for the day, doing all the heavy lifting so you don’t have to. If there’s a line on it, we’ll look into it.

We fell one strikeout away from sweeping the board yesterday and are looking to keep the winners coming as the calendar flips to August. Today, we’re riding both offenses in San Francisco, betting on a Braves’ bat and fading one of the best new left-handers in the game.

Check out our favorite MLB free prop bets and predictions for Sunday, August 1, 2021.

Today’s MLB props and picks

Houston vs. San Francisco - Both teams to score four runs (+300)

The Houston Astros and San Francisco Giants have switched the pitching difficulty to easy mode this weekend, as they have scored 29 combined runs over the series’ first two games. The Astros won 9-6 on Friday, as both Kevin Gausman and Framber Valdez got touched up. On Saturday, it was Zack Greinke and Alex Wood’s turn to face the hot bats in a Giants' 8-6 win.

Even both bullpens have been tagged in this, series as the Astros’ relievers have a 6.75 ERA while the usually steady Giants’ pen has given up seven runs over 8 2-3 innings of work for a 7.27 ERA. Oracle Park isn’t known as a hitters park, but these two division leaders didn’t get the memo.

With a pair of teams who are hitting over .300 combined in the series, and already having success against the opposing team’s best starters, it almost feels like Sunday’s starters are irrelevant with the way these guys are handling the wood.

Both teams to score three runs is paying -115 but we’re looking for a bigger payout on Sunday and taking both teams to score four runs for +300.

Austin Riley Over 0.5 runs (-130)

The Braves have been just good enough that the front office decided to be buyers and not sellers at the trade deadline. A lot of the confidence in the team has come from an offense that, despite losing megastar Ronald Acuna Jr., has scored the third-most runs in baseball since the All-Star break. They’ve loaded up with Adam Duvall and Jorge Soler but it’s their own 2015 first-round draft pick, Austin Riley, who is leading this team offensively.

Over his last 15 games, the third baseman is slashing .340/.422/.792 with seven home runs and 11 runs scored. Over the last seven days, those numbers improved to .360/.448/.960 with seven runs scored and five homers.

Riley hits out of the clean-up spot but now has Duvall, Soler, and Dansby Swanson hitting right behind him, which could mean even more runs for the 24-year old. Duvall and Soler have each taken Milwaukee starter Brett Anderson long in limited at-bats.

With Riley getting on base at a near-.500 clip, swatting home runs, and being protected behind him, we are putting our money on the Atlanta infielder to score another run on Sunday as this offense looks to stay hot.

Shane McClanahan Under 6.5 strikeouts (+100)

Lefty Shane McClanahan will get the start for the Rays in their primetime matchup with the Boston Red Sox on Sunday night. The game has big implications in the standings as the Sox are a half-game behind the Rays for the division lead.

The rookie left-hander has been electric since coming up back in late April, and recently he has 13 strikeouts over his last two starts (11 innings) and topped his K prop in both those matches. His strikeout total sits at 6.5 heading into Sunday night... but there are a few things that make us second guess hitting that Over button.

First, McClanahan has not been an efficient pitcher and has completed six innings just once in his last five starts. He runs the count up early and has struggled with walks of late. Guys in TB get a short leash to begin with and if that pitch count rises early, it will be tough to reach seven strikeouts.

Second, the Red Sox are a heavy LHP-hitting team. On the season, Boston is striking out against LHP at a 21.6-percent rate, which is the fifth-lowest mark in baseball. They are also a top-nine team in wRC+ vs lefties.

We love McClanahan’s stuff, but the price is too high for our liking.

MLB betting card for August 1

  • Houston vs. San Francisco - Both teams to score four runs (+300)
  • Austin Riley Over 0.5 runs (-130)
  • Shane McClanahan Under 6.5 strikeouts (+100)

Picks made on 8/1/2021 at 7:46 a.m. ET

MLB parlays

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Where can I bet on MLB props?

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