The Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox begin a three-game set at Fenway Park tonight.
Although both teams have strong starters on the hill, Boston hits significantly better against lefties, which is why my Braves vs. Red Sox predictions are backing the home side.
Here are my best MLB picks for this interleague clash on Friday, May 16.
Braves vs Red Sox prediction
My Braves vs Red Sox best bet: Red Sox moneyline (-110 at DraftKings)
The Boston Red Sox are coming off a series where they were swept in Detroit. That said, I like them to get back in the win column as they return home to face the Atlanta Braves, who have gone just 7-15 on the road.
Both of these teams will have elite southpaws on the mound. Atlanta will give the pill to reigning Cy Young winner Chris Sale, while Boston will have Garrett Crochet, who boasts the second-best AL Cy Young odds this year.
However, Sale has a 3.97 ERA with an OBA of .281 this year, which is significantly worse than Crochet's numbers. Crochet has pitched to a sparkling 1.93 ERA with an OBA of .192 through nine starts.
The Braves have struggled at the dish and have been even worse against lefties, batting just .204 with an OPS of .615. Meanwhile, the BoSox are second in the majors in batting average (.273) against southpaws while boasting an OPS of .772.
Braves vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Red Sox moneyline
First five innings Under 4.5
Chris Sale 8+ strikeouts
While I expect Crochet to contain Atlanta's lineup, Boston won't have an easy time scoring early either. The Red Sox have gone below their first five innings team total in 12 of the last 18 home games.
Sale's numbers have dropped off a bit from last season, but his expected ERA of 3.22 indicates we'll see positive regression.
The veteran southpaw sits in the top 15th percentile in strikeout rate, chase rate, and whiff rate. He should eclipse his strikeouts prop against a Boston lineup that ranks 27th in strikeout rate and 28th in whiff rate.
Braves vs Red Sox odds
Braves vs Red Sox live odds
Braves vs Red Sox opening odds
- Moneyline: Atlanta +110 | Boston -130
- Run line: Atlanta +1.5 (-210) | Boston -1.5 (+175)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)
Braves vs Red Sox trend
The Braves have gone below their team total in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 52% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Braves vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Friday, 5-16-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN, NESN |
| Braves starting pitcher | Chris Sale (1-3, 3.97 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Garrett Crochet (4-2, 1.93 ERA) |
Braves vs Red Sox latest injuries
Braves vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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