The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies resume their series on Thursday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park after having their contest postponed on Wednesday.
Both clubs have been on fire with Atlanta entering play on a seven-game win streak, while Philly had its own six-game run snapped in the series opener.
Bryce Elder will get the ball for the visitors as he looks to build on his impressive start to the season. Can he help Atlanta push its win streak to eight?
I break it all down in my Braves vs. Phillies MLB picks for Thursday, June 22.
Braves vs Phillies odds
Braves vs Phillies predictions
The Atlanta Braves took the series opener by a score of 4-2 as they benefited from yet another strong pitching performance — this time from Spencer Strider.
Atlanta has surrendered 3.71 runs per game during its win streak, allowing three runs or fewer in four of the last five contests.
Strong pitching has been a common theme for the Braves all season as they hold a team ERA of 3.74 — the fourth-best mark in the majors — and we can probably expect that to continue today as Bryce Elder takes the mound.
Elder’s 2.60 ERA ranks fifth among all starters as he’s given up two earned runs or fewer in 10 of his 14 outings this season. The right-hander has hit a rough patch in June, allowing 12 hits, three homers, and nine earned runs across his first two starts of the month, though we saw him rebound last time out.
He held the Rockies to just four hits and one earned run over six innings on June 17 — the kind of outing we’ve already come to expect from the 24-year-old.
My best bet: Phillies team total Under 4.5 (-145 at DraftKings)
Braves vs Phillies same-game parlay
Phillies team total Under 4.5 (-145)
Braves team total Over 4.5 (+100)
Eddie Rosario to record an RBI (+225)
While the Philadelphia Phillies have struggled offensively, the Braves are going the other way, averaging a whopping 8.57 runs per contest during their seven-game win streak. Aaron Nola has allowed at least four earned runs in each of his last two outings and I don’t foresee his fortunes changing against a high-powered Atlanta offense.
Eddie Rosario has been doing plenty of damage for the Braves with a team-leading 19 RBI in June and is just a few days removed from a three-hit, six-RBI outing against the Rockies. The left fielder has driven in at least one run in four of his last five appearances and should stay hot against Nola and the Phillies.
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Braves vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Braves opened as the road favorite at -125 but were bumped down to around -115 at most books by Wednesday night. With the team streaking and Elder giving them a big advantage over Aaron Nola, I think the visitors are the smart bet today.
While Elder has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last nine starts, Nola has allowed a combined 10 earned runs over his last two. The Phillies starter has also given up at least four runs in six of his last nine games — a trend that doesn’t bode well against a Braves offense that ranks third in the majors with 5.47 runs per game.
Atlanta has been scorching at the plate of late, too, scoring at least six runs in six of their seven games during the win streak. Rosario (19 RBI) and Ozzie Albies (17 RBI) have been two of the hottest hitters in baseball, ranking third and fifth, respectively, for runs driven in this month.
The total for the ballgame opened at 9 runs and I think the Under gets the slight nod here despite Atlanta’s strong offense.
Elder has been solid and the Phillies have been pretty mediocre offensively this season despite boasting some weapons at the top of the order, scoring four runs or fewer in five of their last six games.
Meanwhile, the Under is 5-0-1 in the Phillies’ last six games and 4-0 in Elder’s last four road starts with the total set at 9+ runs.
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Trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in Elder’s last four starts vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies
Braves vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Thursday, June 22, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Bryce Elder (5-1, 2.60 ERA): Elder does own some worrying underlying stats with a 3.91 xERA and a 44.4% hard-hit rate, but has generally managed to avoid getting himself into too much trouble. The 24-year-old is having his worst month of the season with a 5.19 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP while having allowed four homers in three starts.
Taijuan Walker (7-3, 4.31 ERA): Nola has really struggled to find much consistency this year as he’s yet to hold opponents to two earned runs or fewer in consecutive starts so far. His best stretch of play came in April when he posted a 3.58 ERA over five starts but that number has ballooned back up to 4.50 in June as he’s surrendered 14 hits and 10 earned runs over his last three outings.
