Braves vs Nationals Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today’s MLB Game

AJ Smith-Shawver is making an early case for Rookie of the Year and it's his strikeouts prop that will put the Atlanta Braves in a position to possibly succeed against the Washington Nationals.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
May 22, 2025 • 12:54 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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AJ Smith-Shawver Atlanta Braves MLB
Photo By - Imagn Images. Atlanta Braves pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver (32) pitches against the Washington Nationals.

After being rained out yesterday, the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals wrap up a short series tonight in the nation's capital. Atlanta has a Rookie of the Year candidate in pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver and my Braves vs. Nationals predictions are backing him on his strikeouts prop.

Here are my best free MLB picks for this NL East showdown on Thursday, May 22.

Braves vs Nationals prediction

My Braves vs Nationals best bet: AJ Smith-Shawver Over 4.5 strikeouts (-140 at SportsInteraction)

Atlanta Braves rookie AJ Smith-Shawver has pitched to a sparkling 2.33 ERA with an OBA of .218 through seven starts. That said, there are some concerning underlying metrics since he's in the bottom 20th percentile in hard-hit rate and expected ERA (4.88). 

While the 22-year-old gives up too much hard contact, he does an excellent job of making batters miss. He's in the top 35th percentile in strikeout rate and chase rate, while sitting in the top 25th percentile in whiff rate. 

Smith-Shawver has a heater that averages 95.3 mph and his most devastating weapon is a splitter which generates whiffs at a 44.6% rate. That arsenal has helped him rack up 5+ punchouts in each of his last six starts. 

The Washington Nationals are a middle-of-the-pack squad when it comes to striking out but they rank 23rd in chase rate (28.9%). Smith-Shawyer's previous outing came against the Nats last week, when he fanned six and allowed just a pair of hits across six innings. 

Braves vs Nationals same-game parlay (SGP)

AJ Smith-Shawver 5+ strikeouts

Under 8.5

Josh Bell Under 0.5 runs

The total opened at just 7.5 and was quickly bet up to 8.5. That puts the value on the Under with how well Smith-Shawver has been pitching. Keep in mind that Nats starter Trevor Williams has a far better xERA (3.62) than ERA (5.91). Meanwhile, Atlanta is 16-5 to the Under in its last 21 games.

Since I'm betting on a low-scoring game and expecting Smith-Shawver to deal, it makes sense to fade a Washington player on his runs prop in this SGP.

Josh Bell seems like a good candidate since he's batting .155 and has plated 14 runs in 41 games. Bell has scored has scored in just three of his last 15 contests. 

Braves vs Nationals odds

Braves vs Nationals live odds

Braves vs Nationals opening odds

  • Moneyline: Atlanta -150 | Washington +125
  • Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+110) | Washington +1.5 (-130)
  • Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)

Braves vs Nationals trend

The Nationals have hit the first five innings Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.17 Units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Nationals.

How to watch Braves vs Nationals and game info

Location Nationals Park, Washington, DC
Date Thursday, 5-22-2025
First pitch 6:45 p.m. ET
TV FanDuel Sports Network South, MASN2
Braves starting pitcher Chris Sale
(2-3, 3.62 ERA)
Nationals starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore
(2-4, 3.67 ERA)

Braves vs Nationals latest injuries

Braves vs Nationals weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez. You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports. Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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