After being rained out yesterday, the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals wrap up a short series tonight in the nation's capital. Atlanta has a Rookie of the Year candidate in pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver and my Braves vs. Nationals predictions are backing him on his strikeouts prop.
Here are my best free MLB picks for this NL East showdown on Thursday, May 22.
Braves vs Nationals prediction
My Braves vs Nationals best bet: AJ Smith-Shawver Over 4.5 strikeouts (-140 at SportsInteraction)
Atlanta Braves rookie AJ Smith-Shawver has pitched to a sparkling 2.33 ERA with an OBA of .218 through seven starts. That said, there are some concerning underlying metrics since he's in the bottom 20th percentile in hard-hit rate and expected ERA (4.88).
While the 22-year-old gives up too much hard contact, he does an excellent job of making batters miss. He's in the top 35th percentile in strikeout rate and chase rate, while sitting in the top 25th percentile in whiff rate.
Smith-Shawver has a heater that averages 95.3 mph and his most devastating weapon is a splitter which generates whiffs at a 44.6% rate. That arsenal has helped him rack up 5+ punchouts in each of his last six starts.
The Washington Nationals are a middle-of-the-pack squad when it comes to striking out but they rank 23rd in chase rate (28.9%). Smith-Shawyer's previous outing came against the Nats last week, when he fanned six and allowed just a pair of hits across six innings.
Braves vs Nationals same-game parlay (SGP)
AJ Smith-Shawver 5+ strikeouts
Under 8.5
Josh Bell Under 0.5 runs
The total opened at just 7.5 and was quickly bet up to 8.5. That puts the value on the Under with how well Smith-Shawver has been pitching. Keep in mind that Nats starter Trevor Williams has a far better xERA (3.62) than ERA (5.91). Meanwhile, Atlanta is 16-5 to the Under in its last 21 games.
Since I'm betting on a low-scoring game and expecting Smith-Shawver to deal, it makes sense to fade a Washington player on his runs prop in this SGP.
Josh Bell seems like a good candidate since he's batting .155 and has plated 14 runs in 41 games. Bell has scored has scored in just three of his last 15 contests.
Braves vs Nationals odds
Braves vs Nationals live odds
Braves vs Nationals opening odds
- Moneyline: Atlanta -150 | Washington +125
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+110) | Washington +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Braves vs Nationals trend
The Nationals have hit the first five innings Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.17 Units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Nationals.
How to watch Braves vs Nationals and game info
| Location | Nationals Park, Washington, DC |
| Date | Thursday, 5-22-2025 |
| First pitch | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network South, MASN2 |
| Braves starting pitcher | Chris Sale (2-3, 3.62 ERA) |
| Nationals starting pitcher | MacKenzie Gore (2-4, 3.67 ERA) |
Braves vs Nationals latest injuries
Braves vs Nationals weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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