The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets will begin a four-game series in the Big Apple this weekend.
Over the years, with the two teams routinely chasing one another in the division, this has been a hotly-contested matchup with much at stake. Those times have changed, at least this season, as the Mets sold at the trade deadline. That makes the aspect of the Mets playing better than the Braves coming into this series ironic.
New York enters things with a series win over the Chicago Cubs, while Atlanta just split one with the Pittsburgh Pirates and has dropped six of its last eight overall.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Mets on Friday, August 11.
Braves vs Mets odds
Braves vs Mets predictions
The Braves were always going to regress offensively.
The numbers they put up before the All-Star break were historical in every way and just needed to be more sustainable. They saw some of that and have since returned to their pre-All-Star form, scoring an average of over six runs in their last games. Along with the up-and-down waves of the Atlanta offense, its pitching has declined. Metric-defying Bryce Elder is no longer getting it done, and older pitchers like the one taking the mound tonight in Charlie Morton have had issues in their most recent starts. That's what makes tonight so tough to decide on a side.
On the surface, the Braves are well-poised to hit Tylor Megill hard. Atlanta has the best power in their lineup by any definable metric, and hard-hit balls have been a major issue for Megill all season. However, knowing that looming regression is still to come for Atlanta, along with just some natural bad luck, makes me pause. I will stay away from a side or total and go with what I feel has the most data behind it. That best bet is Morton Over 2.5 walks.
Morton has had an issue with walks this season, particularly ones leading off an inning that eventually lead to a cascading effect. His walk rate is in the Bottom 17% in baseball among all qualified pitchers, and significantly worse among starting ones. The 10.7% walk rate is the second-highest of his career, nearly surpassing the 11.2% rate he posted in his second season in the big leagues in 2006. He's gone Over this number in four straight starts, including both times he's faced this Mets team.
The Mets are poised to make it three straight against Morton tonight. The offense has been bad throughout the season, but they have avoided free swings and easy outs. New York has the sixth-lowest chase rate in the majors. Morton has faced the five teams ahead of them in such metrics four times and exceeded this number in three of those starts. The Mets have the second-lowest swing rate in the majors. Morton faced the only team ahead of them in the San Diego Padres earlier this season and issued three walks in that start.
While this may be a bit of a sweat, it's undoubtedly my favorite bet on the board. The numbers point to it firmly, and my projections align closely. If New York doesn't chase Morton early from the game — and there's not much to suggest they would — then this should comfortably cash within five innings.
My best bet: Charlie Morton Over 2.5 Walks (+100 at bet365)
Braves vs Mets same-game parlay
Charlie Morton Over 2.5 Walks
Over 9.5
Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Leading off our same-game parlay is the aforementioned best bet of Morton to issue three or more walks. In doing so, we're backing the status quo to continue for Morton against a team that has illustrated some good patience at the plate all season.
The second leg of our same-game parlay will be the Over 9.5. These pitchers have issues. I've highlighted them above, but what's unique about this matchup is that each team is built specifically to attack the weakness of each pitcher.
Morton struggles against teams that are patient at the plate. Megill gives up lots of hard contact. Unless you've been living under a rock, you know about the power of the Braves lineup. They are the only team in baseball that has spent the entirety of the season ranking in the Top 5 of hard-hit rate, exit velocity, and barrel rate. I'm expecting runs, even if that means that one team does most of the heavy lifting in this one.
The last leg is the ever-reliable Ronald Acuna Jr. total bases prop. The future National League MVP has had a fantastic season, and he's gone Over this number six times in his last 10. In addition to that, he has a good track record against the Mets historically. I'm backing him to do what he's done most of the season against bad pitching and continue compiling stats for a historic year.
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Braves vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis
I certainly lean toward the Braves. And you certainly can't deny their 9-1 record against New York over the last 10 games.
The Mets have played much better lately, but you can't overstate how one team in this matchup is essentially playing the rest of their season out for nothing while the other has plenty to play for. That includes a potential best record in the MLB at the season's end. Atlanta also has the better pitcher on the mound in the most basic sense. Sure, Morton has had issues, but he's been much more stable than the one who opposes him in Megill, who has given up nine runs combined in his previous two starts.
With that said, there's not enough of an edge for me to lay the juice on the best available line of -170 here. I'd be more inclined to take the Braves on the run line at -105, where my projections calculate a slight edge. However, the better angle is to wait for a live spot. Atlanta has played some quite topsy-turvy games as of late, as to be expected with such a heavy contrast between its offense and pitching. With that in mind, we may get the opportunity to back them trailing, a chance that I would gladly grab.
As mentioned above, I'm expecting runs tonight, so I included them in my same-game parlay. In addition to that, I am placing a unit on the Over 9.5 at -112 over at DraftKings for a stand-alone play. We talked about the two suspect pitchers on the mound that make us like this play, but there are also some favorable trends.
The last two meetings between these two teams have both gone Over. In addition, the previous two starts for Mets right-hander Megill have gone Over. There's a lot to like in this spot, and I expect the fireworks between these teams to continue tonight.
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Trend to know
Charlie Morton has issued three or more walks in four straight starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs Mets
Braves vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date: | Friday, August 11, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Charlie Morton (10-10, 3.86 ERA): Morton has looked his age at times this season. On the one hand, the Braves have to be happy to have such a veteran presence being part of the rotation, but on the other hand, they have to be a bit disappointed in the results. Especially the results that have come as of late.
He's going to give up an average number of runs with the occasional blow-up, and if you're the Braves, you're hoping he can turn back the clock for a few starts in the postseason. A walk rate near the bottom of baseball has been an underdiscussed aspect of his struggles this season.
Tylor Megill (6-5, 5.45 ERA): It's been a rough season for Megill, and the metrics say it all. Highlighting them is an expected batting average that is among the Bottom 5% of baseball for any qualified pitchers, along with a whiff rate that could be much better.
He hasn't given up a ton of longballs (although he did give up two in his previous start), but he's surrendered a lot of hard-hit ones. In his most previous start against the Braves in April, they hit him for three earned runs in five innings.
