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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 11, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.24 |
+165 
|
o8.0 -115 
|
+1.5 -125 
|
|
4.77 |
-190 
|
u8.5 -120 
|
-1.5 +115
|
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 road games.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0-1 in Imanagas last 5 starts with 6 days of rest.
- Over is 6-0 in Imanagas last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Total RBIs (+223)
o0.5+223
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.70 |
+160
|
o7.5 -125 
|
+1.5 -132
|
|
4.81 |
-184 
|
u8.5 -117
|
-1.5 +120
|
Colorado
- Under is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 7-1 in Rockies last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 5-1 in Rockies last 6 overall.
Detroit
- Under is 6-0-1 in Tigers last 7 vs. National League West.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Valdezs last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Valdezs last 4 starts as a favorite.
Top Projection
Colt Keith u0.5 Total Hits (+170)
u0.5+170
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.01 |
+132
|
o7.5 -114
|
+1.5 -160 
|
|
4.49 |
-143
|
u8.0 -105
|
-1.5 +143
|
LA Angels
- Under is 5-0 in Angels last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Angels last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Angels last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Kikuchis last 4 starts as an underdog.
Washington
- Under is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Nationals are 7-0 in Cavallis last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Nationals are 5-0 in Cavallis last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Nationals last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
o0.5+220
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.82 |
+120
|
o7.5 -132
|
+1.5 -182
|
|
5.02 |
-138
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +160
|
NY Mets
- Under is 5-0-2 in McLeans last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mets are 5-0 in McLeans last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0-1 in Mets last 8 games following a win.
- Over is 5-0 in Mets last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Austin Wells o0.5 Total RBIs (+257)
o0.5+260
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.81 |
+115
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.60 |
-125
|
u8.5 -128
|
-1.5 +168
|
Baltimore
- Over is 7-0 in Bassitts last 7 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Bassitts last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 on astroturf.
- Over is 8-0 in Bassitts last 8 road starts.
Toronto
- Under is 4-0-1 in Scherzers last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Scherzers last 4 starts on astroturf.
Top Projection
Jesus Sanchez o0.5 Total RBIs (+275)
o0.5+275
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.30 |
+146
|
o7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -145
|
|
4.40 |
-170
|
u7.5 +100
|
-1.5 +130
|
Houston
- Over is 2-0-2 in Astros last 4 road games.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Astros last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0-2 in Astros last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 6-0 in Rasmussens last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Rays are 8-0 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Rays are 9-0 in Rasmussens last 9 starts.
- Over is 5-0 in Rays last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Top Projection
Miguel Ullola o1.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+125)
o1.5+125
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.96 |
-209
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 -118
|
|
3.15 |
+180
|
u8.0 -139
|
+1.5 +105
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 7-0 in their last 7 overall.
- Dodgers are 7-0 in their last 7 games on grass.
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 games following a win.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 road games.
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 home games.
- Under is 6-0 in Gustos last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
Top Projection
Otto Lopez o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
o0.5+330
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.25 |
+170
|
o8.5 +100
|
+1.5 -125
|
|
5.26 |
-200
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +110
|
Kansas City
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 on grass.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Lugos last 4 starts as a favorite.
Boston
- Red Sox are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. American League Central.
- Red Sox are 7-0 in Grays last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 7-1 in Grays last 8 starts as a favorite.
Top Projection
Salvador Perez o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
o0.5+185
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.95 |
+160
|
o5.0 -500
|
+1.5 -138
|
|
4.94 |
-190
|
u7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +125
|
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 5-0 in Nolas last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Nolas last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Nolas last 4 road starts.
- Under is 7-1-2 in Nolas last 10 starts vs. National League East.
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0-1 in Sales last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Sales last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 starts on grass.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
J.T. Realmuto o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+167)
o1.5+167
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.93 |
+170
|
o7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -125
|
|
4.53 |
-190
|
u8.5 -132
|
-1.5 +120
|
Cincinnati
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 7-1 in Reds last 8 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 6-1 in Reds last 7 road games.
- Over is 6-1 in Reds last 7 games as a road underdog.
Milwaukee
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Brewers are 8-1 in Harrisons last 9 home starts.
- Over is 5-1 in Harrisons last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Brewers are 8-2 in Harrisons last 10 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.52 |
-120
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
4.10 |
+105
|
u7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -164
|
Cleveland
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Messicks last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Guardians are 7-1 in Messicks last 8 starts as an underdog.
Minnesota
- Twins are 5-0 in Bradleys last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Under is 5-0 in Bradleys last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Bradleys last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Twins are 4-0 in Bradleys last 4 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Jo Adell o0.5 Total RBIs (+158)
o0.5+165
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.35 |
-110
|
o8.0 -114
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.92 |
-104
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +150
|
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- White Sox are 4-0 in Kays last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Kays last 4 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Kays last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Liberatores last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts a home underdog.
Top Projection
Joshua Baez o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
o0.5+215
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.92 |
+114
|
o8.5 -150
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
5.03 |
-130
|
u9.5 -130
|
-1.5 +160
|
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Rangers last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Arizona
- Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 overall.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 on grass.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Corey Seager o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
o0.5+185
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.72 |
-165
|
o9.5 -120
|
-1.5 -105
|
|
5.15 |
+145
|
u10.5 -125
|
+1.5 -113
|
Seattle
- Over is 6-0 in Kirbys last 6 starts vs. American League West.
- Over is 4-0 in Kirbys last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Kirbys last 4 road starts.
- Over is 5-1 in Kirbys last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
Athletics
- Over is 6-0 in Springs' last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Springs' last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 5-0 in Springs' last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 7-0 in Springs' last 7 home starts.
Top Projection
Taylor Ward o0.5 Total Home Runs (+600)
o0.5+600
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.88 |
-140
|
o7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +120
|
|
3.87 |
+125
|
u8.0 -110
|
+1.5 -135
|
San Diego
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 starts on grass.
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
San Francisco
- Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 games a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Manny Machado o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
o0.5+164
PIT
@
CHC
Fri, Sep 11 • 2:20 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Rafael Flores Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+500)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Shota Imanaga is one of my favorite hit-list pitchers. He's good, but he gives up dingers, which can give us some hidden value. Just in the second half, 30% of his hits allowed have left the yard. That's 11 dingers in 35+ innings. Over the last two seasons, only Zack Littell has allowed more homers than the Chicago lefty. I'm going out on a limb a little on this one and settling on the lesser-known Rafael Flores Jr. at 16.7%. He leads the Pirates in slugging and home runs (7) over the last 30 days and is handling left-handed pitching well, which is getting him into the middle of the order. It's an afternoon Friday game at Wrigley, which has been a shrine for dingers this year. Shota has been good to me all season long.
Total
u8.5 (-120)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
This Under 8.5 is in play to -125 because Cubs southpaw Shota Imanaga has held the Pirates to a minuscule .345 OPS across six starts, and Pittsburgh also ranks 25th in wOBA with the second-highest strikeout percentage against lefties. So, with the wind blowing in modestly at Wrigley Field this afternoon, I'm not anticipating the Pirates doing their part to send this total Over the number.
COL
@
DET
Fri, Sep 11 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Riley Greene o0.5 Total Home Runs (+405)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
The Colorado pitching staff has made us some money this week, and I'm staying there again today with Blake Adams getting the ball. This is a Triple-A arm who was a 13th-round pick. He has a 7.91 ERA in Albuquerque and will give way to arguably the worst bullpen in baseball. It's time to find a good bat at a good price for the Tigers. It didn't take long to land on Riley Greene at 20%. He owns a .710 slugging percentage over the last 30 days with a team-high three taters. That's the fifth-best slugging rate in baseball over that span, and his BlastContact% ranks in the top 25. Fade the Rockies until Game 162.
Total RBIs
Gleyber Torres o0.5 Total RBIs (+221)
Projection 0.46
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gleyber Torres in the 80th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Gleyber Torres is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Among all major league parks, Comerica Park has the lowest average fence height.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Gleyber Torres will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
LAA
@
WAS
Fri, Sep 11 • 6:45 PM ET
Total RBIs
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 9th-best batter in the majors.. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. Nationals Park has the 6th-shallowest fences in the league — generally good for long-balls.. Hitters such as Mike Trout with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Cade Cavalli who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.. The Washington Nationals infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams on the slate today.
Strikeouts Thrown
Cade Cavalli u6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+108)
Projection 6.01
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Nationals Park projects as the #21 park in baseball for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Given the 0.57 difference between Cade Cavalli's 10.49 K/9 and his 9.92 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game this year when it comes to strikeouts and should see negative regression in the future.
NYM
@
NYY
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Carson Benge o0.5 Total Home Runs (+675)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Carlos Rodon leans heavily on the fastball-slider combination, and that’s what Carson Benge hits best against lefties.
He owns a .398 wOBA, .254 ISO, and 18.2% barrel rate when facing fastballs or sliders thrown by southpaws. All of his home runs vs. lefties this season have come against those two pitches.
Total
u8.5 (-123)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The New York Mets sit 27th in BA, 26th in OBP, and 22nd in OPS vs. lefties. Carlos Rodon is poised to take a step back, but the Mets are an unlikely candidate to put forth a true ceiling performance against him.
McLean has posted an impressive a 2.39 ERA and 2.70 xERA on the road this season, and given up just two barrels the past month. He’ll make it tough on a New York Yankees offense that relies heavily on the longball.
Back the Under to 56%.
BAL
@
TOR
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:07 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jesus Sanchez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+675)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
Moneyline
TOR (-125)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
HOU
@
TB
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Jonathan Aranda u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
Projection 0.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Total Hits
Victor Mesa Jr. u0.5 Total Hits (+130)
Projection 0.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Victor Mesa Jr. in the 17th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. Victor Mesa Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.. In the past two weeks, Victor Mesa Jr.'s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.2% down to 0%.. Over the last 14 days, Victor Mesa Jr.'s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal average of 91.7 mph to 82.1 mph.. Victor Mesa Jr. has put up a .242 BABIP this year, placing in the 21st percentile.
LAD
@
MIA
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:10 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Will Smith o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-125)
Projection 2.13
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Will Smith ranks as the 17th-best batter in the league.. Will Smith is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Will Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 6th-shallowest CF fences today.. Will Smith's launch angle lately (38° over the past week) is considerably better than his 20.4° seasonal mark.. Compared to last season, Will Smith has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 18% to 21% this season.
Total Bases
Heriberto Hernandez u1.5 Total Bases (-260)
Projection 0.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects LoanDepot Park as the worst park in the majors for righty home runs.. LoanDepot Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output.. This contest is forecasted to have the 3rd-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Heriberto Hernandez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.3% — 93rd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 9th-deepest LF fences today.. Ranking in the 11th percentile, Heriberto Hernandez has notched a .254 BABIP this year.
KC
@
BOS
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:10 PM ET
Spread
BOS -1.5 (+112)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Sonny Gray gives Boston a sizable starting-pitching advantage over Seth Lugo, whose 5.04 ERA makes him difficult to trust against this lineup at Fenway. Gray owns a 2.69 ERA with 17 wins, and Boston has the superior late-inning path. With the moneyline too expensive, I’ll lay the 1.5 runs instead.
Total Bases
Bobby Witt Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Projection 2.01
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bobby Witt Jr. as the 2nd-best hitter in Major League Baseball as it relates to his batting average talent.. Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The #3 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Bobby Witt Jr. has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.. Over the last 7 days, Bobby Witt Jr.'s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.2% up to 28.6%.
PHI
@
ATL
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Kyle Schwarber o0.5 Total Home Runs (+319)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Kyle Schwarber remains a serious power threat with four homers over his last seven games and a .444 ISO during that stretch. His hard-hit and barrel numbers remain excellent, while Atlanta’s struggling bullpen gives him another opportunity to go deep even if Sale handles him early.
Total
o7.5 (+107)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
The Over is driven by late-game volatility. Atlanta’s bullpen has struggled badly lately while allowing plenty of home-run damage, and Philadelphia’s relief corps has similar issues. Both offenses are cold, but vulnerable bullpens create enough scoring paths once the starters leave.
CIN
@
MIL
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:45 PM ET
Total Bases
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+142)
Projection 1.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his BABIP talent, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. American Family Field profiles as the #8 stadium in the majors for lefty base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In MLB, American Family Field has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense.
Total RBIs
Tyler Stephenson o0.5 Total RBIs (+268)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 86th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Tyler Stephenson is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.. American Family Field profiles as the #8 ballpark in baseball for righty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In MLB, American Family Field has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense.
CLE
@
MIN
Fri, Sep 11 • 8:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Royce Lewis o0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
Projection 0.49
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Royce Lewis in the 84th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Royce Lewis is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Hitting from the opposite that Parker Messick throws from, Royce Lewis will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Royce Lewis will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Jo Adell o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Jo Adell ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jo Adell is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest among all the teams today.. Despite posting a .302 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jo Adell has had bad variance on his side given the .023 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .325.
CHW
@
STL
Fri, Sep 11 • 8:15 PM ET
Moneyline
STL (-105)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
I was on the White Sox yesterday, but it's a different story today. They just got swept at home by the Pirates and put up a donut last night. Now they have a tough travel spot, opening a series against the Cardinals today. The Cardinals have a fair probability of 58.3%, per THE BAT, and are the best +EV ML on the board today. Matthew Liberatore's 5.57 ERA might scare some away on the surface, but his 3.22 xFIP in the second half is the 24th-best mark among all starters, while his .373 BABIP and 56.6% LOB% are unsustainable. Chicago is also missing one of its best arms, lefty Hagen Smith, who threw 33 pitches last night. Chicago has clenched butt cheeks right now, and that division lead is slipping. This roster knows nothing about adversity, and it could be an ugly finish.
Total Bases
Miguel Vargas o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Miguel Vargas ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Miguel Vargas is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 7th-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Miguel Vargas will have an advantage today.
TEX
@
AZ
Fri, Sep 11 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Joc Pederson o0.5 Total Home Runs (+330)
Eric Rosales
Betting Analyst
Rangers DH Joc Pederson has traditionally hit Merrill Kelly hard, though he's yet to homer off him in 28 career at-bats. Pederson, who leads the Rangers in homers with 26, is hitting .286 against Kelly, picking up two doubles and two triples in his eight hits.
Moneyline
AZ (-123)
Eric Rosales
Betting Analyst
SEA
@
ATH
Fri, Sep 11 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Randy Arozarena o0.5 Total Home Runs (+356)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
You can never go wrong searching for dingers at Sutter Health Park, especially with 11-mph winds blowing out to center field. Pitching there is never fun, but it's even worse for Jeffrey Springs. The lefty owns a 7.18 ERA at home this year with a 2.8 HR/9 compared to 1.7 HR/9 on the road. Since June, he has allowed 14 homers at home across 31+ innings. Randy Arozarena at 22% is the price and bat I'm landing on. His homer rate against lefties is better than against right-handers, and he has already gone deep seven times over the last 30 days with a solid .515 SLG%. It's tough to go wrong with the right-handed Seattle bats in this matchup and setting.
Total Bases
Julio Rodriguez o1.5 Total Bases (-114)
Projection 2.36
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 14th-best batter in MLB when it comes to his batting average ability.. Julio Rodriguez is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game.. The #2 ballpark in MLB for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Sutter Health Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 96°.
SD
@
SF
Fri, Sep 11 • 10:15 PM ET
Total RBIs
Jake Cronenworth o0.5 Total RBIs (+244)
Projection 0.46
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Jake Cronenworth is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. The shallowest RF fences in the league are found in Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.8-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Batting from the opposite that Anthony Molina throws from, Jake Cronenworth will have an edge today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jake Cronenworth's true offensive talent to be a .303, implying that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .038 disparity between that figure and his actual .265 wOBA.
Total RBIs
Manny Machado o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.7
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Manny Machado ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.8-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Manny Machado has made substantial gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 10.1% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the last 7 days.. Manny Machado has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph to 93.1-mph over the last week.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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