The Atlanta Braves will look to sweep the Milwaukee Brewers and their sleepy bats Sunday in what will be the third and final game of the series.
Sunday’s matinee will feature arguably the best pitching matchup on the board as a pair of sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP pitchers will duel in Atlanta’s Huascar Ynoa and Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta.
Oddsmakers opened the Brewers as MLB betting favorites but the game is now just a pick'em. The total sits at 7, shaded to the Over.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers for Sunday, May 16, with first pitch set for 2:10 p.m. ET.
Braves vs Brewers game info
• Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Sunday, May 16, 2021
• Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
• TV: BS-WI, BS-S
Braves vs Brewers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonThe Brewers opened as -124 favorites overnight at FanDuel, dropped to -112 this morning, then steadily climbed to -142, which is where the moneyline sits at 12:30 p.m. ET. However, the Braves are attracting 67 percent of bets and 70 percent of money. The total has been stable at 7, save for a few minutes at 7.5, and it's currently 7 (Over -114), with ticket count 3/1 and money 4/1 on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameBraves vs Brewers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Huascar Ynoa (4-1, 2.23 ERA): The Braves seem to be a pitcher factory as 22-year-old Ynoa has turned into the team’s ace in his third year in the Bigs. Ynoa hasn’t allowed more than four hits in six of his seven starts and comes into Sunday’s game hot, having given up just 14 hits and three earned runs over his previous four starts.
Freddy Peralta (3-1, 2.77 ERA): The Brewers need to avoid the sweep, and sending Peralta to the bump gives them a good chance to do so. The right-hander is coming off a seven-inning one-hit game against the Cards and he’s given up just 19 hits across his 39 innings while striking out 61 batters. His pitch count can get up quickly, but Peralta is one of the best arms in the league.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Braves: Ronald Acuna OF (Questionable), Christian Pache OF (Out), Alex Jackson C (Out), Travis d’Arnaud C (Out).
Brewers: Brent Suter RP (Out), Christian Yelich OF (Out), Eric Yardley RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Brewers.
Moneyline pick
Atlanta smells blood and will look to finish off the Brewers Sunday after taking the first two games of the series. The story so far has been the Brewers’ inability to hit the Atlanta starting pitching.
The Brewers’ anemic offense has managed just two runs and six hits against the Atlanta starters this series (12 innings) and now they have to face the best pitcher on the staff in Huascar Ynoa.
It’s hard to find any holes in Ynoa’s game as the young righty has been dominant this season. Some young arms struggle with control early in their career, but not this Atlanta pitcher. Ynoa posts a 44:9 K/BB ratio over his 40-plus innings of work as opponents are getting on base at a measley .239 clip. The Brewers have scored two or fewer runs in six of their last nine games and Sunday’s matchup against Ynoa looks daunting.
It’s going to be a tough road for a Brewers team that is 3-10 SU over its last 13 games, but if there is a glimmer of hope, it lies in starter Freddy Peralta.
The right-hander has been mowing batters down this season as his 13.38 K/9 rate is the seventh-best in all of baseball. When opponents do put the ball into play, they aren’t able to do much with it as batters are slashing just .142/.258/.291. However, Peralta threw seven shutout innings (one hit) his last time out and the Brewers still took the L.
We think this pitching matchup is fairly even but with Milwaukee unable to generate any kind of offense, we have to ride with the better-priced visitors — even with the improbability of taking all three games.
PREDICTION: Atlanta (-102)
Over/Under pick
Yesterday’s game settled down after four runs in the first two frames to finish 5-1 and hit the Under 7.5. It should be no surprise that we’re heading back to the well again for Sunday’s matinee in what should be a struggle for both teams to generate runs.
The Braves offense has shown signs of life of late but has still struggled on the whole this year. Now they have to string some hits together against a pitcher who is holding opponents to a .142 batting average and they will likely also be without outfielder Ronald Acuna, who hasn’t suited up in this series due to an ankle injury.
It’s tough to back an Over when the Milwaukee batters have plated just four runs over their last three games and are hitting .172 over that stretch. The top of yesterday’s lineup — Kolton Wong, Omar Narvaez, Avail Garcia, Daniel Vogelbach and Travis Shaw — went a combined 1 for 15. This is one of the least intimidating lineups in baseball right now.
We love the pitching matchup and haven’t seen a big game out of either offense in over a week. We have no problem hitting the Under on the low total of 7 (+100) and doubt either team is going to manage much offense against Sunday’s elite starters.
PREDICTION: Under 7 (+100)
Braves vs Brewers betting card
- Atlanta (-102)
- Under 7 (+100)
Picks made on 5/16/2021 at 8:22 a.m. ET
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