It's a new week of dingers, and if you're one of those people who think Sunday is the start of the week, you're a sicko. With the NFL taking a full ride, this is the best time of the year to get the best value and prices on MLB Player props, and especially home runs.
The Polar Bear gets to tee off on a Triple-A arm, and Jackson Merrill's hot bat gets my favorite matchup in the thin air of Coors Field.
These are my favorite home run props for Monday, September 14.
MLB home run props for today
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Pete Alonso
Jackson Merrill
Home run prediction: Pete Alonso (23.3%)
Mets starter Jonah Tong might have strikeout potential, but he gets hit hard, with 22 dingers allowed in 107 Triple-A innings. He's allowed eight runs over his two games since being recalled and is a good candidate today to hunt for homers with some big names on the other side.
I haven't hit Pete Alonso much of late, as the price has been shy of three dollars, which is always a tough one to bite on, but he's sitting at 23.3% today and is in my buy zone.
All I'm getting at that price is a guy with 14 homers in the second half (T-7) and the second-best xwOBA in baseball over that stretch. It's righty-on-righty, but Tong has worse splits against right-handed bats. I'm playing this to 25% or 4x.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNY, MASN
Home run prediction: Jackson Merrill (22.2%)
It's Tomoyuki Sugano day, and that means I'm backing homers in Colorado, despite having to pay a premium. His HR/9 over the last two seasons is by far the worst of any starter on today's slate. Only two other starters have a worse HR/9 with at least 130 innings pitched this year.
I'm putting Jackson Merrill and his red-hot form at a similar probability to Alonso to go deep. He's one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the last week, slugging 1.040 with three homers. He's a lefty Sugano doesn't want to see, as left-handed bats have taken him deep once every 16.9 plate appearances compared to 27.3 for right-handed hitters.
It's the best HR pitcher on the board against the best bat over the last week at Coors Field.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rockies.TV, Padres.TV
- HR picks: 38-133, -7.46 units
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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