It's a new week of dingers, and if you're one of those people who think Sunday is the start of the week, you're a sicko. With the NFL taking a full ride, this is the best time of the year to get the best value and prices on MLB Player props, and especially home runs.
In addition to Pete Alonso and Jackson Merrill, I'm targeting Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Will Smith in a favorable matchup against struggling southpaw Nick Lodolo.
These are my favorite home run props for Monday, Sept. 14.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
MLB home run props for today
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Player to hit a HR | Chance |
|---|---|
 Pete Alonso |
23% |
 Jackson Merrill |
22% |
 Will Smith |
18% |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | 100.2x |
Home run prediction: Pete Alonso
Mets starter Jonah Tong might have strikeout potential, but he gets hit hard, with 22 dingers allowed in 107 Triple-A innings. He's allowed eight runs over his two games since being recalled and is a good candidate today to hunt for homers with some big names on the other side.
I haven't hit Pete Alonso much of late, as the price has been shy of three dollars, which is always a tough one to bite on, but he's sitting at 23.3% today and is in my buy zone.
All I'm getting at that price is a guy with 14 homers in the second half (T-7) and the second-best xwOBA in baseball over that stretch. It's righty-on-righty, but Tong has worse splits against right-handed bats. I'm playing this to 25% or 4x.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNY, MASN
Home run prediction: Jackson Merrill
It's Tomoyuki Sugano day, and that means I'm backing homers in Colorado, despite having to pay a premium. His HR/9 over the last two seasons is by far the worst of any starter on today's slate. Only two other starters have a worse HR/9 with at least 130 innings pitched this year.
I'm putting Jackson Merrill and his red-hot form at a similar probability to Alonso to go deep. He's one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the last week, slugging 1.040 with three homers. He's a lefty Sugano doesn't want to see, as left-handed bats have taken him deep once every 16.9 plate appearances compared to 27.3 for right-handed hitters.
It's the best HR pitcher on the board against the best bat over the last week at Coors Field.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rockies.TV, Padres.TV
Home run prediction: Will Smith
Let's finish off the home-run card with one of the best +EV dingers from the projections: Will Smith at 17.7%, with a fair probability of 20.4%.
It's a date at Great American Ball Park, which is never a bad thing. GABP is the No. 3 park for home runs today, per BallPark Pal.
Smith already has lefty Cincinnati Reds left-hander Nick Lodolo notched on his belt, as he's taken him deep once in five career plate appearances. The lefty starter has also been giving up long balls at a good rate since August, with eight homers allowed over 27 innings. Of all the starters today, he has the highest HR/FB rate (25%) in the second half, and his 2.69 HR/9 over that same stretch is the 16th-worst.
He's also been dealing with a finger issue that has resulted in a different grip on his curveball, and the adjustments have not worked out in his favor.
For more, check out Quinn Allen's Dodgers vs. Reds predictions.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet LA, Reds.TV
- HR picks: 38-133, -7.46 units
Best home run combo for September 14
| Pete Alonso |
Trade Now 100.2x |
| Jackson Merrill |
|
| Will Smith |
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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