Texas' 2026 elections could reshape the long-stalled push for legal sports betting and casino expansion.
- Vikki Goodwin supports putting casino and sports betting expansion to voters, while Dan Patrick has helped block previous proposals.
- Greg Abbott has become more cautious about gambling, while Hinojosa opposed the 2023 sports betting amendment.
- Republicans are favored to retain both legislative chambers, leaving bipartisan support and Republican votes crucial to legalization.
The lieutenant governor race could have a more direct impact on whether sports betting and casino proposals advance.
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott faces Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, while Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick faces Democratic state Rep. Vikki Goodwin on the Nov. 3 ballot. Goodwin explicitly supports letting Texans vote on gambling expansion, offering a departure from the Senate leadership that has repeatedly blocked it.
Texas remains the second-most populous state without legal sports betting, behind California, and the largest without full-scale Las Vegas-style commercial casinos. The elections will determine who holds two influential offices when lawmakers return for their next regular biennial session in January 2027.
But the races do not present a simple divide between Democrats who support gambling expansion and Republicans who oppose it. Abbott has expressed openness before becoming more cautious, while Hinojosa voted against the sports betting constitutional amendment that passed the House in 2023.
Abbott's openness gives way to caution
Abbott has previously expressed openness to sports betting, but his more recent comments offer no firm commitment to legalization.
In interviews with local media in past years, Abbott indicated he did not have a personal problem with online sports betting. But in more recent discussions, he has expressed concern about brick-and-mortar casino gaming.
That caution matters for both sportsbook companies seeking access to Texas bettors and Las Vegas Sands’ multimillion-dollar effort to develop a destination casino resort in the Dallas area. An Abbott victory would leave those interests working with a governor who has not delivered the political coalition needed to pass it.
His support would nevertheless be only part of the process. The governor can advocate for legislation and sign or veto implementing bills but cannot independently place the required constitutional amendment before voters.
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Hinojosa’s record complicates a partisan split
Hinojosa’s campaign has not laid out a specific sportsbook licensing system or casino development proposal.
While serving in the House, Hinojosa voted against the proposed sports betting constitutional amendment that passed with widespread bipartisan support in 2023 before it stalled in the Senate.
That vote does not establish opposition to every possible sports betting framework or resolve her position on casinos. It does, however, mean supporters cannot assume a Democratic victory in the governor’s race would automatically improve legalization prospects.
A Hinojosa administration could bring different negotiating priorities to Austin. But until she offers a specific gambling commitment, her election would leave unanswered questions about which proposal she would support and whether she would make it a legislative priority.
Goodwin offers a public vote; Patrick remains an obstacle
The lieutenant governor’s race provides a clearer distinction.
Goodwin, the Democrat, has supported putting casinos and online sports betting before voters. In local media interviews, she has framed the question around personal freedom and Texans’ ability to decide whether gambling should be available at home.
She also expressed interest in a broader casino discussion rather than deciding particular locations and operators at the outset. That leaves room for expansion but could require additional negotiations with interests beyond Las Vegas Sands pursuing a destination-resort model.
Patrick has taken a different approach. He has opposed gambling expansion and required support from a majority of Senate Republicans before considering it, a condition advocates have been unable to meet. His opposition helped block the House’s 2023 sports betting proposal, and another push gained little momentum in 2025.
His focus has since extended to prediction markets. In March, Patrick directed senators to study whether those platforms exploit federal law to circumvent Texas gambling prohibitions, and in September the Senate held a hearing on banning or regulating prediction markets.
Texas’ lieutenant governor holds unusually broad legislative power. The officeholder is the constitutional president of the Senate, appoints committee members, and refers legislation to committees, giving the office substantial influence over whether gambling proposals advance.
That makes the lieutenant governor’s willingness to facilitate debate especially consequential. The governor’s negotiating influence matters, but a Senate that will not advance a proposal prevents voters from deciding it at all.
Prediction markets favor both Republican incumbents
Texas midterm election odds favor Abbott and Patrick, though the governor’s race carries a smaller Republican advantage.
As of Oct. 29, Kalshi displayed a 63% probability of an Abbott victory, compared with 37% for Hinojosa. Polymarket displayed approximately 64% for Abbott and 35% for Hinojosa. These figures represent market-implied winning probabilities rather than projected vote shares.
Patrick’s displayed probability was 75% on Kalshi and 77% on Polymarket. The latter's lieutenant governor market had roughly $22,600 in trading volume, compared with about $1.35 million in its governor market.
The U.S. Senate race presents a different picture in prediction markets.
As of Oct. 29, Kalshi gave Democrat James Talarico a 69% chance of defeating Republican Ken Paxton, while Polymarket priced his chances at 70%. Both platforms nevertheless favored Republican Greg Abbott for governor and Dan Patrick for lieutenant governor, pointing toward the possibility of a divided statewide result.
Such an outcome could reflect enough Texans splitting their tickets between the parties or participating selectively in particular races for Talarico to outperform Hinojosa and Goodwin. A Democratic Senate victory would, notably, not necessarily signal a broader change in the state leadership responsible for gambling legalization.
Texans could reject Paxton while retaining many of the incumbent Republican officials who have shaped the sportsbook and casino debate.
Republicans are favored to retain both chambers of the Texas Legislature. As of Oct. 29, Kalshi displayed a 78% probability of Republican control of the state House and a 94% probability of Republican control of the state Senate.
That outlook limits what a Democratic upset could accomplish on its own. Goodwin could change the Senate’s approach to considering casinos and sports betting, while Hinojosa could bring different negotiating priorities to the governor’s office, but neither could bypass lawmakers.
A gambling constitutional amendment requires two-thirds approval in each chamber before reaching voters, making substantial Republican support essential under the likely legislative makeup. The governor cannot veto the resolution proposing an amendment.
Continued Republican control would preserve Abbott’s and Patrick’s influence, but previous failures show that GOP majorities alone do not guarantee agreement on gambling expansion.
These prices point toward at least some party control continuity in the offices that will shape the next gambling debate. For legalization supporters, the more consequential upset could be Goodwin's: Her willingness to entertain a public vote would likely change the Senate’s leadership approach, even while leaving a difficult legislative coalition to assemble.
Midterm Election Battleground States Odds
Senate control races and Governors’ Mansion races across America will come down to key battleground states. With statewide races heating up everywhere, many key states have plenty of interesting races.
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