The Chicago Bears have moved closer to the top of Super Bowl odds after agreeing to acquire defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons in a blockbuster trade with the Tennessee Titans.
- DraftKings' sportsbook director expects Simmons to eventually be worth a half-point against the spread.
- The Bears are in most sportsbooks’ top five for Super Bowl odds.
- FanDuel has place Chicago third in odds.
It was announced Thursday that the Bears sent two first-round picks and a fourth-rounder to the Titans for Simmons and a fifth-round selection. The move added a game-changing piece to an underperforming defensive line and had a substantial impact on Super Bowl odds around the league.
| Bears' SB Odds | Pre-Trade | Post-Trade |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +1,400 | +1,200 |
| FanDuel | +1,400 | +1,000 |
| BetMGM | +1,400 | +1,100 |
| Caesars | +1,300 | +1,200 |
FanDuel reported the most significant movement of major sportsbooks. Their oddsmakers shortened the 5-2 Bears from +1,400 to +1,000. That represents an increase of about 2.4 percentage points in implied championship probability and ties them with the defending champion Seattle Seahawks for the third best of any team. They sit immediately ahead of the Los Angeles Rams and the Kansas City Chiefs.
BetMGM, like other bookmakers, also gave the Bears a significant boost. After entering the NFL’s opening night at +2,500 odds, per Sports Odds History, and sitting at +1,400 pre-trade, Chicago is now +1,100 and fourth behind the San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, and Chiefs.
BetMGM hadn’t taken significant interest in the Bears in futures markets before the trade, as 5.2% of tickets and 5.5% of the money wagered in the Super Bowl market, both the sixth most, were backing them. Those splits are expected to increase.
DraftKings’ odds were the least affected by the trade. Chicago moved from +1,400 to +1,200, indicating that they only became 1% more likely to win the championship with Simmons on the roster.
Odds shake-up
Simmons, a first-time All-Pro in 2025 and four-time Pro Bowler, has been among the league's best defensive tackles this year despite playing on a disappointing Titans team.
Chicago, meanwhile, is right around the middle of the league in metrics relevant to the defensive line, such as pressure generated and yards before contact per carry.
Simmons’ presence in the Windy City should elevate the defense and give the Bears an elite talent up front. However, it may take a bit of time before the full impact of the trade is realized.
DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told Covers that he does not anticipate Simmons having an immediate impact on the Bears' point spreads. He believes Simmons could be worth about half-point in Chicago’s favor once he acclimates with the team.
The Bears were in position to reach the NFC Championship Game last year. Caleb Williams threw an interception in overtime against the Rams that led to Harrison Mevis kicking a game-winning 42-yard field goal that sent L.A. to the next round.
With Williams having elevated his game and Simmons in town, the Bears are now +600 (14.3% chance) to win the NFC at BetMGM. That’s the same as the Seahawks and only behind the 49ers (+250).
FanDuel has them at +500, shortened from +700. The operator also shortened Chicago's NFC North odds from +290 to +230.
Simmons could make his Bears debut Monday night against the Seahawks, who also made a major move by acquiring six-time All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson from the Indianapolis Colts earlier this week.
BetMGM has the Seahawks as -3 (-112) favorites and -175 (63.6% chance) on the moneyline. The Bears are +3 (-105) and +140 (41.7% chance).
