Thundershowers suspended Round 2 play at Oakmont Country Club, and Sam Burns is both the betting U.S. Open odds favorite and tournament leader of the 2025 U.S. Open heading into the weekend.
It was an eventful Friday, and Oakmont played tough again with just three players currently under par through 36 holes. I’m expecting more of the same this weekend and have a trio of golf picks ahead of Round 3.
Best U.S. Open Round 3 predictions
Pick: Jon Rahm Over Scottie Scheffler (Tournament matchup)
+185 at DraftKings
While major champions Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler are tied at +4 after 36 holes, I’ve been much more impressed with Rahm’s tee-to-green game, and I think he can flip the switch on the greens this weekend.
Rahm ranks fifth in true strokes gained tee-to-green, third on approaches, and 140th in putting. He’d gained an average of +0.33 true strokes per round on the greens across his prior 10 events, so it’s been a drastic dip, and I expect statistical correction to kick in.
Turning to Scheffler, he’s been solid but unspectacular across the board, and I don’t think he should be trading as a -235 favorite to beat Rahm given how dialed the Spaniard's ball-striking has been.
Pick: Thomas Detry Top 20 finish
+110 at FanDuel
Thomas Detry sits T8 through 36 holes while ranking second in true strokes gained tee-to-green and first on approaches. The ball-striking has paid the bills, with the Belgian ranking 143rd out of the 156 players in true strokes gained putting.
I expect Detry’s putting to improve this weekend to offset his likely dip in tee-to-green play, which positions him for a solid finish when it’s all said and done. He gained true strokes on the greens in each of his prior four events, which includes his T18 in the Canadian Open last week.
Pick: Corey Conners Top 20 finish
+230 at Caesars
After gaining true strokes on approaches in nine of his past 10 events to rank in this field in the metric during the run, Corey Conners has lost an average of -1.00 true strokes per round to rank 124th in the metric through 36 holes.
Amazingly, he’s mitigating the disaster with elite work on the greens and ranks fifth in true strokes gained putting.
Conners returning to hitting it on a rope should surprise anyone, and as long as his putting doesn’t cliff dive, he’ll be positioned to climb the leaderboard the next two days.
Plus, he has three Top 20s across his past four majors, with the outlier a T25 in The Open last summer.
Latest U.S. Open odds
- Sam Burns: +330
- Viktor Hovland: +550
- J.J. Spaun: +700
- Scottie Scheffler: +800
- Ben Griffin: +1100
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Not intended for use in MA.
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