U.S. Open Predictions, Picks and Golf Best Bets for Round 3: Rahm Outlasts Scheffler

Neil Parker breaks down his favorite U.S. Open Round 3 picks, including Jon Rahm to outlast world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and a Canuck to finish inside the Top 20.

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst
Jun 13, 2025 • 21:35 ET • 4 min read
Jon Rahm plays his shot from the first tee during the second round of the U.S. Open.
Photo By - Imagn Images. Jon Rahm plays his shot from the first tee during the second round of the U.S. Open.

Thundershowers suspended Round 2 play at Oakmont Country Club, and Sam Burns is both the betting U.S. Open odds favorite and tournament leader of the 2025 U.S. Open heading into the weekend.

It was an eventful Friday, and Oakmont played tough again with just three players currently under par through 36 holes. I’m expecting more of the same this weekend and have a trio of golf picks ahead of Round 3.

Best U.S. Open Round 3 predictions

Pick: Jon Rahm Over Scottie Scheffler (Tournament matchup)
+185 at DraftKings

While major champions Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler are tied at +4 after 36 holes, I’ve been much more impressed with Rahm’s tee-to-green game, and I think he can flip the switch on the greens this weekend.

Rahm ranks fifth in true strokes gained tee-to-green, third on approaches, and 140th in putting. He’d gained an average of +0.33 true strokes per round on the greens across his prior 10 events, so it’s been a drastic dip, and I expect statistical correction to kick in.

Turning to Scheffler, he’s been solid but unspectacular across the board, and I don’t think he should be trading as a -235 favorite to beat Rahm given how dialed the Spaniard's ball-striking has been.

Pick: Thomas Detry Top 20 finish
+110 at FanDuel

Thomas Detry sits T8 through 36 holes while ranking second in true strokes gained tee-to-green and first on approaches. The ball-striking has paid the bills, with the Belgian ranking 143rd out of the 156 players in true strokes gained putting.

I expect Detry’s putting to improve this weekend to offset his likely dip in tee-to-green play, which positions him for a solid finish when it’s all said and done. He gained true strokes on the greens in each of his prior four events, which includes his T18 in the Canadian Open last week.

Pick: Corey Conners Top 20 finish
+230 at Caesars

After gaining true strokes on approaches in nine of his past 10 events to rank in this field in the metric during the run, Corey Conners has lost an average of -1.00 true strokes per round to rank 124th in the metric through 36 holes.

Amazingly, he’s mitigating the disaster with elite work on the greens and ranks fifth in true strokes gained putting.

Conners returning to hitting it on a rope should surprise anyone, and as long as his putting doesn’t cliff dive, he’ll be positioned to climb the leaderboard the next two days.

Plus, he has three Top 20s across his past four majors, with the outlier a T25 in The Open last summer.

Latest U.S. Open odds

  • Sam Burns: +330
  • Viktor Hovland: +550
  • J.J. Spaun: +700
  • Scottie Scheffler: +800
  • Ben Griffin: +1100

Odds courtesy of DraftKings.

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Neil Parker - Covers
Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

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