The season's third major is here, as the 2026 U.S. Open kicks off on Thursday, June 18, at Shinnecock Hills.
One of the most pored-over markets out there is for "who will make the cut?" While the likes of Scottie Scheffler are being given very slim chances of missing, it gets a little dicier down the list.
When considering your U.S. Open picks, ask yourself why Brooks Koepka, who won at Shinnecock in 2018, isn't getting bullish U.S. Open cutline odds to reach the weekend in 2026.
Let's look at some U.S. Open odds for who will make or miss the 36-hole cut in Southampton, N.Y., on Friday.
2026 U.S. Open odds to make the cut
| Golfer | % Chance | Yes/No |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 90% | -900 / +809 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 79% | -400 / +355 |
| Rory McIlroy | 79% | -376 / +355 |
| Xander Schauffele | 79% | -376 / +335 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 78% | -355 / +335 |
| Jon Rahm | 77% | -335 / +317 |
| Cameron Young | 74% | -300 / +285 |
| Ludvig Aberg | 74% | -285 / +270 |
| Si Woo Kim | 72% | -285 / +270 |
| Russell Henley | 73% | -270 / +257 |
| Sam Burns | 72% | -257 / +245 |
| J.J. Spaun | 69% | -223 / +213 |
| Collin Morikawa | 68% | -223 / +213 |
| Viktor Hovland | 68% | -223 / +213 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 67% | -223 / +203 |
| Patrick Reed | 66% | -194 / +186 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 66% | -194 / +178 |
| Justin Thomas | 65% | -194 / +186 |
| Chris Gotterup | 65% | -186 / +178 |
| Wyndham Clark | 64% | -178 / +170 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 63% | -178 / +170 |
| Brooks Koepka | 63% | -170 / +163 |
Odds from Kalshi as of 6-17-2026
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Key odds to make the cut
Scottie Scheffler (-900)
It would take balls of pure brass to go against Scottie Scheffler making the cut at Shinnecock. He hasn't missed a cut at a major championship since the 2022 PGA Championship, and he's finished T14 or better in 13 of 16 majors since.
J.J. Spaun (-223)
J.J. Spaun won the U.S. Open in 2025, but will he even make the cut this time around? He hasn't reached the weekend in a major this year, and he doesn't have a great track record in these tournaments outside of his victory.
If there's one plus-money pick to make on a golfer to miss the cut, I'd take Spaun because of his recent and historic form at majors outside of his big win last year.
- U.S. Open pick: J.J. Spaun to miss the cut (+213)
Brooks Koepka (-170)
Brooks Koepka's journey to LIV Golf and back to the PGA Tour has been a wild one, and while he's certainly not expected to miss out on the weekend, Kalshi is giving him just a 63% shot at surviving the first two rounds. His run of majors hasn't been impressive of late. Since finishing T2 at the 2023 Masters and subsequently winning the 2023 PGA Championship, he's finished no better than T12, missed three cuts, and finished outside the Top 40 four times.
However! Koepka won the U.S. Open in 2018, the last time it was hosted at Shinnecock Hills, so there is some baked-in familiarity that could be enough to push him through, even if a win seems far-fetched considering his recent form.
Koepka is nursing a hand injury, which may complicate matters, but he says he'll play through it.
Bryson DeChambeau (-170)
Like Koepka, DeChambeau is getting better than coin-flip odds to make the cut, but he's not considered a sure thing, either.
He's won two U.S. Open Championships, but missed the cut last year and has missed cuts in four of his last seven majors. Now, he finished T10 or better in the other three, but didn't reach the weekend in the Masters or PGA earlier this year.
Rory McIlroy (-376)
Rory McIlroy has made the cut at seven consecutive U.S. Open tournaments. The last time he missed the weekend was at Shinnecock Hills.
Still, while he hasn't won a U.S. Open since 2011, he finished T5 or better in three straight years from 2022-24, which wrapped up a six-year streak of T10 or better.
Tommy Fleetwood (-400)
When Koepka won at Shinnecock Hills in 2018, he finished one stroke ahead of the runner-up, Tommy Fleetwood.
Fleetwood's been in fine form, winning the 2025 Tour Championship over Patrick Cantlay and Russell Henley by three strokes, but it hasn't carried over to the majors. He finished T33 at the Masters and missed the cut at the PGA this year, and since finishing fourth in 2017 and second in 2018, he has missed three cuts and finished T50 or worse on two other occasions at the U.S. Open.
US Open cut rules
The U.S. Open cut rule advances the Top 60 players in the U.S. Open field after Round 2 (plus ties) to the final two rounds, trimming the 156-player starting field by more than half.
Past US Open cut lines
Here's a look at recent U.S. Open cut line numbers. Note that the tournament is played on different courses every year.
| Year | Cut line |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 147 (+7) |
| 2024 | 145 (+5) |
| 2023 | 142 (+2) |
| 2022 | 144 (+4) |
| 2021 | 146 (+4) |
| 2020 | 146 (+6) |
| 2019 | 144 (+2) |
| 2018 | 148 (+8) |
| 2017 | 145 (+1) |
| 2016 | 146 (+6) |
| 2015 | 145 (+5) |
| 2014 | 145 (+5) |
| 2013 | 148 (+8) |
| 2012 | 148 (+8) |
| 2011 | 146 (+4) |
