Round 2 at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club is in the books, and American Wyndham Clark is the betting favorite in the 2026 U.S. Open odds with a commanding four-stroke lead heading into the weekend.
Clark headlines my trio of Round 3 U.S. Open picks because he’s in complete control of his tee-to-green game, and his putter is dialed going into the weekend.
Best U.S. Open Round 3 predictions
| Golfer | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
| Wyndham Clark | To win: Yes | 35¢ +181 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | Top European: Yes | 56¢ -137 |
| Collin Morikawa | Top 10: No | 48¢ +101 |
Wyndham Clark to win: Yes (+181/35¢)
We’re still landing a fair number for Wyndham Clark to win, and he’s gained true strokes across the board in consecutive rounds while hitting 21 of 28 fairways and 28 of 36 greens.
Fairways and greens win low-scoring tournaments with difficult conditions, and especially when your putter is dialed.
Clark ranks seventh in true strokes gained putting (+2.33) through two rounds, and this isn’t unsustainable work on the greens, either. The 2023 U.S. Open winner entered the event ranked fifth in the field in the metric (+1.47) across his past three events, after all.
Matt Fitzpatrick Top European: Yes (-137/56¢)
The biggest threat to Matt Fitzpatrick in this market right now is Rory McIlroy, and the back-to-back Masters champion ranks 112th in true strokes gained tee-to-green through two rounds.
So, with Fitzpatrick three strokes clear and ranking 38th in the metric, I’m confident the Englishman can continue his absolute heater going this weekend at Shinnecock.
Remember, Fitzpatrick entered the event with three wins and two solo-seconds while ranking second in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green, seventh on approach and second in around-the-green play across his past nine events.
Collin Morikawa Top 10: No (+101/48¢)
The two-time major champion flipped the switch in Round 2 to fire a tidy 65 with seven circles on the card thanks to gaining +4.03 true strokes gained tee-to-green and +3.22 putting. Collin Morikawa is T6 entering the weekend, and we’re landing plus-money odds for him to fall outside the Top 10.
Sign me up.
He finished Round 1 ranked 97th in tee-to-green play (-0.64), so even if he just meets in the middle of his first two rounds through the weekend it will be difficult to keep pace because the leaderboard is stacked. There are going to be a handful of players who also spike and go low to leapfrog Morikawa, and don’t forget, he carded a T62-T55-T29 run leading in.
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Live U.S. Open odds at Kalshi
U.S. Open favorites heading into Round 3
- Wyndham Clark (+181/35¢)
- Xander Schauffele (+684/12¢)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+755/11¢)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1119/7.7¢)
- Collin Morikawa (+1738/5.1¢)
Not intended for use in MA.
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