The 2024 U.S. Open begins Thursday, and Pinehurst No. 2 places a premium on pars and many in the field will have more squares than circles on their scorecards.
With scoring likely to be higher than the typical PGA Tour event, we’re scanning U.S. Open odds board for first-round leader and other opening-round markets for the 2024 edition.
U.S. Open first-round leader odds
Pinehurst No. 2 is expected to play hard, firm, and fast, with high temperatures and limited precipitation in the forecast. Considering only three players broke par during the 2014 U.S. Open at this track, don’t be surprised to see the first-round leader close to par.
| Golfer |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +1,100 | +1,200 |
| Xander Schauffele | +2,200 | +2,200 |
| Rory McIlroy | +2,200 | +2,200 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2,800 | +2,800 |
| Viktor Hovland | +2,800 | +3,000 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +3,000 | +3,000 |
| Brooks Koepka | +3,500 | +3,000 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +3,500 | +3,500 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +4,000 | +4,500 |
Odds as of 6/12.
The usual suspects are at the top of the first-round leader odds, with World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler the favorite and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, and Collin Morikawa following in a second tier.
Finally, the reason you’re seeing longer odds for players to be the first-round leader than the tournament outright winner is that it's rare for there to be a wire-to-wire winner and it often takes all 72 holes for the best players in any given tournament to rise to the top of the leaderboard.
Scottie Scheffler first-round odds analysis
It’s hard to find an event that doesn’t suit Scottie Scheffler’s current game, but this U.S. Open at Pinehurst might just be the perfect fit. He paces the PGA Tour in scoring average and bogey avoidance, and he’s first in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green.
I’m expecting him to shoot par or better in the opening round, so I see the -110 bet365 odds that he’ll finish Top 20 in Round 1 are a nice option for Thursday. After all, he's trading as short as +280 to win outright, which has an implied probability of 26.3%. The -110 odds he’s inside the Top 20 after the opening round carry an implied probability of 52.4% — less than double.
Pick: Scottie Scheffler Top 20 After Round 1 (-110 at bet365)
Xander Schauffele first-round odds analysis
Fresh off his first major victory at the PGA Championship and a T8 last week at the Memorial, Xander Schauffele is tied for second on the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average. His game is tight from tee to green and he ranks fourth in true strokes gained putting in this field across his past 32 measured rounds.
Add him ranking second in bogey avoidance and he's posted 4-under and 9-under scores in his past two opening rounds. Another strong opening round is in the cards.
Pick: Xander Schauffele Top 20 After Round 1 (+160 at bet365)
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Rory McIlroy first-round odds analysis
In my opinion, the range of outcomes for Rory McIlroy is wider than the other favorites to win this week. His game is trending in the right direction and he’s gained true strokes across the board in each of his past four events, which includes his win at the Wells Fargo. He also has five consecutive Top 10s at the U.S. Open.
I just worry about his potential to post big scores in addition to his in-round inconsistency at major championships. He had nine bogeys and a double in the PGA Championship and 12 bogeys and a double in the Masters. It just doesn’t give me the confidence in single-round markets to back him because of his short odds. I also don’t like his available head-to-head matchup with Bryson DeChambeau, where McIlroy is a -140 favorite at both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Pick: Fade.
Collin Morikawa first-round odds analysis
Collin Morikawa is tied for second with Schauffele in Round 1 scoring this season and no player is carrying more momentum into this major championship than Morikawa — well, except for Scheffler, but he’s playing a different game.
A pair of Top-5 finishes in the first two majors of the year and a strong track record in the U.S. Open with three consecutive Top 15s — including Top 5s in 2021 and 2022 — have caught the attention of bettors. His odds have been in a free fall as a result and unless you can take advantage of an available odds boost, I'd look for other players to back at Pinehurst.
Pick: Fade.
Billy Horschel first-round odds analysis
Included in my U.S. Open sleeper picks, Billy Horschel is rolling along an excellent stretch with three consecutive Top-25 finishes, including a T8 at the PGA Championship and a T15 at the Memorial last week. He’s second in this field in true strokes gained putting during the three-tournament stretch and has also gained true strokes from tee to green.
With pars being so important this week, I also value him ranking 11th in bogey avoidance and 13th in scrambling; he even finished T23 in the 2014 U.S. Open at Pinehurst. He’s also gone under par in each of his past three opening rounds.
Pick: Billy Horschel Top 20 After Round 1 (+450 at FanDuel)
