Moving to Vegas to become a full time pro handicapper

First off, I AM NOT attacking him for going against the Cavs. I've said continuously, he had the right side, wrong result.

Second, with regard to the Cavs winning the title, let's just say the waters have been muddied now, and it's not because of this win but because of how other teams who were tanking essentially shored up all the Cavs weaknesses.

When I created that thread, the team as constructed, I believed absolutely could not win a title.

They had such a massive overhaul in personnel, that I assumed, like others there wasn't much more they could do.

Then what did the Knicks do? Gave away 2 of their 3 best players...for nothing (Lou Admenson, Lance Thomas and a second rounder are nothing in comparison) just to clear salary.

Shumpert is an outstanding perimeter defender and his value cannot be overstated on defense.

JR Smith is a guy that is going to give you 15-20 pts on certain certain nights, a massive luxury you did not have. Hits the long ball often and he's under control with Lebron watching him unlike Melo watching him.

Then the Cavs were 'centerless', like they were with the Heat titles, but their big 3/big 4 was so strong back then they could get over it.

So what do the Nuggets do? Trade away their solid young center for 2 first rounders (which are essentially two early second rounders) another MASSIVE haul for a team with a glaring weak spot, for a team that does not care in the least about it's first rounders.

Then the Cavs had more good fortune when Rose went down. Did I think the Bulls would take them out? At the beginning of the year I did. But Rose being gone completely eliminates any chance of the Bulls leaving the East or eliminating the Cavs. That is a TOP EC foe and is below the above two points but still relevant. Injuries happen yes. But injuries to a guy who was expected to put you over the top? Well good fortune has smiled on the rest of the league including Cavs.

And you see how the Cavs have been vastly improved with these roster moves.

THEN, as I told CG, you always have the greatest player in the world for talent and as a figurehead to motivate the rest of the team. THAT was there at the beginning of the year but the team as constructed during thread creation is far different than the one we see now. So many players are freed up by those acquisitions, including Love who is now more comfortable in his role.

And the Cavs were gift-wrapped these players by tanking teams. What a beneficiary they are...

And I will say this now, I am still sticking to my original statement that the Cavs will not win the title and the effective hedging for the $100 30-1 bettors (which is the overwhelming majority of them) is not feasible. They will ride it out, I promise you. And they need to win it all or that baby hits the shredder.

Waters are muddied now after free agency but I stand by what I wrote. LONG way to go. LONG way.

If this is true, then why don't you flat bet on yourself and make money?

Quote Originally Posted by TheGoldenGoose:


I said it before and I'll say it again...

March will prove to be one of your toughest handicapping Months.

This NCAA Tourney will drive you crazy if you allow it to happen.

Once you settle down into April, May, Baseball ML bets where you can really grab some value, Live Dogs, you will be fine.

Value on MLB?  Betting in to dime lines in Vegas?  Not sure how that is possible.

Why only dogs?

If Key Element is making money every year betting in to dime lines, than Key Element should be making more profit every year.