2units is the actual produced profit, not a theoretical number(I don't use theoretic stats) I or anyone else have no way of knowing what the line movement is going to be, take the early line, or wait, that's the decision of the capper, and the gamble he takes to gain advantage/edge...Your calculations are not even close, nor is your insight into my form..un-less you have a total understanding of BR/RC formula, connected to the PAC symbol of handicapping units, I would recommend you review the thread, and educate yourself if interested..by the way, those involved in this thread sit at the same table(sabermetrics BR/RC) and have a complete understanding of concept, and the work attached to it.
your not on the same page, or reading the same chapter, your approach to this thread is transparent, as is your post/commentary, to challenge, rather than contribute, your objective is obvious(attention) If you have 'problems' then simply do not enter,the thread.."MLB system releases" has NO problems, I can assure you... This is a documentation, not a 'picks' gallery for bottom feeders, my plays are "my" plays, that I wager on.. the only impression is on my bank account, not on your need of immature comprehension to handicapping units...best regards, SN
Hello SN and Covers forum members-
I have been lurkng for awhile and I have read the entire thread and SN should be greatly commended for all his hard work, insight, and winning formula. He is a top rate mind and has earned many dollars wagering on sporting events.
My only criticism and hopefully this is taken constructively is that you are costing yourself money by not betting your plays earlier in the day. It is intriguing that SN has said in the above post that neither he nor anyone else has any idea which way the lines will move throughout the day, this is just plain false on both accounts. Many people can predict line moves with 60-70% accuracy and he himself has done it quite consistently throughout the last month.
Over the last 90 plays that SN has released he has gone 55-35 against the closing line. Meaning the line moved in his favor over 60% of the time, that number is around 70% on moneylines. The market is obviously most efficient at closing and least efficient earlier in the day which is why most books have limits early in the day or on overnight lines, soft lines exist and books want to limit their exposure if they make an error.
The most accurate measure of a handicapper in my opinion is their record against the closing line, if they beat it consistently, you will win money tailing their picks. Getting the most value is of utmost importance to those of us that do this for a living. Betting all your plays 20 minutes before they start is costing SN money, you can probably backtrack your results and do a more scientific study but if you are up 292 units on the year, I am sure you are beating the closely line with regularity.
Anyways, just my input and thanks again to SN who has created an awesome winning formula with his sabermetric priniciples and I hope we can continue to use this thread to help all of us gain understanding and grow and prosper.
.....
red Sox and Milwaukee scoring late to win. CWS and LAD in the 9th and 10th respectively. It was a truly exciting day of baseball wagering.Keep up the great work!
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