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MLB system releases...

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Posted: #1601
MLB system releases Friday 07/31/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
Rockies+120 RL
Brewers+162 RL
Phillies-115 RL
Tigers+119 RL
Rays-105 RL
 
Pirates+110 ML
Marlins+124 ML
 
sevenPACformulated
projected ratio: 5/7  71.4%
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1602
you dont like BAL in 5 innings SN?? i got BOS batting well against Guthrie, but they are slumping as of late so i figured at best they will do what i predicted and smolts hasnt shown anything ot prove he can out pitch anyone
 
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Posted: #1603
great job sn!  formula is working very well.
 
acortazz-  i like your thinking...Smoltz has not proven anything and Boston bats are struggling vs average pitching
 
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Posted: #1604
great job sn!  formula is working very well.
 
acortazz-  i like your thinking...Smoltz has not proven anything and Boston bats are struggling vs average pitching
 
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Posted: #1605
great job sn!  formula is working very well.
 
acortazz-  i like your thinking...Smoltz has not proven anything and Boston bats are struggling vs average pitching
 
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Posted: #1606
Quote Originally Posted by acortazz:

you dont like BAL in 5 innings SN?? i got BOS batting well against Guthrie, but they are slumping as of late so i figured at best they will do what i predicted and smolts hasnt shown anything ot prove he can out pitch anyone

I posted earlier, it was a strong lean, and a good play on your part, why would you say I didn't like the play? must be a communication gap...good value on this one

 
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Posted: #1607
o i thought since u didnt include it in your post u didnt like it my mistake
 
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Posted: #1608
Any extra value now on NYY since Clayton Richard just got traded?
 
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Posted: #1609
 GL Kemosabe
 
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Posted: #1610
Quote Originally Posted by swamppdonkey77:

Any extra value now on NYY since Clayton Richard just got traded?

 GOOD QUESTION; the Yankees will lose value in price, but gain the winning edge. take note; chw is without a closer tonight,

 
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Posted: #1611
texas thx
 
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Posted: #1612
ApacheM
 
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Posted: #1613
BOL, Maltese Falkon...
 
 
(my "see" key isn't working)
 
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Posted: #1614
Sportsnetwork.  Got a question what is your YTD on this system.  just a curious.

Thanks
 
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Posted: #1615
Exuss me all, but I have a question for EVERYONE , is it possible that during the calculation, that a bias number could exist? and it seems pretty obvious that teams are consistently using at least 1 PH during there game, and teams are in the average using at least 2 RP prior to the Closure coming in (if needed).  My question if you calculate a bias for a specific series (taking your projected scores, adding them up and taking the same actual scores of the game, adding then up, and calculate your correction, applying them to the next day games, would this practice adjust your value? And if playing in the American League, you use 10 batters, National 9 batters, and in Pitching using your starter, 2 RP and your Closure, in your calculation, would this work?
 
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Posted: #1616
The reason is I seem to be having a 0.5822892 variance in scores over a period of 4 games, using this variance and applying it to the games (Yankee's/WhiteSox Game and the Detroit/Cleveland game) I figuire the Yankee final score will be 5-3 +/- 2 and the Detroit to be 9 - 6 +/- 2).   Don't know but it will be interesting to see
 
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Posted: #1617
IMHO...since you asked for everyone....you are over thinking things..The math gives you a lean...the rest is up to you in your situational plays. 
 
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Posted: #1618
On fire now SN!
Long may it continue.
 
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Posted: #1619
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]
MLB system releases Friday 07/31/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
Rockies+120 RL...win
Brewers+162 RL...loss
Phillies-115 RL...win
Tigers+119 RL...loss
Rays-105 RL...win
 
Pirates+110 ML...win
Marlins+124 ML...win
 
sevenPACformulated
projected ratio: 5/7  71.4%
 
SN
 
 
 
FINAL RESULTS:
5-2
units: +20.52
 
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1620
 
 
                                          Saturday, August 1st, 2009
 
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Posted: #1621
Quote Originally Posted by dsiu79:

Sportsnetwork.  Got a question what is your YTD on this system.  just a curious.

Thanks

I would prefer(and appreciate) someone other than myself to sooth your curiousity..the thread speaks entirely for itself, and your answer is located with-in, in all due respect, I just don't have the time to bac-trac my DataExcel system where the info is stored, to give you an exact read that coincides with "MLB system releases"   located in Systems&Strategies, and the Baseball Forum(which was dis-continued)  However; I am able to give accurate approximates off the top of my head, that are documented in this thread alone; as follows...............             

MLBsystemReleases YTD/BR/RCformula

112-60  69.13%

7O-30  70%

94-41  69.62%

16-4  80%

Units: +338.73 (exact)

I am sure there are additional wins/losses that coincide with the unit count that is exact, as indicated....best regards, SN

 
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Posted: #1622
toft33 lookin' good
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1623
snyder9 solid
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1624
 
MLB system releases Saturday 08/01/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
BlueJays+140 RL
Rays-118 RL
Yankees+128 RL
 
Astros+205 ML
Dodgers+132 ML
Cubs-137 ML
Twins-132 ML
Mariners-121 ML
 
RedSox-145  5innings (Beckett)
Diamondbacks-132  5innings (Scherzer)
PHI/SF+110  UNDER 4 / 5innings
 
 
elevenPACformulated
projected ratio: 8/11  72.7%
 
SN
 
 
 
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Posted: #1625
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

 
MLB system releases Saturday 08/01/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
BlueJays+140 RL
Rays-118 RL
Yankees+128 RL
 
Astros+205 ML
Dodgers+132 ML
Cubs-137 ML
Twins-132 ML
Mariners-121 ML
 
RedSox-145  5innings (Beckett)
Diamondbacks-132  5innings (Scherzer)
PHI/SF+110  UNDER 4 / 5innings
 
 
elevenPACformulated
projected ratio: 8/11  72.7%
 
SN
 


Do you consider TeamTotals?

I think BsR formulas often have good leans on TT.
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