Well this isn't Sabermetric related but I have been looking for some future's wagers already. Here are some wagers I am considering. Any and all feedback is welcome and all odds are from The Greek Sportsbook.
Toronto Under 71 1/2 wins -125
Seattle Over 83 1/2 wins -110
San Francisco Over 82 1/2 wins +105
N.Y. Yankees Under 94 1/2 wins +130
Chicago White Sox Over 82 1/2 wins -135
Colorado to win NL West +245
Philadelphia to win NL East -135(stepping out on a limb there huh?)
Boston Red Sox to win AL East +145
Seattle Mariners to win AL West +165
It is good to know that someone feels that this system isn't just a fluke as others believe. I must admit that the strategy sounds legit but the mixed reviews left me skeptical so i decided to try it out during spring training. I have a vague understanding of how it all works out. So to Dark Horse and anyone else out there who understands the strategy:I dont have the time now but i will post my capping breakdown in using the system to the best of my knowledge. Im new to sports betting and i would appreciate it if you guys could give me a full raw critique.
Darkhorse,
I agree that SN did expose us to something very intriguing and something that could be very profitable. But the way he handled himself on the thread made it very difficult for people to believe him. It's not about people being to lazy or uneducated to do the work. It's about giving people who aren't used to using sabremetrics as applied to wagering the tools to use it without insulting them for asking certain questions. Certain questions like units wagered, and how that applies to strongest leans. Even people early on in the thread would get different numbers for runs created and base runs even though SN supposedly "gave all the information that we need in the thread". You don't just throw a random kid an algebra book and tell him to read it and expect him to know it in a week. You give that kid step by step instructions as plainly as possible so that kid can understand it. It's the same concept as this thread. If your readers can't grasp it's concepts then it's not the audiences fault. It's the speakers. I'm not trying to start an argument and I'm not trying to belittle SN for what he did. I'm just not sure he handles interactions with others very well. Maybe his problem has more to do with social skills than anything else. Anyways, best of luck to everyone this upcoming season.
Darkhorse,
I agree that SN did expose us to something very intriguing and something that could be very profitable. But the way he handled himself on the thread made it very difficult for people to believe him. It's not about people being to lazy or uneducated to do the work. It's about giving people who aren't used to using sabremetrics as applied to wagering the tools to use it without insulting them for asking certain questions. Certain questions like units wagered, and how that applies to strongest leans. Even people early on in the thread would get different numbers for runs created and base runs even though SN supposedly "gave all the information that we need in the thread". You don't just throw a random kid an algebra book and tell him to read it and expect him to know it in a week. You give that kid step by step instructions as plainly as possible so that kid can understand it. It's the same concept as this thread. If your readers can't grasp it's concepts then it's not the audiences fault. It's the speakers. I'm not trying to start an argument and I'm not trying to belittle SN for what he did. I'm just not sure he handles interactions with others very well. Maybe his problem has more to do with social skills than anything else. Anyways, best of luck to everyone this upcoming season.
SN basically knows the whole landscape of betting on the net and at the book. The Sabermetrics approach of last season was something that takes time to cobble together, even on a daily basis, even running it through excel-programmed macros. If that's in fact how it was executed. I don't know about the money management aspect to it. He explained the MM in terms of allocation to me because I sent him a polite PM requesting it. Maybe he got short with people. I never actually saw or read that. As he said himself, he was keeping the method fluid and refining it throughout the season. I really do not think it was the kind of analytics that could be easily understood without a PhD in statistics. Pretty sophisticated with real granularity to it. And it was on a roll for a while. He posted his cards for free. So I would not expect him to give away his secret for free. It becomes less valuable.
DJ,
People did question his lines/prices towards the end of the thread. People questioned his units wagered a lot when he managed to have days that were 3-5 but yet up 8 units. I'm not saying he didn't do a productive thing by starting this thread. And I understand if he wanted to educate people to do this on their own and not just take his picks. But part of handicapping is units wagered, and it's a big part. And he refused to say how many units he wagered until like halfway through the thread and after he had insulted many people for even asking. It just could have went a lot smoother had he catered to his audience more.
I'm kinda over debating SN's worth to the thread though. I would like to see it move forward with somebodys thoughts toward this upcoming season. Especially as it pertains to futures wagers since it's Spring Training right now. I would love to hear other's thoughts or if anyone knows of any great wagers/prices on specific books. Best of luck to all.
Somebody did call him on it. In fact a lot of people called him on it. I was just one of them. I actually have a difficult time believing a lot of people are still taking him seriously.
I'm telling you guys straight up and directly. He was the sports betting version of Enron. Start with a reasonably good idea on how to make a small amount of money. Claim it makes an absurdly large amount of money. Come up with a convoluted shell game to explain why losses aren't really losses. They are actually huge profits. Argue that its a waste of time trying to dissect this convoluted coverup. Argue that anybody that doesn't understand the details of the shell game is stupid and that its obvious to everyone else. Watch while the small profits turn into huge losses. Disappear without a trace when the roof inevitably crashes in.
It wasn't only about unit management or incorrect lines. Those were just symptoms of the larger problem. The larger problem was that his accounting was shit. He was more concerned with saying he was making large profits than actually making small ones. I suppose its OK to be a delusional know-it-all but when other people are starting to follow you and taking your bullshit at face value, you are doing a huge disfavor to society.
For those of you that didn't see the end...reread post #506 of this thread.
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100522314&page=21
I caught him in 3 obvious lies in one posting. He never did respond to the heart of the complaint and very quickly left Covers. I'm fairly certain that if I looked closely enough I could find many more "accounting irregularities".
This was just such a misguided and painful thread. Sabermetrics is a very useful subject in betting. There are a ton of great Sabermetrics sites. Baseballprospectus.com, baseball-reference.com, tangotiger.com, etc. etc. Advancednflstats.com is a good one for football. If you aren't familiar with the basic concepts (BABIP, etc). Get familiar quickly. It will definitely help you.
None of these sites claim that they can earn you absurd amounts or that they win 70% of their bets. They do provide useful information and they are very aware of their own shortcomings.
If somebody wants to replicate their formulas targeted for the gambling audience, then I will applaud. But if you get a small amount of success and start to feel the temptation to start claiming a much higher rate than you actually earned....stop and don't ever come back.
Darkhorse,
I agree that SN did expose us to something very intriguing and something that could be very profitable. But the way he handled himself on the thread made it very difficult for people to believe him. It's not about people being to lazy or uneducated to do the work. It's about giving people who aren't used to using sabremetrics as applied to wagering the tools to use it without insulting them for asking certain questions. Certain questions like units wagered, and how that applies to strongest leans. Even people early on in the thread would get different numbers for runs created and base runs even though SN supposedly "gave all the information that we need in the thread". You don't just throw a random kid an algebra book and tell him to read it and expect him to know it in a week. You give that kid step by step instructions as plainly as possible so that kid can understand it. It's the same concept as this thread. If your readers can't grasp it's concepts then it's not the audiences fault. It's the speakers. I'm not trying to start an argument and I'm not trying to belittle SN for what he did. I'm just not sure he handles interactions with others very well. Maybe his problem has more to do with social skills than anything else. Anyways, best of luck to everyone this upcoming season.
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