Posted:
#1076
jwager / Rollin' always SN
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MLB system releases...
Posted:
#1078
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:
BR/RC is a tool that unlocks the door to "situational" handicapping, and iniciates a cappers 'true' form which produces "spot" plays of value.
BLACKEN1772 / good insight! I thrive on commentary of value, insight, and assessment pertaining to BR/RC and all sabermetric formulas designed to handicapp MLB the true success of this thread is judged by the success it brings the participants, and yours truly..We all sit at the same table of success, this is about money, and the brotherhood of handicapping sports..based on discussion, and sharing ones experience, insight, and concept..later fella's SN
Well put. - BLKN 0
GL Kemosabe
Posted:
#1082
Quote Originally Posted by MeMyselfandEye:
Pythagorean Expectation Formula - I am attempting the correct application here, seems logical. I have sorted the data into a per inning format, then converted it to 5 innings using the starting pitchers for today's game.
(A^1.83)/((A^1.83)+(B^1.83)) A is runs scored, B is runs allowed.
TORONTO
Have scored 208 Runs on the road this year. Road record=17-23 or 40 games. 5.20 runs per game, .578 runs per inning per game, or 2.89 runs for 5 innings.
Romero on the orad has pitched 33.2 innings, given up 13 runs, or allowed .392 runs per inning, 1.96 runs for 5 innings.
So by using the the formula, runs scored is 2.89, runs allowed is 1.96 = 67.05%
NY YANKEES
Have scored 236 runs at home in 41 games, 5.756 runs per game, 0.639 runs per inning, 3.195 for 1st 5 innings.
Pettite - 55.1 innings at home, given up 33 runs, or .598 runs per inning, 2.994 runs for 5 innings.
So by using the formula runs scored is 3.195, runs allowed is 2.994 = 47.04%
Pythagorean Expectation Formula - I am attempting the correct application here, seems logical. I have sorted the data into a per inning format, then converted it to 5 innings using the starting pitchers for today's game.
(A^1.83)/((A^1.83)+(B^1.83)) A is runs scored, B is runs allowed.
TORONTO
Have scored 208 Runs on the road this year. Road record=17-23 or 40 games. 5.20 runs per game, .578 runs per inning per game, or 2.89 runs for 5 innings.
Romero on the orad has pitched 33.2 innings, given up 13 runs, or allowed .392 runs per inning, 1.96 runs for 5 innings.
So by using the the formula, runs scored is 2.89, runs allowed is 1.96 = 67.05%
NY YANKEES
Have scored 236 runs at home in 41 games, 5.756 runs per game, 0.639 runs per inning, 3.195 for 1st 5 innings.
Pettite - 55.1 innings at home, given up 33 runs, or .598 runs per inning, 2.994 runs for 5 innings.
So by using the formula runs scored is 3.195, runs allowed is 2.994 = 47.04%
An example of advantage connected to yesterdays action
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Posted:
#1083
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:
MLB system releases Monday 07/06/09 Base_Runs formula....
Tigers+150 RL
Rockies+118 RL
BlueJays+142 ML
Orioles+11O ML
Diamondbacks-155 ML
Reds+146 5innings
Giants-152 5innings
ATL/CHC UNDER 8.5
eight PAC formulated
projected ratio: 5/8 62.5%+
value rating: +464 apx
SN
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Posted:
#1084
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]
MLB system releases Monday 07/06/09 Base_Runs formula....
Tigers+150 RL...loss
Rockies+118 RL...loss
BlueJays+142 ML...win
Orioles+11O ML...loss
Diamondbacks-155 ML...win
Reds+146 5innings.....loss
Giants-152 5innings...win
ATL/CHC UNDER 8.5...win
eight PAC formulated
projected ratio: 5/8 62.5%+
value rating: +464 apx
SN
FINAL RESULTS:
4-4
units:+4.40
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Posted:
#1087
| [Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]
MLB system releases Monday 07/06/09 Base_Runs formula....
Tigers+150 RL...loss
Rockies+118 RL...loss
BlueJays+142 ML...win
Orioles+11O ML...loss
Diamondbacks-155 ML...win
Reds+146 5innings.....loss
Giants-152 5innings...win
ATL/CHC UNDER 8.5...win
eight PAC formulated
projected ratio: 5/8 62.5%+
value rating: +464 apx
SN
FINAL RESULTS:
4-4
units:+4.40 |
SN-As far a unit structure is concerned, how did you arrive at +4.40?
Thanks,
Mac
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and is on fire with his under plays
thanks for all your hard work
i havent heard from you lately your input is always helpful
Posted:
#1089
So if there aren't enough plate appearances of one lineup against the opposing team's starting pitcher we use the Pythagorean Expectation Formula correct? Which will give us a statistical lean -- From there we use situational handicapping to strengthen/scratch the selection?
Runs Created and Runs Allowed is used to do the same thing if there are enough plate appearances, and are also good indications of overs/unders am I right?
Runs Created and Runs Allowed is used to do the same thing if there are enough plate appearances, and are also good indications of overs/unders am I right?
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Posted:
#1091
Runs Created for Toronto tonight vs. Shields I have as being 0.491 total.
-Under is 6-1 in Shields' last 7 starts overall.
-Under is 5-1 in Shields' last 6 starts as a home favorite.
-Under is 4-1-1 in Shields' last 6 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
-Rays are 5-1 in Shields' last 6 home starts vs. Blue Jays.
-Rays are 15-3 in Shields' last 18 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200.
Possible Bets:
- TOR @ TB Under 9.0
- Tampa Bay RL +115
- Toronto Under 4.5 Runs
-Under is 6-1 in Shields' last 7 starts overall.
-Under is 5-1 in Shields' last 6 starts as a home favorite.
-Under is 4-1-1 in Shields' last 6 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
-Rays are 5-1 in Shields' last 6 home starts vs. Blue Jays.
-Rays are 15-3 in Shields' last 18 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200.
Possible Bets:
- TOR @ TB Under 9.0
- Tampa Bay RL +115
- Toronto Under 4.5 Runs
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Posted:
#1096
Quote Originally Posted by WiLdCaRd88:
So if there aren't enough plate appearances of one lineup against the opposing team's starting pitcher we use the Pythagorean Expectation Formula correct? Which will give us a statistical lean -- From there we use situational handicapping to strengthen/scratch the selection?
Runs Created and Runs Allowed is used to do the same thing if there are enough plate appearances, and are also good indications of overs/unders am I right?
So if there aren't enough plate appearances of one lineup against the opposing team's starting pitcher we use the Pythagorean Expectation Formula correct? Which will give us a statistical lean -- From there we use situational handicapping to strengthen/scratch the selection?
Runs Created and Runs Allowed is used to do the same thing if there are enough plate appearances, and are also good indications of overs/unders am I right?
Your description on conept is correct, the answer to your questions their-fore, is yes, and yes..basically, you have zeroed in on the target, now apply your form.....best regards SN
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Posted:
#1098
Quote Originally Posted by WiLdCaRd88:
SN why am I getting such low numbers for RC in the OAK/BOS game?
I have Oakland -- 0.579
and Boston -- 0.219
I take it I am not supposed to take the RC and divide it by 27?
Instead just take the original RC number produced?
SN why am I getting such low numbers for RC in the OAK/BOS game?
I have Oakland -- 0.579
and Boston -- 0.219
I take it I am not supposed to take the RC and divide it by 27?
Instead just take the original RC number produced?
WIld Card, you can search wikipedia for the runs created formula, as well as the formula for RC/27 or 25.5 innings. And if you really want to make things simple......those stats are available on espn.com for all Major League teams.
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Posted:
#1099
Quote Originally Posted by WiLdCaRd88:
SN why am I getting such low numbers for RC in the OAK/BOS game?
I have Oakland -- 0.579
and Boston -- 0.219
I take it I am not supposed to take the RC and divide it by 27?
Instead just take the original RC number produced?
SN why am I getting such low numbers for RC in the OAK/BOS game?
I have Oakland -- 0.579
and Boston -- 0.219
I take it I am not supposed to take the RC and divide it by 27?
Instead just take the original RC number produced?
Here is the formula I use for RC/27 if you want to try it out yourself.
(RC x 27) divided by
(AB - H - Sacrifices + Caught Stealing + GIDP)
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