I actually can't find a single game where a pitcher has faced all of the opposing team's lineup. How are you guys using the Runs Created formula, and how are you all coming up with close numbers to one another? I'm L-O-S-T now.
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I actually can't find a single game where a pitcher has faced all of the opposing team's lineup. How are you guys using the Runs Created formula, and how are you all coming up with close numbers to one another? I'm L-O-S-T now.
Could someone check these for tomorrow's Toronto @ New York game -- I have Runs Scored for Toronto to be: 0.967 This is without stats from Chavez and Delucci. Can anyone offer help on this? Thank you.
WildCard88. You do not need a complete lineup to do the calculations..I feel at least 7 of the 9 will give you the correct lean on the game....
I will try and help out today and do some calculations....
MME
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Quote Originally Posted by WiLdCaRd88:
Could someone check these for tomorrow's Toronto @ New York game -- I have Runs Scored for Toronto to be: 0.967 This is without stats from Chavez and Delucci. Can anyone offer help on this? Thank you.
WildCard88. You do not need a complete lineup to do the calculations..I feel at least 7 of the 9 will give you the correct lean on the game....
I will try and help out today and do some calculations....
Pythagorean Expectation Formula - I am attempting the correct application here, seems logical. I have sorted the data into a per inning format, then converted it to 5 innings using the starting pitchers for today's game.
(A^1.83)/((A^1.83)+(B^1.83)) A is runs scored, B is runs allowed.
TORONTO Have scored 208 Runs on the road this year. Road record=17-23 or 40 games. 5.20 runs per game, .578 runs per inning per game, or 2.89 runs for 5 innings.
Romero on the orad has pitched 33.2 innings, given up 13 runs, or allowed .392 runs per inning, 1.96 runs for 5 innings.
So by using the the formula, runs scored is 2.89, runs allowed is 1.96 = 67.05%
NY YANKEES Have scored 236 runs at home in 41 games, 5.756 runs per game, 0.639 runs per inning, 3.195 for 1st 5 innings.
Pettite - 55.1 innings at home, given up 33 runs, or .598 runs per inning, 2.994 runs for 5 innings.
So by using the formula runs scored is 3.195, runs allowed is 2.994 = 47.04%
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Pythagorean Expectation Formula - I am attempting the correct application here, seems logical. I have sorted the data into a per inning format, then converted it to 5 innings using the starting pitchers for today's game.
(A^1.83)/((A^1.83)+(B^1.83)) A is runs scored, B is runs allowed.
TORONTO Have scored 208 Runs on the road this year. Road record=17-23 or 40 games. 5.20 runs per game, .578 runs per inning per game, or 2.89 runs for 5 innings.
Romero on the orad has pitched 33.2 innings, given up 13 runs, or allowed .392 runs per inning, 1.96 runs for 5 innings.
So by using the the formula, runs scored is 2.89, runs allowed is 1.96 = 67.05%
NY YANKEES Have scored 236 runs at home in 41 games, 5.756 runs per game, 0.639 runs per inning, 3.195 for 1st 5 innings.
Pettite - 55.1 innings at home, given up 33 runs, or .598 runs per inning, 2.994 runs for 5 innings.
So by using the formula runs scored is 3.195, runs allowed is 2.994 = 47.04%
Pythagorean Expectation Formula - I am attempting the correct application here, seems logical. I have sorted the data into a per inning format, then converted it to 5 innings using the starting pitchers for today's game.
(A^1.83)/((A^1.83)+(B^1.83)) A is runs scored, B is runs allowed.
TORONTO Have scored 208 Runs on the road this year. Road record=17-23 or 40 games. 5.20 runs per game, .578 runs per inning per game, or 2.89 runs for 5 innings.
Romero on the orad has pitched 33.2 innings, given up 13 runs, or allowed .392 runs per inning, 1.96 runs for 5 innings.
So by using the the formula, runs scored is 2.89, runs allowed is 1.96 = 67.05%
NY YANKEES Have scored 236 runs at home in 41 games, 5.756 runs per game, 0.639 runs per inning, 3.195 for 1st 5 innings.
Pettite - 55.1 innings at home, given up 33 runs, or .598 runs per inning, 2.994 runs for 5 innings.
So by using the formula runs scored is 3.195, runs allowed is 2.994 = 47.04%
this is a valuable post MME, not only do you demonstrate procedure of application, but iniciate statistical assessment of advantage(TOR) good work....If I may add one final stat; TOR/SP Romero(who's a lefty) has allowed "one" HR in his last 38 innings pitched! ......A coincide gives added strength to an already strong play of value. anxious on the final results of this 6unit attachment.. ML&5innings both look attractive this afternoon in the Bronx...best regards SN
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Quote Originally Posted by MeMyselfandEye:
Pythagorean Expectation Formula - I am attempting the correct application here, seems logical. I have sorted the data into a per inning format, then converted it to 5 innings using the starting pitchers for today's game.
(A^1.83)/((A^1.83)+(B^1.83)) A is runs scored, B is runs allowed.
TORONTO Have scored 208 Runs on the road this year. Road record=17-23 or 40 games. 5.20 runs per game, .578 runs per inning per game, or 2.89 runs for 5 innings.
Romero on the orad has pitched 33.2 innings, given up 13 runs, or allowed .392 runs per inning, 1.96 runs for 5 innings.
So by using the the formula, runs scored is 2.89, runs allowed is 1.96 = 67.05%
NY YANKEES Have scored 236 runs at home in 41 games, 5.756 runs per game, 0.639 runs per inning, 3.195 for 1st 5 innings.
Pettite - 55.1 innings at home, given up 33 runs, or .598 runs per inning, 2.994 runs for 5 innings.
So by using the formula runs scored is 3.195, runs allowed is 2.994 = 47.04%
this is a valuable post MME, not only do you demonstrate procedure of application, but iniciate statistical assessment of advantage(TOR) good work....If I may add one final stat; TOR/SP Romero(who's a lefty) has allowed "one" HR in his last 38 innings pitched! ......A coincide gives added strength to an already strong play of value. anxious on the final results of this 6unit attachment.. ML&5innings both look attractive this afternoon in the Bronx...best regards SN
Pythagorean Expectation Formula - I am attempting the correct application here, seems logical. I have sorted the data into a per inning format, then converted it to 5 innings using the starting pitchers for today's game.
(A^1.83)/((A^1.83)+(B^1.83)) A is runs scored, B is runs allowed.
TORONTO Have scored 208 Runs on the road this year. Road record=17-23 or 40 games. 5.20 runs per game, .578 runs per inning per game, or 2.89 runs for 5 innings.
Romero on the orad has pitched 33.2 innings, given up 13 runs, or allowed .392 runs per inning, 1.96 runs for 5 innings.
So by using the the formula, runs scored is 2.89, runs allowed is 1.96 = 67.05%
NY YANKEES Have scored 236 runs at home in 41 games, 5.756 runs per game, 0.639 runs per inning, 3.195 for 1st 5 innings.
Pettite - 55.1 innings at home, given up 33 runs, or .598 runs per inning, 2.994 runs for 5 innings.
So by using the formula runs scored is 3.195, runs allowed is 2.994 = 47.04%
With due respect to SN, as this is his thread and originator of this experiment, I will offer my opinion. MME, I would suggest you use the output generated by the BR/RC model as "A" & "B" in the Pythagorean Expectation Formula. Then determine your money line by taking W% and converting to ML. Most importantly as stated earlier in this multiple times by SN, This gives you a basis for your handicapping. If you Don't apply situational handicapping on top of this you would be foolish. I have found that this method is quite time consuming although very profitable. The harder one works the greater the results. This method is not for the quick and easy type. I hope you find this helpful - SN
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Quote Originally Posted by MeMyselfandEye:
Pythagorean Expectation Formula - I am attempting the correct application here, seems logical. I have sorted the data into a per inning format, then converted it to 5 innings using the starting pitchers for today's game.
(A^1.83)/((A^1.83)+(B^1.83)) A is runs scored, B is runs allowed.
TORONTO Have scored 208 Runs on the road this year. Road record=17-23 or 40 games. 5.20 runs per game, .578 runs per inning per game, or 2.89 runs for 5 innings.
Romero on the orad has pitched 33.2 innings, given up 13 runs, or allowed .392 runs per inning, 1.96 runs for 5 innings.
So by using the the formula, runs scored is 2.89, runs allowed is 1.96 = 67.05%
NY YANKEES Have scored 236 runs at home in 41 games, 5.756 runs per game, 0.639 runs per inning, 3.195 for 1st 5 innings.
Pettite - 55.1 innings at home, given up 33 runs, or .598 runs per inning, 2.994 runs for 5 innings.
So by using the formula runs scored is 3.195, runs allowed is 2.994 = 47.04%
With due respect to SN, as this is his thread and originator of this experiment, I will offer my opinion. MME, I would suggest you use the output generated by the BR/RC model as "A" & "B" in the Pythagorean Expectation Formula. Then determine your money line by taking W% and converting to ML. Most importantly as stated earlier in this multiple times by SN, This gives you a basis for your handicapping. If you Don't apply situational handicapping on top of this you would be foolish. I have found that this method is quite time consuming although very profitable. The harder one works the greater the results. This method is not for the quick and easy type. I hope you find this helpful - SN
BLACKEN..thank you for the input..Very valuable points made..it is merely a tool - just trying to show my work for those interested and for commentary.
" Using the output generated by the BR/RC model as A & B the the Pythagorean Expectation Formula" - See..a light bulb just went off in my head.
I am assuming that in the instances of low data in batter to pitcher matchups where we are trying to recreate a 9-inning game - use the pitchers numbers (not unlike above) to get the BR/RC values...then plug them in....
MME
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BLACKEN..thank you for the input..Very valuable points made..it is merely a tool - just trying to show my work for those interested and for commentary.
" Using the output generated by the BR/RC model as A & B the the Pythagorean Expectation Formula" - See..a light bulb just went off in my head.
I am assuming that in the instances of low data in batter to pitcher matchups where we are trying to recreate a 9-inning game - use the pitchers numbers (not unlike above) to get the BR/RC values...then plug them in....
if u had a total of 6 runs or so why wouldnt the Under for Tor/NYY be a good bet?
and i have noticed too RL 8 units ML 4 units and O/U 2 Units not sure about the 5 inn tho im assuming same as ML??
The only applied units that are perpetually stable are the 'set' 2units on O/U's..In the majority of instances, 8units are applied to the RL(this is the option of the capper, and his iniciated 'form') dogs draw 4 to 6 as does 5innings / remember, your not only cappin' the games at hand, your also cappin' units, based on equated 'value' through sabermetric attachments to absorb dis-advantage, and lower risk on RL&DOG play. totals are strictly insurance manuevers to produce internal balance on loss..and of course a cappers bankroll identifies his attachments(one can do only as much as his BR permits) this is only a basic outline, there's more, you can absorb this as concept and understanding to the PAC form of MLB handicapping. playing one game, for one unit a day will get you absolutely nowhere, as will playing favorites over -160..amateur's capp' games / professionals capp' units&value....MM overpowers Winning%..this is not opinion, these are the facts of successful PAC play...best regards SN
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Quote Originally Posted by acortazz:
if u had a total of 6 runs or so why wouldnt the Under for Tor/NYY be a good bet?
and i have noticed too RL 8 units ML 4 units and O/U 2 Units not sure about the 5 inn tho im assuming same as ML??
The only applied units that are perpetually stable are the 'set' 2units on O/U's..In the majority of instances, 8units are applied to the RL(this is the option of the capper, and his iniciated 'form') dogs draw 4 to 6 as does 5innings / remember, your not only cappin' the games at hand, your also cappin' units, based on equated 'value' through sabermetric attachments to absorb dis-advantage, and lower risk on RL&DOG play. totals are strictly insurance manuevers to produce internal balance on loss..and of course a cappers bankroll identifies his attachments(one can do only as much as his BR permits) this is only a basic outline, there's more, you can absorb this as concept and understanding to the PAC form of MLB handicapping. playing one game, for one unit a day will get you absolutely nowhere, as will playing favorites over -160..amateur's capp' games / professionals capp' units&value....MM overpowers Winning%..this is not opinion, these are the facts of successful PAC play...best regards SN
BR/RC is a tool that unlocks the door to "situational" handicapping, and iniciates a cappers 'true' form which produces "spot" plays of value.
BLACKEN1772 / good insight! I thrive on commentary of value, insight, and assessment pertaining to BR/RC and all sabermetric formulas designed to handicapp MLB the true success of this thread is judged by the success it brings the participants, and yours truly..We all sit at the same table of success, this is about money, and the brotherhood of handicapping sports..based on discussion, and sharing ones experience, insight, and concept..later fella's SN
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BR/RC is a tool that unlocks the door to "situational" handicapping, and iniciates a cappers 'true' form which produces "spot" plays of value.
BLACKEN1772 / good insight! I thrive on commentary of value, insight, and assessment pertaining to BR/RC and all sabermetric formulas designed to handicapp MLB the true success of this thread is judged by the success it brings the participants, and yours truly..We all sit at the same table of success, this is about money, and the brotherhood of handicapping sports..based on discussion, and sharing ones experience, insight, and concept..later fella's SN
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