Posted:
#951
Thursday, July 2nd, 2009
0
MLB system releases...
GL Kemosabe
Posted:
#956
SN - Thank you for your guidance. 
At this time I am relatively early in the BsR learning curve and I am focusing on 5in sides until I am confident with my adjusted components and multipliers. I have worked on the first 5in of the following games. Please tell me what you think.
HOU - 2.46
SD - 3.15
PHI - 4.78
ATL - 1.58
I would also like a recommendation on what to do in situations such as in today's SD lineup where three players have never faced the HOU pitcher.
In the above example they have been simply left out of the model This alters the outcome making it less accurate, agree?
Thank You, BLKN
At this time I am relatively early in the BsR learning curve and I am focusing on 5in sides until I am confident with my adjusted components and multipliers. I have worked on the first 5in of the following games. Please tell me what you think.HOU - 2.46
SD - 3.15
PHI - 4.78
ATL - 1.58
I would also like a recommendation on what to do in situations such as in today's SD lineup where three players have never faced the HOU pitcher.
In the above example they have been simply left out of the model This alters the outcome making it less accurate, agree?
Thank You, BLKN
0
Posted:
#957
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:
MLB system releases 07/02/09 Base_Runs formula...
Padres+115 ML...loss
Phillies+132 ML...loss
SF/StL OVER 9...loss
CHW/KC UNDER 9...win
FINAL RESULTS:
1-3
units:-8.20*
*The regression of 8units(regardless of how far a capper is ahead) has to bring R/R to the forefront, with applied form, and srategies. nothing less than total recovery can be accepted, in baseball, you have 3 days maximum to gain back your advantage of MM to continue your success, and move forward..To those who have studied "progression/regression theorm" and understand it's concept / application to sports wagering in particular I will up-date this procedure on your behalf. To the fella's that are un-familar with R/R..feel free to PM for additional information, and insight, if seriously interested...In conclusion, the SD+115 and PHI+132 were losses of 'value'..To parallel this to the Yankees-330 home loss, with SP CC Sabathia on the mound; is simply, "that's baseball" where 'luck' is never harbored, it's either a win, or loss, and must be accepted as so....SN
four formulated
0
Posted:
#958
Quote Originally Posted by BLACKEN1772:
SN - Thank you for your guidance. At this time I am relatively early in the BsR learning curve and I am focusing on 5in sides until I am confident with my adjusted components and multipliers. I have worked on the first 5in of the following games. Please tell me what you think.
HOU - 2.46
SD - 3.15
PHI - 4.78
ATL - 1.58
I would also like a recommendation on what to do in situations such as in today's SD lineup where three players have never faced the HOU pitcher.
In the above example they have been simply left out of the model This alters the outcome making it less accurate, agree?
Thank You, BLKN
SN - Thank you for your guidance.
At this time I am relatively early in the BsR learning curve and I am focusing on 5in sides until I am confident with my adjusted components and multipliers. I have worked on the first 5in of the following games. Please tell me what you think.HOU - 2.46
SD - 3.15
PHI - 4.78
ATL - 1.58
I would also like a recommendation on what to do in situations such as in today's SD lineup where three players have never faced the HOU pitcher.
In the above example they have been simply left out of the model This alters the outcome making it less accurate, agree?
Thank You, BLKN
yes, it hinders the accuracy, but still gives the lean your looking for. and puts the stats in position to apply 'situational' handicapping, based on the value of the game, and the strength of advantage...best regards, SN
0
Posted:
#963
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:
yes, it hinders the accuracy, but still gives the lean your looking for. and puts the stats in position to apply 'situational' handicapping, based on the value of the game, and the strength of advantage...best regards, SN
SN -I agree with you that the application of results within this experiment (BR/RC) be used only as tool in ones handicapping. It is not "be all, end all" result. I have spent substantial time this past week sorting out your ideas in believe to have a understanding of it. I lastly have incorporated The Pythagorean Expectation formula in the variant of Pythaganpat and am pleased by the results.
Thank you for bringing this experiment to the forefront. As well as taking some of your valuable time to answer my questions. It has had a refreshing effect on me and widened my views about handicapping baseball. All in all I believe your experiment has merrit and I plan on continuing to "fine tune" the formulas to suit my handicapping. I look forward to further dicussion, and correspondance..best regards BLKN
0
Posted:
#965
MLB system releases Friday 07/03/09 Base_Runs formula...
Cubs+132 RL
Marlins+145 RL
Giants+190 RL
Indians+170 RL
RedSox+175 RL
Braves-119 5innings
Cardinals-121 5innings
Diamondbacks+132 5innings
Dodgers-129 ML
TOR/NYY UNDER 9.5
CWS/KC UNDER 8
TB/TEX OVER 10
DET/MIN OVER 9
thirteen PAC formulated
projected: 9/13
SN
0
Posted:
#968
Quote Originally Posted by BLACKEN1772:
SN -I agree with you that the application of results within this experiment (BR/RC) be used only as tool in ones handicapping. It is not "be all, end all" result. I have spent substantial time this past week sorting out your ideas in believe to have a understanding of it. I lastly have incorporated The Pythagorean Expectation formula in the variant of Pythaganpat and am pleased by the results.
Thank you for bringing this experiment to the forefront. As well as taking some of your valuable time to answer my questions. It has had a refreshing effect on me and widened my views about handicapping baseball. All in all I believe your experiment has merrit and I plan on continuing to "fine tune" the formulas to suit my handicapping. I look forward to further dicussion, and correspondance..best regards BLKN
SN -I agree with you that the application of results within this experiment (BR/RC) be used only as tool in ones handicapping. It is not "be all, end all" result. I have spent substantial time this past week sorting out your ideas in believe to have a understanding of it. I lastly have incorporated The Pythagorean Expectation formula in the variant of Pythaganpat and am pleased by the results.
Thank you for bringing this experiment to the forefront. As well as taking some of your valuable time to answer my questions. It has had a refreshing effect on me and widened my views about handicapping baseball. All in all I believe your experiment has merrit and I plan on continuing to "fine tune" the formulas to suit my handicapping. I look forward to further dicussion, and correspondance..best regards BLKN
The "Pythagorean_Expectation Formula" is designed for MLB handicapping, it's application is a work of art within itself SN
0
Posted:
#971
It seems I have stumbled on a very interesting use of Sabermetrics here. I must commend Sports_Network on a very thorough and well thought-out system. I have read this thread at least 6 times over the last week and it seems detailed enough for anyone to follow through.
To further the thought process and advancement of this theory..I will give a detailed explanation of my calculation for today’s TOR and NYY game – 1st 5 innings only. I am posting this after the start of the game because I would like to know if my application of this theory is correct, without the consequences of someone taking this information, right or wrong, and losing.
1st thing – I wait until the actual lineup is posted on MLB.com for the game – 1 hour before game time. That way I do not have to predict the lineup or relief pitchers – everything is known at this point.
0
Posted:
#972
For the NYY against Tallet
Name BaseRuns AB H Outs
Jeter 0.967 11 3 8
Damon 2.755 16 5 11
Teixeria 4.327 5 3 2
Rodriguez 1.163 12 1 11
Cano 1.430 14 4 10
Swisher 2.084 5 2 3
Matzui 5.228 11 6 5
Cervelli 0.290 3 1 2
Gardner 0.629 3 1 2
Total 18.874 81 26 55
55 outs=18.33 Innings
18.874 Base Runs/18.33 Innings = 1.029 Base Runs per inning
1.029 x 5innings = 5.147 NYY 1st 5 innings
For TOR against Burnett I get 1.65 1st 5 Innings
Name BaseRuns AB H Outs
Jeter 0.967 11 3 8
Damon 2.755 16 5 11
Teixeria 4.327 5 3 2
Rodriguez 1.163 12 1 11
Cano 1.430 14 4 10
Swisher 2.084 5 2 3
Matzui 5.228 11 6 5
Cervelli 0.290 3 1 2
Gardner 0.629 3 1 2
Total 18.874 81 26 55
55 outs=18.33 Innings
18.874 Base Runs/18.33 Innings = 1.029 Base Runs per inning
1.029 x 5innings = 5.147 NYY 1st 5 innings
For TOR against Burnett I get 1.65 1st 5 Innings
0
Posted:
#973
Quote Originally Posted by MeMyselfandEye:
For the NYY against Tallet
Name BaseRuns AB H Outs
Jeter 0.967 11 3 8
Damon 2.755 16 5 11
Teixeria 4.327 5 3 2
Rodriguez 1.163 12 1 11
Cano 1.430 14 4 10
Swisher 2.084 5 2 3
Matzui 5.228 11 6 5
Cervelli 0.290 3 1 2
Gardner 0.629 3 1 2
Total 18.874 81 26 55
55 outs=18.33 Innings
18.874 Base Runs/18.33 Innings = 1.029 Base Runs per inning
1.029 x 5innings = 5.147 NYY 1st 5 innings
For TOR against Burnett I get 1.65 1st 5 Innings
For the NYY against Tallet
Name BaseRuns AB H Outs
Jeter 0.967 11 3 8
Damon 2.755 16 5 11
Teixeria 4.327 5 3 2
Rodriguez 1.163 12 1 11
Cano 1.430 14 4 10
Swisher 2.084 5 2 3
Matzui 5.228 11 6 5
Cervelli 0.290 3 1 2
Gardner 0.629 3 1 2
Total 18.874 81 26 55
55 outs=18.33 Innings
18.874 Base Runs/18.33 Innings = 1.029 Base Runs per inning
1.029 x 5innings = 5.147 NYY 1st 5 innings
For TOR against Burnett I get 1.65 1st 5 Innings
excellent contribution, applied perfectly, with a correct assessment...thank you SN
0
Posted:
#974
Just ended the 1st 5 -NYY 3, TOR 1...so in line with what I had. Sports_Network, not sure if using outs is the correct way to determine the base runs per inning as outlined above, but it seems reasonable to expect
I am new to Covers, but not to handicapping. I hope to contribute much more to this thread in the future - for now..just trying to stick with the math only on this thread.
0
Hot Forum Topics
