Posted:
#8376
Oh yeah and LA under will hit since I laid off of it. It'll be 0-0 and STL will win in OT
Serious Streak Survivor Strategies
Posted:
#8378
Just an addendum to that West Coast Ballpark post. I skipped the Angels because that is probably the exception on the Coast. Not near the water, close to Disneyland not that means anything but the weather is usually warm in Orange County and historically the Angels have had good hitting clubs down there and HR's are not hard to come by down in Anaheim.
Posted:
#8379
Man the halftime line for Dallas game is interesting. Dallas -4 and o/u 95.5.
According to my system the under was the play for the game so with the second half tracking under there is no play on the total.
I do like Dallas though at -4, I think that line is soft and I had it at around -5.5. Taking Dallas.
I made 3 personal picks today really that didn't fit the system, Dallas second half, NY and LA. Only pick that really qualified though was this under. Let's see how it pans out
Posted:
#8380
I should mention I guess that Dallas does actually qualify as a pick second half. They were an original line move and so are a play according to value second half. Adding that one as a system pick. Second half hasn't started yet so I can say that. Dallas -4 second half, and under 193.5 for game were the 2 sharp plays tonight.
Posted:
#8382
Quote Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:
I should mention I guess that Dallas does actually qualify as a pick second half. They were an original line move and so are a play according to value second half. Adding that one as a system pick. Second half hasn't started yet so I can say that. Dallas -4 second half, and under 193.5 for game were the 2 sharp plays tonight.
I should mention I guess that Dallas does actually qualify as a pick second half. They were an original line move and so are a play according to value second half. Adding that one as a system pick. Second half hasn't started yet so I can say that. Dallas -4 second half, and under 193.5 for game were the 2 sharp plays tonight.
Correct me if I'm wrong Czech, it seems that your system over unders are hitting at an alarming high rate compared to your sides.
I haven't went and counted I'm just going off of what i remember
Posted:
#8384
Alright Dallas sucks and the system is taking a loss tonight whether i like it or not lol
On the bright side LA looking good, and I'm glad i laid off that under. I agree with that opinion earlier that the line dropped due to everyone and their mom's and brothers and sisters on the under. LA is gonna be in the FINALS
Posted:
#8385
Hey smoothD i like totals better as a matter of fact, but going back through the regular season they both did well. I think that the reason totals may do better though, is because i think the line moves on totals are more honest and mathematical.
Side lines can be affected by everything, from players playing and not playing to public money, sharp money, this factor, that factor. I don't know how to articulate it but i have found the line moves in totals to be a lot more accurate than sides.
That's why i made it such an important rule to only follow line moves that go against the consensus. These are the only ones that have a chance to be honest and due to factors other than public money. My goal is to find what the sharps are taking and i think when you see a line going against who everyone is on, that this is indicative of sharp action.
That didn't really happen tonight though. NY line moved, but then moved back. I had expected that so i took NY anyways, but the system spells out in rule 1 that i only take picks that show clear and progressive line moves, not ones that go down and then back up.
Dallas also went to -3.5, but then down to -3 even though public was divided. This didn't really qualify either, although i think they did second half. I haven't missed a second half bet in a while but this one is losing.
Posted:
#8388
Hey edward don't know if you read my earlier posts a few days ago but this is still a work in progress. I have added some particulars but this is the gist of it, I've noticed a system that produces a high amount of winners in the NBA (regular season, and hopefully in post season also, although it got off to a bad start)-
The key is all 3 rules MUST be followed in order to qualify.
1) There must be a line move that is progressive and sticks, as opposed to bouncing back and forth, in my direction, and not due to an injury or player being out (example, I like Dallas -1.5 and the line moves to Dallas -3.5)
2) The line move/play has to be in opposition to what the public seems to like (ex 62% busters on OKC +3.5)
3) I have to like the pick myself, and not go against my gut.
-- So the rules are there must be a line move that indicates I'm on the sharp side, AND the busters have to be on the other side, AND i have to like it, or at least not dislike it. For me personally sometimes a play will look right but i don't like it, and then it loses. I decided that rule 3 is important for me personally, although maybe not for anyone else.
Looking back at the games tonight, the line moved early on NY, but then back to original line, and public liked Mia, and I wanted to root for NY. So I took NY, although technically the play didn't qualify, based on rule 1. Interestingly the total did drop 1/2 a point and qualified more so than the side did, and that hit, but i never considered it.
The true sharp play was the OKC under, and i said that all day long. The busters were all over the over, and the total dropped from 196 to 194, then to 193.5 later. This was a great line move, it was progressive, it was solid and never went back up, even though the B's were pounding the over. Dallas line went back and forth and did not qualify.
Posted:
#8389
Line moves are great but they can be deceiving at times. I didn't want to say nothing earlier but that NY Knick game was a disaster waiting to happen. I didn't bet it but those guys are in a rough spot. No Amare, Lin and Shumpbert. Team morale has got to be low so I expected Miami to win that game easily. That's why I say you have to look at other factors besides line movements. I think EdwardGlenn posted about any Yahoo can walk into a casino and plunk down money and the line moves. That is so true. Not every guy in Vegas betting a dime on a game is Sharp. I think when you take line considerations into account and look at the trends of those teams then the percentages are in your favor. That's what I do and it serves me well because I'm playing the percentages for the most part. Tonight for example if I would have followed the percentages I would have taken Toronto but because I'm getting a little cocky from winning so much I felt the Angels were getting hot. They're coming off the high of a No-No and they need to make up some ground. Wrong move on my part because Toronto has had a lot of success in Anaheim especially lately and I ignored that vital stat and played the Angels. Oh well I need to get back to being more disciplined.
if LA wins on the puck line
Posted:
#8395
Yeah we all need to be disciplined smooth. That should be my rule #1.
Only thing I can say about that anyone can plunk down 10k point, is its true, although I think when you see sharp moves in opposition to the consensus it's more likely to be sharp. If some drunk rich guy stumbles in and lays wood on the favorite I don't think they move the line necessarily, but if some runner does on the dog they'll move it.
Only thing I can say about that anyone can plunk down 10k point, is its true, although I think when you see sharp moves in opposition to the consensus it's more likely to be sharp. If some drunk rich guy stumbles in and lays wood on the favorite I don't think they move the line necessarily, but if some runner does on the dog they'll move it.
Posted:
#8398
Quote Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:
Yeah we all need to be disciplined smooth. That should be my rule #1.
Only thing I can say about that anyone can plunk down 10k point, is its true, although I think when you see sharp moves in opposition to the consensus it's more likely to be sharp. If some drunk rich guy stumbles in and lays wood on the favorite I don't think they move the line necessarily, but if some runner does on the dog they'll move it.
Yeah we all need to be disciplined smooth. That should be my rule #1.
Only thing I can say about that anyone can plunk down 10k point, is its true, although I think when you see sharp moves in opposition to the consensus it's more likely to be sharp. If some drunk rich guy stumbles in and lays wood on the favorite I don't think they move the line necessarily, but if some runner does on the dog they'll move it.
The line moves to even out the money, it doesn't matter who it is, sharps or public, if the money is there the book tries to even it out.
books do not make money off of us winning or losing, i mean don't get me wrong sometimes they do and sometimes they lose there ass. BUT what they do make money on is THE JUICE. they try and take equal money on each side of the play, therefor we take each others money, BUT not the books. The books cash in on the juice. So if my sister walks into a casino and lays 20 Grand on the Lakers along with the public, the line is gonna move in favor of the lakers to try to get more people on the dog.
Your system might not be working as well BECAUSE this is the playoffs... every one and there cousins granny that loves NBA is betting because its THE PLAYOFFS, AND THE LAST OF THE NBA this season. With that said, you WILL get mixed line reads.
Also, more people,(Public) tend to bet the side, meaning more sharps play the total. that is why i think you are getting accurate line reads on OVER/UNDER. go back and count your side records and do the same for your over under records and post them. i really think your around 70% on your total plays
Posted:
#8400
Hey edward you're throwing down some good info there.
I never really thought about it but you're right, there's probably a much higher concentration of public money vs sharp money in the post season, hence the confused line moves.
Also like your reasoning on totals. The total line moves have always seemed more solid, and honestly the reason I think I did better on sides in reg season was because I tended to only take dog line moves, when public was all over the favorite, and these tended to be sharp. you really didn't see too many busters taking a dog in the regular season, at least until the end of the season, so there weren't many favorite sharp plays to begin with.
Post season has definitely been a lot more swingy.
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