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Plisskin76

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Posts: 3165

Posted: May. 4, 2012 - 8:16 PM ET #8426

BULLS O176.5

I know the world is on the under,but like the over and had it last game also. Sometimes when the line shifts drastically I like goin the other way. I was planning on playing over the whole time anyway. If I'm wrong oh well,can make 2H play if needed.

Plisskin76

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Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 3165

Posted: May. 4, 2012 - 9:05 PM ET #8427

HAWKS +5 2H

HAWKS U86 2H

Plisskin76

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Posts: 3165

Posted: May. 4, 2012 - 9:31 PM ET #8428

BULLS U88 2H

Plisskin76

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Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 3165

Posted: May. 4, 2012 - 9:33 PM ET #8429

These baseball sides are killin me. Thats it,done with sides for now,will do totals only in baseball.

Been doin good in NBA playoffs,may just stick to whats winning.

CZECH_RAZOR

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Posts: 849

Posted: May. 4, 2012 - 9:35 PM ET #8430

Did anyone get on this Bulls under sharp play tonight??

CZECH_RAZOR

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Posts: 849

Posted: May. 4, 2012 - 9:37 PM ET #8431

Pliss the public was on the Bulls over. Under was the sharp play

CZECH_RAZOR

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Posts: 849

Posted: May. 4, 2012 - 9:38 PM ET #8432

Bulls under is gonna be W5 on the sharp plays last 3 or 4 days, 9/6 for the week and at 60% now. Stay tuned for more sharp action

CZECH_RAZOR

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Posts: 849

Posted: May. 4, 2012 - 9:41 PM ET #8433

The reason the bulls total tanked wasn't cuz everyone was on them, public seemed divided with a slight majority on the over. That was a steam move on the under since the sharps were laying some heavy wood on it

bamabilly

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Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 2337

Posted: May. 4, 2012 - 9:43 PM ET #8434

    Hey Czech. I really like your system; especially for NBA betting/ picking. I do, however, have a strong feeling that you are only looking at Covers Consensus to determine what side the Bustiers are riding.The reason that I believe this is because when you say that the Bustiers are on a side or a total, I look and see that you are correct if you look only at Covers. When I look elsewhere, I often see a different story entirely.

A couple of examples would be on Wed. May 2, when you went 2-0. These plays may have qualified according to Covers public, but if you had looked here, you would have seen them as not qualifying due to lack of Bustier support. Only 54% were on the San Antonio over (you won with under) and only 52% were on the Clippers (you won with Memphis). Neither of those percentages strike me as being particularly Bustierish, as they were closer to the median 50/50 range of popularity.

     If it is the case that you only use Covers Consensus, then I I would like to offer you some more toys to play with, so speak.
     1. VegasInsider's matchups page- a good source for line moves and betting trends to see where the %'s are stacked. Go to the Matchups page for whatever sport you want like NBA, MLB, NHL or NFL, etc. al
     2.FBZ- public trends page-select the sport you want from the list and then it displays a pie chart of who the public is betting and also has graphs showing line moves with betting %'s. Unfortunately totals are not listed, so it is for sides only. It is still useful, though.
     3.SBR live odds page - this page shows the lines available across 15 or more sportsbooks. You will see the opening line as well as where it is currently. This is very good for seeing where a line stands now in relation to where it started.

The above links that I have provided will show you what is happening in the real betting world with real bets placed at real sportsbooks. The Covers percentages only show you what is happening in the Covers Contest picks. It is useful, but you must consider that no real money is risked by the players of these Covers contests. So going by percentages can be misleading becauseyou will find a crazy amount of people picking -250 moneyline favorites without risking real dough.

     Great work so far, Czech. I am a fan of your system. I only wanted to show you more options for information so that you can always get a clear and complete picture of what is happening. Covers info alone can sometimes be misleading since they only look at the picks made in the Contests by Covers Members.
I really liked your system play (CHI-PHI under) for tonight and my provided links will show everyone that you were spot-on in your identification of a heavy public play resulting in a reverse line movement reaction from the bookmakers. The under was absolutely the right play in the CHI-PHI game and it appears you are headed for a payout in that one. It is an amazing system for totals, especially, when you follow your rules.

At any rate, Czech-Razor, I applaud your system and find you to be a valuable member of the $25 Dime Club. I again welcome you aboard, as I said a few days ago, and look forward to more of your insights.

bamabilly

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Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 2337

Posted: May. 4, 2012 - 9:56 PM ET #8435

Quote Originally Posted by smoothd20:

I have been in contact with Rizzo about the Booyahz situation. Rizzo told me that contrary to what some people have told Booyahz he will be able to post freely once his "rehab" is over. Good news!

I can confirm this. Rizzo responded to my PM, as well. He said that he regretted that he could not do anything for Booyahz, because rules are rules and must be enforced. I am happy to report that Riz alos said tht Booyahz would be reinstated on June 1, after he serves his time. His Rehab stint ends on May 29! Great news! We will have to throw a party when he is freed!

Yay-Yay!

CZECH_RAZOR

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Posts: 849

Posted: May. 4, 2012 - 10:33 PM ET #8436

Man I run bad. Bos game goes 160 in regulation so I'd say the under was the right play but Boston blows an 11 pt lead and it goes over by 1/2 a pt in OT. lost both bets

CZECH_RAZOR

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Posts: 849

Posted: May. 4, 2012 - 10:38 PM ET #8437

Hey Bama you're right and thanks for the info man. I do only look at Covers consensus but often feel that's not an accurate gauge of what the busters like.

We can figure this out dude lets put our heads together. The line moves that go against the public really do well man but I've notices the also, that sometimes my picks my be a little skewed due to my not really knowing the true public consensus.

This is why it's a lot harder when it's around that 55/45 mark. You're right there's nothing special about those. Looking back to last season the system did best when I took moves that were fading the public when the public was 60%+ on Covers.

Plisskin76

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Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 3165

Posted: May. 4, 2012 - 10:40 PM ET #8438

WOW, what a finish in boston game! I hang on and go 2-1 on all bets.

U174.5 Had 2U on Under phew!

ATL 2H +5

U86 2H

D-backs

Rangers

Hopefully split the two bulls totals bets

Plisskin76

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Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 3165

Posted: May. 4, 2012 - 10:43 PM ET #8439

Stations online left the total at 174.5 on celtics,so i said f it,i'll do 2 bets under.I have a sports pager from them i get to use for free and total never hit 174 on there,so whatever i'll take it!

Nobody else had even 174 that i saw.

CZECH_RAZOR

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Posts: 849

Posted: May. 4, 2012 - 10:44 PM ET #8440

Dude Bama thank you for that info. You may not believe this but I only started betting NBA around 1/4 of the way into the season this year. I had never bet a game at all before going to Vegas during NFL season last year. suffice it to say I'm hooked, but have a lot to learn.

The system is sort of a gift from a friend o mine that gave me a lot of pointers when I started, but I've learned a lot already and modified it on my own. This info you've given me is going to help a lot I think, since the system can only work when we know which side the public is truly on.

Thanks man and keep in touch, even PM me if you'd like to discuss ideas. I think a lot of guys talk crap but I am interested in sports betting as a true means to generate wealth and think it can be done with the right system, and based on what I've seen so far I am onto something here it just needs a little perfecting.

CZECH_RAZOR

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Posts: 849

Posted: May. 4, 2012 - 10:47 PM ET #8441

Hey pliss how you get under 174.5 I had 173.5

Plisskin76

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Posts: 3165

Posted: May. 4, 2012 - 10:49 PM ET #8442

Czech,don't gloat over one pick,I'm still winning for today.

The world was also on bulls,how'd that work out?

Plisskin76

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Posts: 3165

Posted: May. 4, 2012 - 10:50 PM ET #8443

Read above czech,the site didn't adjust the line.

CZECH_RAZOR

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Posts: 849

Posted: May. 4, 2012 - 10:52 PM ET #8444

Well the system play hit Bulls under covered by 24 pts. W5 and 9/6 for the week, 60%.

As for the other picks, man I run bad. Not sure how Chicago managed to lose tonight, after being up 11 in 4th quarter. Boston had that lead also and lets Atl tie things to force OT, double fucking me as the under loses by 1/2 a pt at the end of OT. I was 12 seconds away from hitting that under even in OT

Plisskin76

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Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 3165

Posted: May. 4, 2012 - 10:53 PM ET #8445

stations casino's here in vegas are locals casino's,meaning a lot of square plays,they usually have higher totals and lines than most other vegas books. This is an advantage for me as the lines are slighty biased to the local square bettors,favs and overs.

So,yay for me!

Plisskin76

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Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 3165

Posted: May. 4, 2012 - 10:56 PM ET #8446

Czech, I dont mean to sound like a dick,but I make my own plays and follow them. I appreciate your input and posts and good luck with them.

One play in the grand scheme isn't a big deal.

Plisskin76

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Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 3165

Posted: May. 4, 2012 - 10:58 PM ET #8447

BULLS O176.5

BULLS U88 2H

CZECH_RAZOR

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Posts: 849

Posted: May. 4, 2012 - 11:05 PM ET #8448

Hey BAMA,

Sorry man but I just now finished reading your entire post. Thanks a lot for the kind words man, and for that great info and for the links you provided.

You were absolutely right, I was only using Covers consensus data before. The system is a work in progress and up until now I was just using Covers to see who the "busters" were on. I had thought about that myself, how they weren't betting real money, but honestly I didn't know where to look for better data.

I'm gonna PM you and send a friend request. I'd like to talk some other stuff with you

CZECH_RAZOR

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Posts: 849

Posted: May. 4, 2012 - 11:08 PM ET #8449

Hey Pliss why you tripping man. I'm not gloating, in fact I went 1-3 tonight on bets. System play hit, and my other 3 didn't. Got sucked out on the Boston total cuz I had the under also, that's why I asked you about the line you posted.

CZECH_RAZOR

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Posts: 849

Posted: May. 4, 2012 - 11:13 PM ET #8450

Bamabilly -

I sent a friend request then tried to PM but you only accept messages from friends. I got some good ideas to discuss with you if you're interested. There's a lot of potential here.

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