Fading the Public Plays with reasoning

Didn't give up just yet, in in the middle of moving my apartment!

@Da_BetWhiz

 Any EpL plays today? Love your analysis bro 

Sorry bro, I won't be able to post on Saturday as well I think

Results so far: 54-38-3, +12.74 units

Charlton Vs Stoke City
The Play: Playing AGAINST Stoke City DC (Risking 0.52 units to win 1 unit).

The Public Logic: Stoke City sits comfortably in mid-table (13th), while Charlton is languishing in 18th, flirting with the relegation zone.
The public looks at the table and Stoke’s 3-0 win in the reverse fixture and assumes the Potters are the "safe" bet to at least grab a point

The Real Script: Motivation is the biggest edge at this stage of the season. Stoke is stuck in mid-table purgatory with little to play. Charlton, however, is fighting for survival. The Valley will be tense, but desperate teams at home often find a gear that comfortable mid-table teams cannot match on a cold Wednesday night. I’m fading the unmotivated visitors and backing the desperate hosts to steal all three points.

Sunderland Vs Liverpool
The Play: Playing AGAINST Sunderland +1 AH (Risking 0.7 units to win 1 unit).

The Public Logic: The "Stadium of Light Fortress" narrative is in full swing. Sunderland is the only Premier League team still unbeaten at home, and they managed a 1-1 draw at Anfield earlier this season. The public loves the underdog story here, expecting Liverpool’s porous defense to struggle again + all the injuries and Slobo being out.

The Real Script: All streaks must end, and usually, they end violently. Liverpool arrives angry after a heartbreaking loss to Man City that left Arne Slot’s job hanging by a thread. While Sunderland has been resilient, their underlying numbers suggest they are massively overperforming at home. I expect Liverpool’s superior quality, driven by pure desperation to save their season, to finally shatter Sunderland’s unbeaten home run. I’m betting on a statement win (2-0 or 3-1) that clears the handicap.

NEC Nijmegen Vs FC Utrecht
The Play: Playing AGAINST Both Teams To Score (BTTS) (Risking 0.75 units to win 1 unit).

The Public Logic: It’s the Eredivisie, so the public blindly bets "Goals." NEC is flying high in 3rd place with the league's second-best attack, while Utrecht is seen as a team that can always scramble a goal. The consensus prediction is a 2-1 or 3-1 shootout.

The Real Script: Utrecht’s attack has been sterile recently, struggling to create high-quality chances against organized defenses. NEC, on the other hand, controls games with possession and has been efficient at home. The public expects a chaotic goal-fest, but the reality is likely a controlled, professional performance from NEC where they suffocate Utrecht.

I'ma keeping it short today:

Brentford vs Arsenal
The Play: Playing Brentford +0.75 AH (Risking 1 unit to win 0.98 units with Unibet)

Fading 98% public money

Corinthians vs. Bragantino
The Play: Corinthians -0.25 AH (Risking 1 unit to win 0.72 units with Betsson)

The public narrative entering this match is simple and compelling: Red Bull Bragantino is "hot," and Corinthians is "cold." Bragantino enters the match as the only side to have won their first two games of the new Brazilian Serie A season, maintaining a 100% record. They are unbeaten in nine games across all competitions in 2026. In contrast, Corinthians lost their opening fixture 2-1 at home to Bahia and have not played a league match since, sitting near the bottom of the early table.

A single loss to Bahia does not erase the structural advantages of the Corinthians squad, nor does two wins make Bragantino invincible. The probability of a top-tier team like Corinthians losing two consecutive home games to open a season is statistically low in the Brasileirão, a league defined by powerful home-field advantages.

Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona
The Play: Atletico Madrid +0.5 (Risking 1 unit to win 0.69 units with Smarkets)

Barcelona enters this match on a six-match winning streak across all competitions. They are the runaway leaders in La Liga, sitting 13 points clear of Atletico Madrid. Atletico, conversely, has been inconsistent, winning only four of their last ten matches in 2026  and recently suffering a 1-0 home defeat to Real Betis. 

Based on these facts, the public sees Barcelona as a safe bet. However, league form often fails to translate to cup intensity. For Atletico Madrid, the Copa del Rey represents a "significant opportunity for silverware" in a season where the league title is slipping away. This shifts the motivational calculus. For Barcelona, the league is the priority; for Atletico, the Cup is the only priority. Barcelona also has the luxury to draw this game and win it at home.

@Da_BetWhiz

 QUICK QUESTION

WHAT DOSE AH MEAN ??

AND GREAT WORK, TODAY THE MADRID PICK WHEN 98% ARE ON BARCELONA, 

IS AMAZING, THX

It's short for Asian Handicap, which is good sometimes when you want to buy a small insurance.

Corinthians -0.25 AH means that I'm putting half the bet on Corinthians to win, but half on Corinthians Draw No Bet, meaning I get half my stake back if they draw.