By the way, the football / soccer season is coming to end.
Do we have anyone following this thread interested in MLB and might be interested in MLB plays durin off-season?
I have stats from the start of the season, I will go thru them and backtrack and see if there is anything there worth while, if there is any interest.
Plays for 6th May
Play these:
Fade these at Smarkets/Betfair/or similar P2P Betting Sitet
Friday card — 6 picks
Hull vs Millwall — Pick: Millwall DC + Under 2.5 Goals (@2.25, 7/10). Playoff semi-finals usually turn into tension-fests, and this one looks built for a cagey, low-scoring match. Millwall are on a nine-game unbeaten away run, and Hull are missing key players up front, which only strengthens the under angle.
Dortmund vs Frankfurt — Pick: Dortmund ML + BTTS + Over 2.5 (@2.71, 6/10). Dortmund already have their Champions League place secured and have lost three of their last four, while Frankfurt still need points for Europe and should arrive with the sharper edge. It sets up for an open game where both teams can score, but Dortmund still have enough quality to get the job done at home.
Cádiz vs Deportivo La Coruña — Pick: Deportivo La Coruña ML (@1.95, 7/10). Cádiz have not kept a clean sheet in eight games and have just one draw with five losses in their last six, so they look like a side in freefall. Deportivo are the best away team in the division and are chasing automatic promotion, which makes them the far more trustworthy side here despite the earlier 2-2 meeting.
Drogheda United vs Derry City — Pick: Derry City DNB (@1.70, 6/10). Derry look organized, tactically sharp, and in good rhythm, while Drogheda have been leaking goals and looking shaky defensively. Taking draw no bet keeps the safety net in place, but the matchup still points toward Derry being the more likely outright winner.
Levante vs Osasuna — Pick: Levante DC + Under 2.5 Goals (@2.39, 6/10). Osasuna have taken just one point from their last 12 away matches and look like a team with very little urgency right now. Levante are fighting for survival and have stayed unbeaten in five home games, so this has the feel of a scrappy, narrow result rather than anything open or flashy.
Torino vs Sassuolo — Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (@1.88, 8/10). Torino have already secured survival, Sassuolo are too far off Europe to have much left to chase, and this has all the signs of a dead-rubber Serie A game. Six of the last seven head-to-head meetings have gone under 2.5, including a 1-0 earlier this season, and with key attackers missing on both sides the under makes the most sense.
Saturday Card — 9 Picks
Quick rundown of what I'm on today:
Bournemouth DNB @ 1.91 (Smarkets) — Best play of the day. Bournemouth are in form, Fulham's midfield is their weakness. 8/10.
Brighton 1st half win to nil @ 1.91 (Coolbet) — Back from a tough loss, home game vs the worst attack in the PL. Wolves have nothing. 6/10.
Inter Miami -1 AH @ 2.41 (Coolbet) — Toronto just got dumped out of the Canadian Championship by a lower-division club. They're cooked. 7/10.
Juventus to win to nil @ 2.28 (Smarkets) — Lecce are missing half their team. Juve's defense doesn't give up goals to full-strength sides, let alone this. 6/10.
Chicago ML + BTTS @ 2.45 (Coolbet) — NY Red Bulls are a leaky mess on the road. Chicago at home should handle this. 6/10.
Sevilla 2nd half win @ 2.52 (Coolbet) — 36 of last 40 matches have seen a Sevilla 2nd-half goal. Espanyol are in historic crisis (17-game winless run). 5/10.
Leverkusen ML @ 2.85 (Coolbet) — Stuttgart missing key suspension, Leverkusen in good scoring form. Value price. 5/10.
RB Leipzig -2 AH @ 2.43 (Coolbet) — Leipzig need this for UCL, St. Pauli are basically down already. 5/10.
Sunderland vs Man Utd — 1H Under 1 Goal @ 2.25 (Coolbet) — Dead rubber, neither team desperate. Expect a slow burner. 5/10.
GL all.
MLB
Let's give a shot on MLB...odds from Pinnacle Sports
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers
NYY's Cam Schlittler (5-1, 1.52 ERA, 53 SO) is arguably the best starter on today's board and one of the AL's top arms. Against Milwaukee's Kyle Harrison (3-1, 2.12 ERA, LHP), it's a quality duel, but Schlittler's elite strikeout-towalk profile gives the edge to New York, and Harrison faces a Yankees lineup that punishes fastballs and actively minimizes chase rates. Milwaukee is also navigating highly disruptive offensive injuries; Garrett Mitchell is out due to illness, and Brandon Lockridge is sidelined with a knee laceration resulting from a brutal collision with the outfield wall.
Yankees ML @ 1.775
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians
The Central Division clash at Progressive Field is mathematically defined by stark home/road pitching splits and a severe bullpen disparity. The Minnesota Twins start Joe Ryan, who holds a 3.72 overall ERA but exhibits troubling underlying data on the road (4.64 road ERA vs. 2.60 home ERA). The Cleveland Guardians rely on Tanner Bibee, whose 4.58 overall ERA completely masks his absolute dominance in his home park (1.66 home ERA vs. 8.15 road ERA).Beyond the starting pitching, the late-inning metrics heavily tilt the balance. Cleveland's bullpen maintains a 4.22 ERA, whereas Minnesota's bullpen has collapsed structurally, posting a 5.81 ERA that ranks second-worst in Major League Baseball
Cleveland Guardians ML @ 1.892
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers
The Cubs are the second hottest team in baseball (27-12) and are 5-0 in their last 5. Edward Cabrera (3-0, 3.27 ERA) vs. Jack Leiter (1-3, 5.45 ERA) is a clear SP edge.
Cubs ML @ 1.787
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The starting pitching matchup in Arizona dictates a heavy mathematical lean toward the road team. The New York Mets deploy Clay Holmes, who has successfully converted into a highly effective starter, posting a 4-2 record with a sparkling 1.69 ERA. Holmes relies on a heavy sinker profile that generates elite groundball rates, neutralizing opposing power. The Arizona Diamondbacks counter with veteran Merrill Kelly, one of the worst starters in baseball this season, whose early 2026 data is catastrophic: a 1-3 record accompanied by a massive 9.95 ERA.
Mets ML @ 1.98
impressive day.
Value Bets did great yesterday so no reason to change strategy.
Starting up with two plays, but will add more later.
Verona vs Como
Verona's relegation is confirmed, and their underlying data is bad (1.12 xG per game). Como is highly motivated by the Champions League race, generating 1.72 xG per match.
Verona's attack is structurally deficient, and Como's defense has been resolute against lower-tier opposition. Como will likely secure a lead and control possession to preserve energy.
Como to win to nil @ 2.24 with Smarkets (5/10)
Burnley vs Aston Villa
POD. Burnley is relegated, managerless, holds the joint-worst home record and has totally lost motivation since relegation has been confirmed. Aston Villa is pursuing a top-four finish and boasts overwhelming tactical superiority and comes with motivation on top after trashing Forest 4-0.
Aston Villa -1 AH @ 2.07 with Coolbet (8/10)
Crystal Palace vs Everton | Premier League
Everton haven't lost to Palace in a decade. That streak doesn't end today.
Everton arrive knowing a win could keep their European dream alive. They're disciplined, organized, and historically dominant in this fixture. Score early, drop into a defensive shell, game over.
The angle: Back Everton double chance and under 3.5 goals. If Everton grab the lead, they'll turn this into a chess match, and Palace don't have the creativity to break them down.
Watch for: The moment Palace realizes they can't find a way through. Frustration sets in. Everton hold firm.
Pick: Everton DC + Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.82 | Confidence: 6/10
Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle | Premier League
This is a long shot , but the price is too good to ignore.
Forest are down several key players and their defensive shape has looked shaky. Newcastle, meanwhile, are no strangers to a scrap and know how to nick goals on the counter.
The angle: With Forest undermanned and both defenses suspect, goals should flow both ways — and Newcastle look the more complete team right now.
Watch for: A scrappy, end-to-end game where you're constantly second-guessing yourself. High risk, but that's what the 4.25 is for.
Pick: Newcastle ML + BTTS @ 4.25 | Confidence: 4/10
Hamburger SV vs Freiburg | Bundesliga
Freiburg just reached a European final. Their legs are gone. Their clean sheet record will follow.
HSV have nothing to lose and promised to attack. Freiburg have everything to play for in terms of Conference League qualification, but their tank is running low after an exhausting European run.
The angle: Two teams with reasons to push forward and neither in a position to sit back. Goals are coming from both ends.
Watch for: A mad first half where HSV take it to an exhausted Freiburg side.
Pick: BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.88 | Confidence: 7/10
Athletic Bilbao vs Valencia | La Liga
Valencia come to San Mamés to park the bus, kill the game, and bore everyone to tears.
Under Carlos Corberan, Valencia away from home are the masters of the low block. Bilbao are good, but they tend to hammer the ball into the box and hope rather than carve defenses open.
The angle: This game will crawl. Valencia rarely score on the road and Bilbao don't create the kind of chances needed to break a packed defense. Under and no both teams scoring is the play.
Watch for: Forty minutes of Bilbao recycling possession before the crowd starts whistling. A tactical war of attrition.
Pick: Under 2.5 Goals + BTTS No | Confidence: 5/10
West Ham vs Arsenal | Premier League
Everyone thinks West Ham will score. Arsenal's last six meetings beg to differ.
The public loves backing West Ham at home, and the odds reflect it. But Arsenal have kept clean sheets in three of their last six league meetings with the Hammers, and their attack has been ruthlessly efficient.
The angle: Arsenal to win without conceding, scoring at least twice. The value isn't obvious, but the pattern is real.
Watch for: A nervy opening 20 minutes that settles the moment Arsenal convert their first real chance.
Pick: Arsenal Win to Nil + Arsenal Over 1.5 Goals @ 3.75 | Confidence: 5/10
Parma vs Roma | Serie A
Roma need Champions League football. Parma need the weekend off.
The motivation gap here is a canyon. Roma are creating chances at an impressive rate and their defense is solid enough to handle a Parma side that's been sleepwalking through fixtures since safety was confirmed.
The angle: A controlled away win, probably 1-0 or 2-0. Roma don't need to take risks. Parma don't want to be here.
Watch for: A Roma goal on the break followed by 70 minutes of professional game management.
Pick: Roma ML + Under 2.5 Goals @ 3.00+ | Confidence: 5/10
Oviedo vs Getafe | La Liga
Two teams that genuinely struggle to score, meeting each other. Someone might not turn up.
These are the two lowest-scoring sides in La Liga this season, and Getafe's defensive structure is elite outside of the big three. Oviedo's attack has been broken for months.
The angle: Getafe double chance covers the draw and the away win. Add under 2.5 goals and no both teams scoring and you've got a formula built on cold, ugly logic.
Watch for: A game so tactically cautious it looks like a training drill. Back the pick and don't watch.
Pick: Getafe DC + Under 2.5 + BTTS No @ 2.47 | Confidence: 5/10
Barcelona vs Real Madrid | La Liga — El Clásico
Barça can win the title today. Madrid are walking wounded and fighting among themselves.
This is the headline act. Barcelona lead the league and are the form team. Real Madrid arrive with defensive injuries piling up and rumors of a dressing room divided. This is not the Madrid that parks the bus.
The angle: Both teams will attack, Barcelona because they're chasing the title, Madrid because they physically can't defend. Back Barça to win with goals at both ends.
Watch for: An explosive first half, a lead change or two, and a moment, probably around the 70th minute, when you realize this is exactly why you watch football.
Pick: Barcelona ML + BTTS @ 2.62 | Confidence: 6/10
Rennes vs FC Paris | Ligue 1
Rennes are hunting a top-four spot. Their attack has been electric all season.
Both sides rank among the best in Ligue 1 for chances created, and Rennes' aggressive fullbacks consistently leave space on the counter. Clean sheets don't happen in this fixture.
The angle: Back the home side who have the crowd, the form (4 wins in their last 6 at home), and the ambition. Goals on both sides are near certain.
Watch for: A fast, open game where Rennes set the tempo early and Paris try to steal it late.
Pick: Rennes ML + BTTS @ 2.74 | Confidence: 5/10
Auxerre vs Nice | Ligue 1
Both of these teams are terrified of losing. The draw is the path of least resistance.
Nice have drawn four of their last six. A point suits them fine. Auxerre aren't in a position to push too hard either. Two cautious sides, one cautious result.
The angle: At 4.29, a draw with under 2.5 goals is a long shot with genuine logic behind it. This is a sprinkle, nothing else.
Watch for: A tepid, joyless stalemate where neither goalkeeper breaks a sweat.
Pick: Draw + Under 2.5 Goals @ 4.29 | Confidence: 4/10
Metz vs Lorient | Ligue 1
Metz haven't won in 20 games. Twenty. Games.
Metz are already relegated, conceding over two goals per game, and playing out the season on fumes. Lorient are mid-table, stable, and have nothing to fear here.
The angle: Lorient -1 Asian Handicap at 3.50 means they need to win by two, but against a team this broken, that's not a stretch.
Watch for: A limp Metz performance and Lorient killing the game off before halftime.
Pick: Lorient -1 AH @ 3.50 | Confidence: 5/10
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