Fading the Public Plays with reasoning

I've been doing well so far with Fading the Heavy Public Favorites so far so I will focus on that.

How it works: I find the Top 5 Biggest Public Favorites of the day and I LAY that bet on a betting exchange like Betfair or Smarkets.

Results so far: 16-6-2, +8.64 units

Jan 22

• The Villain's Move: Playing AGAINST Bologna ML (Risking 0.81 units to win 1 unit)

• The Public Logic: The market respects the Serie A badge. Bettors see an Italian side at home against a Scottish team and assume the technical gap is too wide to bridge.

• The Real Script: The public is paying for the "prestige" of the league rather than the reality of the team. Bologna lacks creativity and confidence, having won just one of their last nine matches in 90 minutes. Meanwhile, Celtic’s newfound defensive solidity under Martin O'Neill makes them a tough nut to crack. I'm fading the struggling favorite.

• The Villain's Move: Playing AGAINST Rangers ML (Risking 1.06 units to win 1 unit)

• The Public Logic: This looks like a mismatch on paper. Rangers have won six consecutive matches in all competitions, while the Bulgarian champions haven't played a competitive fixture since mid-December. The crowd sees "rust vs. form."

• The Real Script: When a narrative is this perfect ("one team is flying, the other is on holiday"), the line becomes inflated. The market has priced Rangers as if the result is already guaranteed. I am fading the public's overconfidence in a Rangers side that is often susceptible to the weight of expectation at Ibrox.

• The Villain's Move: Playing AGAINST Malmö FF ML (Risking 3 units to win 1 unit)

• The Public Logic: It’s 1°C with snow and rain in Sweden. The public expects a miserable, physical affair where the home side grinds out a win against a Red Star team with a poor away reputation.

• The Real Script: The weather narrative is a distraction. The actual handicap here is match fitness. Malmö is in their off-season, while Red Star is actively chasing a better playoff seed. I’m backing match sharpness over home-field climate.

• The Villain's Move: Playing AGAINST BTTS Yes (Risking 0.93 units to win 1 unit)

• The Public Logic: Braga scored in all 6 Europa League games; Forest has netted in recent away trips to Utrecht and Malmö. The stats scream "goals," and the public is hammering the "Both Teams to Score" option.

• The Real Script: When everyone expects a shootout, value often lies in the "Under" or "BTTS No." High-stakes European ties often tighten up tactically. I am betting that the market has over-adjusted for recent trends and ignored the potential for a cagey, tactical battle.

• The Villain's Move: Playing AGAINST Fenerbahce Double Chance (Risking 0.54 units to win 1 unit)

• The Public Logic: "Hell in Istanbul." The public loves backing Turkish teams at home, especially against English sides facing travel fatigue. They believe Fener will at least avoid defeat.

• The Real Script: This is a class mismatch disguised as a difficult road trip. Villa’s squad depth and tactical discipline are superior. I believe the market is overrating the "hostile atmosphere" factor and underrating Villa's ability to control the game professionally.

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How are you playing against them exactly?  Do you play opposite side on the ml or do you play the more expensive double chance?  I am not being critical in any way. Just trying to learn

I do not often play sides but i feel public money on soccer totals is better than most American sports.  No data to support.  Just an observation from games i have bet