Fading the Public Plays with reasoning

Week ended with +9.38 units profit. The week briefly touched +20 units before late variance, including a 98th-minute conceded goal, a missed penalty, and a red card meltdown in the Fenerbahce game, which pulled the result back to +17.97 units (like always)

Results so far: 167-131-9, +17.97 units
ROI%: 4.89%
Win Rate: 56.04%

Todays Slate (LAY/Play the opposite):

• Manchester United Vs Brentford: Lay BTTS Yes (Risk 0.60 Units)

• Boulogne Vs Dunkerque: Lay BTTS No (Risk 1.30 Units)

• Cagliari Vs Atalanta: Lay Under 2.5 Goals (Risk 1.00 Units)

• Lazio Vs Udinese: Lay BTTS No (Risk 0.74 Units)

• Espanyol Vs Levante: Lay Espanyol ML (Risk 1.14 Units)

• Cadiz FC Vs Las Palmas: Lay BTTS No (Risk 1.06 Units)

• AIK Vs Malmö FF: Lay BTTS Yes (Risk 0.92 Units)

• BK Häcken Vs IK Sirius: Lay BTTS Yes (Risk 0.63 Units)

• Kalmar FF Vs IF Elfsborg: Lay BTTS Yes (Risk 0.95 Units)

• Örgryte IS Vs Degerfors IF: Lay BTTS No (Risk 1.30 Units)

• Besiktas Vs Karagumruk: Lay BTTS Yes (Risk 1.00 Units)

• Konyaspor Vs Trabzonspor: Lay Under 2.5 Goals (Risk 1.36 Units)

• Gil Vicente Vs Casa Pia: Lay BTTS No (Risk 0.95 Units)

Final Totals:

• Total Risk: 12.95 Units

• Total Potential Profit: 13.00 Units

@Da_BetWhiz

 Appreciate the picks! Got lucky and hit a 5 teamer with a mix of your picks

Pretty sure yesterday did pretty well.

Pretty sure yesterday did pretty well.

10-3, +7.62 units yesterday

Today:

• Southampton Vs Ipswich: Lay Southampton ML (Risk 1.30 Units)

• PSG Vs Bayern Munich: Lay PSG ML (Risk 1.60 Units)

• Nashville SC Vs Tigres UANL: Lay BTTS No (Risk 1.10 Units)

• Libertad Vs Independiente del Valle: Lay BTTS No (Risk 1.98 Units)

• Sporting Cristal Vs Junior FC: Lay Under 2.5 Goals (Risk 0.69 Units)

• San Lorenzo Vs Santos FC: Lay BTTS Yes (Risk 1.28 Units)

• Barracas Central Vs Audax Italiano: BTTS Yes (Risk 0.92 Units)

• Recoleta FC Vs Deportivo Cuenca: Lay Recoleta ML (Risk 1.72 Units)

Final Totals:

• Total Risk: 10.59 Units

• Total Potential Profit: 8.00 Units

@Da_BetWhiz

 Wow you really think Ipswich seals the 2nd seed today? That would make Saturday meaningless for a lot of teams. A lot of $$ is on Southampton? Thanks as always for posting!

Kinda last minute today.
Yesterday was a bump in the road. We went 3-5 and dropped 2.65 units. Those Conmebol Copa games were absolutely brutal.
We have a massive Champions League clash and another deep dive into the Americas. Here is how I fade the noise today and (try) get back on track.

• Atlético Madrid Vs Arsenal: Lay Arsenal ML (Risk 1.44 Units)

• Sporting CP Vs Tondela: Lay HT/FT Sporting/Sporting (Risk 0.55 Units)

• Los Angeles FC Vs Toluca: Lay BTTS Yes (Risk 0.80 Units)

• Mirassol Vs Club Always Ready: Lay Mirassol -2 AH (Risk 1.98 Units)

• Club Atlético Platense Vs Independiente Santa Fe: Lay Santa Fe +1 AH (Risk 0.75 Units)

• Estudiantes LP Vs Flamengo: Lay Flamengo ML (Risk 1.50 Units)

• Cerro Porteño Vs Palmeiras: Palmeiras ML (Risk 1.00 Unit)

• Caracas FC Vs Racing Club: Lay Racing Club ML (Risk 0.66 Units)

Final Totals:

• Total Risk: 8.68 Units

• Total Potential Profit: 8.00 Units

So you are taking these as listed or fading the listed?

Good luck. I personally am on sporting half full as a parlay piece 

 FADING !

I know it's confusing and I will change it, but the Tracking Sheet I have set up is programmed to Fading/Laying, so I need to find some time to reprogram it, without breaking everything.

Yeah I'm always confused on your post. Are you taking what you have listed? For example, the champions League game. Are you taking Arsenal or are we supposed to fade that and take Atletico?

Double chance Atleti is def the play here. 

I only got 3 plays today because I want to make sure the month finished above 20 units profit.

Results yesterday: 5-1-2, +4.10 units
Results so far 2026: 185-140-11, +27,04

Braga vs Freiburg

The Play: LAY BTTS Yes (Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit)

The Public Logic: Both teams have potent attacks, Braga with 11 scored goals and Freiburg with 10 scored goals in Europa League this season and Braga’s has a 17.4% conversion rate,scoring 20 goals from 115 shots.

The Real Script: Braga has kept clean sheets in three of their five European home matches this term, and Freiburg is expected to adopt a compact, defensive posture to mitigate Braga's home efficiency. Braga has maintained a competition-high seven clean sheets, while Freiburg has four and they recently lost 4-0 to Dortmund.

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa

The Play: LAY BTTS Yes  (Risking 0.89 units to win 1 unit)

The Public Logic: Villa need an away goal and Forest are lethal on the counter.

The Real Script: Villa has conceded only four away goals in the tournament and Unai Emery has reached the final in five of his six previous Europa League semi-final appearances, and he's experienced enough to play conservatively in the first leg on the road and then seal it at home.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Crystal Palace

The Play: Lay Crystal Palace ML (Risking 1.12 units to win 1 unit)

The Public Logic: Palace's PL experience and Shakhtar's weakened pseudo-home edge makes this the best value pick

The Real Script: While Palace operates in a higher-intensity domestic league, Shakhtar’s superior form, lack of injuries, and historical knockout pedigree (as 2009 UEFA Cup winners) make them slight favorites to avoid defeat in the first leg. They don't play at home in Ukraine, but their adaptation to Polish venues has been statistically successful.

Girona FC vs RCD Mallorca

The Play: LAY Girona ML (Risking 1.14 units to win 1 unit)

The Public Logic: Girona has won all three previous top-flight home meetings against Mallorca, and a season double is probable given Mallorca’s winless away streak that has persisted since October.

The Real Script: Girona has managed only one win in their last five outings and Girona will likely prioritize defensive solidity to maintain their three-point gap over Mallorca.

so double mal? Tie no bet? 

@vaas187

 Yes. Fade girona is what he is saying. 

curious his thought 

You are supposed to fade/play the opposite

Depending on the bookie it can be:

Mallorca X2

Mallorca DC (Double Chance)

Mallorca +0.5 Asian Handicap

Laying Girona ML (on P2P betting sites like Betfair (Polymarket for sports))

The advantage of Laying instead of playing DC, X2 etc is that the odds are always better, even after the 2%-5% commissions

@Da_BetWhiz

 Thanks for Mallorca. 

tons of early matches tomorrow!

It's my working weekend so I only have games from the bigger leagues this weekend, I also tried to skip the games where one team has clearly checked-out.


Brentford vs West Ham United: Lay Brentford ML (Risk 0.94 Units)
Newcastle United vs Brighton: Lay Brighton ML (Risk 1.74 Units)
Arsenal vs Fulham: Lay BTTS No (Risk 0.86 Units)
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV: Lay Frankfurt ML (Risk 1.8 Units)
FC Bayern München vs FC Heidenheim 1846: Lay Over 3.5 Goals (Risk 0.67 Units)
Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart: LAY Hoffenheim ML (Risk 1.5 Units)
Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig: LAY Bayer Leverkusen ML (Risk 1.3 units)
Udinese vs Torino: LAY BTTS Yes (Risk 1 unit)
Como vs Napoli: LAY Como ML (Risk 1.36 units)
Atalanta vs Genoa: LAY Atalanta ML (Risk 0.59 units)
Paris Saint-Germain vs Lorient: LAY Over 3.5 Goals (Risk 1.24 units)

3rd May:

• Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace: LAY Over 2.5 Goals (Risk 0.75 Units)
• Manchester United vs Liverpool: LAY Man United DNB (Risk 0.78 Units)
• Real Betis vs Real Oviedo: LAY Over 2.5 Goals (Risk 1.02 units)
• Sassuolo vs AC Milan: LAY Milan ML (Risk 0.79 units)
• Juventus vs Hellas Verona: LAY Over 2.5 Goals (Risk 0.70 Units)
• Inter Milan vs Parma: LAY BTTS Yes (Risk 1.26 Units)
• St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05: LAY Mainz DNB (Risk 0.92 Units)
• Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg: LAY Freiburg ML (Risk 1.66 units)
• Auxerre vs Angers: LAY Over 2.5 Goals (Risk 1.14 units)
• Strasbourg vs Toulouse: LAY Strasbourg ML (Risk 2.15 units)
• Lyon vs Rennes: LAY Lyon ML (Risk 1.1 units)

P.S LAY means play the opposite