Fading the Public Plays with reasoning

Starting up with playing AGAINST Besiktas -1.5 AH (Risking 0.99 units to win 1 unit) Eyupspor might be second from last but they have covered this line 3 straight games and 8 out of last 10 and also last time these two teams met, (Starting in 30 minutes)

Everton Vs Leeds

The Villain's Move: Playing AGAINST Leeds ML (Risking 2.15 units to win 1 unit)

The Public Logic: The team news is ugly for the Toffees. Missing key midfielders like Alcaraz, Dewsbury-Hall, Iroegbunam, and Keane has the public sprinting to bet on Leeds to exploit a depleted squad.

The Real Script: Leeds struggles massively to score on the road. Everton, even depleted, will adopt a "do not lose" mentality. Their defensive structure remains superior to Leeds' attack. I expect a gritty, ugly affair where Everton digs in, making the Leeds straight win a poor value play.

Verona Vs Udinese

The Villain's Move: Playing AGAINST Udinese ML (Risking 1.82 units to win 1 unit)

The Public Logic: A classic "Form vs. Slump" bet. Verona is 19th, winless in six, and looks doomed.
Udinese is comfortably 10th and safe. The public asks: "How can Verona possibly win?"

The Real Script: Motivation beats class in this spot. Udinese is stranded in mid-table desert, safe from the regulation, but too far from Europe.
They have nothing to play for. Verona is fighting for their lives. In Serie A, a desperate team at home often finds a gear that a comfortable team cannot match.

Le Mans Vs Dunkerque

The Villain's Move: Playing AGAINST Dunkerque ML (Risking 1.98 units to win 1 unit)

The Public Logic: Dunkerque is on fire, unbeaten in 9 Ligue 2 games and undefeated in their last 6 away trips.
The public sees them as an unstoppable force.

The Real Script: Dunkerque can't win forever. Le Mans has been quietly stable at home, and for them, this is a crucial "six-pointer" to keep their promotion playoff hopes alive. I am fading the long unbeaten streak in favor of the desperate home side needing a result.

Norwich Vs Coventry

The Villain's Move: Playing AGAINST Coventry ML (Risking 1.32 units to win 1 unit)

The Public Logic: Coventry arrives as league leaders and top scorers (61 goals). They are the media darlings, playing with freedom and dismantling defenses. The public expects the juggernaut to roll on.

The Real Script: Norwich is no joke. Fresh off a 5-0 demolition of West Brom, they are an ascending force pushing for survival.
Carrow Road is becoming a fortress again. When an unstoppable force meets an immovable object at home, I fade the public road favorite every time.

Saturday + Sunday ended with -4.34 units
2.8 units of that is from when Aston Villa beat Newcastle on the road

Monday was back to winning with 4-1, +2.18 units

Total results: 32-18-3, +11.54 units
Overall ROI%: 18.12%
Win Rate: 64%

This is super so far, a great start!

How much is your "unit" as a % from your initial bankroll?

@jersey_dude

 5%

It's a great start, let's see how it goes, on average I need to hit over 65% of the plays because of how low the odds are.
I'm planning to maybe do Top 3 instead of Top 5 and lower some of the risk.

My Personal Plays (Not a part of the Public Plays), they will be posted later)

Playing AGAINST Frankfurt ML - Risking 3.6 units to win 1 unit
Frankfurt concedes for fun and that's the reason why they are eliminated from UCL and the upcoming match against Bayern Leverkusen is more important than this one. Tottenham on the other hand are fully motivated.

Playing AGAINST Slavia Praha - Risking 1.5 units to win 1 unit
Similar reasoning here, Slavia already eliminated and have nothing to play for while Pafos still has small chance

Ajax Vs Olympiacos

• The Villain's Move: Playing AGAINST Olympiacos (Risking 1.40 units to win 1 unit)
• The Public Logic: The public has written Ajax off. They see the poor domestic performance and the struggles in Europe this season and see value on the Greek visitors.
• The Real Script: History matters in elimination games. Olympiacos has a notoriously poor record when playing in the Netherlands. In matches where elimination is the only alternative, the Johan Cruyff Arena factor bridges the quality gap. I am fading the visitors and backing Ajax's European heritage to survive.

Club Brugge Vs Marseille

• The Villain's Move: Playing AGAINST Marseille ML (Risking 1.72 units to win 1 unit)
• The Public Logic: Marseille has the star power—specifically Mason Greenwood—and the lethal attack. The public looks at Brugge’s recent home form (only two wins in five) and assumes the French side will outscore them.
• The Real Script: An attack is only as good as its defense, and Marseille's backline is prone to massive lapses. We saw the errors pile up against Liverpool. Brugge is a tough place to go on a European night, and I expect Marseille’s defensive fragility to cost them the win the public expects.

Benfica Vs Real Madrid

• The Villain's Move: Playing AGAINST Real Madrid ML (Risking 1.89 units to win 1 unit)
• The Public Logic: "It’s Real Madrid in the Champions League." The logic stops there. The public believes that when it's CL night, Los Blancos are invincible.
• The Real Script: This isn't the invincible Madrid of old. They have been inconsistent all season and are currently navigating a defensive injury crisis. Benfica is desperate; they need this win. I am betting on the desperate home dog over the inconsistent favorite relying on reputation.

Paris SG Vs Newcastle

• The Villain's Move: Playing AGAINST Paris SG -1.5 AH (Risking 1.00 unit to win 1 unit)
• The Public Logic: PSG at the Parc des Princes against an English side? The public sees a multi-goal blowout for the superior French squad.
• The Real Script: PSG looked awful against Auxerre in the league, and Newcastle is built to frustrate them. Just like two years ago, the Magpies will bring a physical, gritty game plan that PSG hates. I expect a tight, scrappy affair, making the -1.5 handicap a massive reach.

Napoli Vs Chelsea

• The Villain's Move: Playing AGAINST Over 2.5 Goals (Risking 0.96 units to win 1 unit)
• The Public Logic: Napoli needs to win, so they have to attack. The public equation is simple: Desperation + Attackers = Goals Galore.
• The Real Script: Game state dictates everything. If Chelsea scores one on the counter (which they are built to do) they will kill the game. They won't chase a second; they will suffocate Napoli. I am fading the "open game" narrative for a tense, tactical under.

5% on each play seems too high to me, I mean if you have a day with 5 plays you are risking 25% of your bankroll, and if you have a shitty day, let's say going 1-4 (that can happen at any time) then you have lost a big chunk of your BR in a single day.

Anyways, it is a great start, I wish you luck to go strong with this system. 

sorry, double posted...

VfB Stuttgart Vs Young Boys

• The Villain's Move: Playing AGAINST Stuttgart -2 AH (Risking 0.95 units to win 1 unit)

• The Public Logic: The public points to Young Boys' awful defensive form (conceding 2+ goals in four straight UEL matches) and contrasts it with Stuttgart’s attack averaging 2.1 goals per game.

• The Real Script: Stuttgart are rightful favorites, but the market has lost its mind. They are being treated like prime Barcelona with a -2 Asian Handicap. That line implies a blowout is inevitable, but in European competition, these margins are rarely sustained against desperate opponents. I'm fading the "guaranteed thrashing" narrative.

Porto Vs Rangers

• The Villain's Move: Playing AGAINST FC Porto -1.5 AH (Risking 0.82 units to win 1 unit)

• The Public Logic: Porto is a machine at home—winning all but one of their last 10 competitive matches and riding a six-match winning streak at the Estádio do Dragão. The public sees a comfortable multi-goal win.

• The Real Script: Winning is one thing; covering a -1.5 spread is another. In reality, Porto has been efficient rather than explosive in Europe, managing only one win by 2+ goals in their last seven Europa League matches. Rangers have the European pedigree to keep this competitive and stay within the number.

Villa Vs Salzburg

• The Villain's Move: Playing AGAINST Aston Villa ML (Risking 0.45 units to win 1 unit)

• The Public Logic: Villa is flying high in 2nd place in the Premier League. The public sees this as a mismatch in class.

• The Real Script: This is the classic "Motivation Trap." Villa has already secured their Round of 16 berth. Unai Emery has a massive Premier League fixture against Brentford coming up and is deep in a title race. Reports strongly indicate he will "rest and rotate" key stars. I am fading a B-team priced like an A-team.

Lyon Vs PAOK

• The Villain's Move: Playing AGAINST Lyon -1.5 AH (Risking 1.34 units to win 1 unit)

• The Public Logic: Lyon sits 1st with 18 points, dominating the group. The public expects them to crush a "lesser" Greek side to cap off a perfect stage.

• The Real Script: For Lyon, this is a dead rubber. For PAOK, it's a massive opportunity. The Greeks arrive in France on a seven-game winning run, fresh off beating Real Betis. They still have a theoretical chance at the Top 8. I'm backing the form and motivation of the visitors over the complacency of the hosts.

Genk Vs Malmö

• The Villain's Move: Playing AGAINST Genk ML (Risking 0.35 units to win 1 unit)

• The Public Logic: The public has looked at Malmö's recent results and decided they "suck." They are blindly backing the home team.

• The Real Script: The odds on Genk are almost criminal. This is a team sitting 11th in the Belgian League, yet they are priced like a dominant European force. Malmö might be struggling, but there is zero value in backing a mediocre Genk side at these prices. I'm fading the price, not just the team.

Stuttgart Vs Young Boys

Porto Vs Rangers

Villa Vs Salzburg

Lyon Vs PAOK

Genk Vs Malmö 

idk why, but can't get the team names to stuck above each paragraph...lol

@jersey_dude

 Yes, it kinda is, but in theory I thought the odds on all the biggest favorites would be around 1.10 to 1.30, meaning I would actually risk 0.10 to 0.30 units on each bet (to win 1 unit). But in reality, the public only uses the 1.20 odds plays in parlays and many times uses Handicap plays to increase the odds close to 2.00 or above when playing singles and it's correct that I'm taking big risks (bigger than I thought)

Anyways, not taking it too seriously, just yet

P.S Lyon is supposed to be Lyon ML and not Lyon -1.5 AH..my apologies

I'm busy today but I'm still gonna post the Top 5 bets and their odds if you chose to LAY them at Smarkets for stats and transparency

Twente ML @ 2.22
Lazio ML  @ 2.34
Espanyol ML @ 2.06
FC Köln vs Wolfsburg - Draw @ 4
Lens vs Le Havre Lens & Over 2.5 @ 2.12

@Da_BetWhiz

 So were fading these team you have listed? 

@Shortporch

 Yes, sorry for being unclear

Results so far: 40-25-3, +12.88 units

ROI%: 15.65%
Win Rate: 61.54%

Where do you get public bets

@Seahawks14

 I won't share my exact methods, but several betting and pool sites share the % and exchange sites like Betfair, Smarkets & Betdaq share the amount of money matched.
By doing a bit of detective work and putting the pieces together, you can figure it out.

"FC Köln vs Wolfsburg - Draw @ 4
Lens vs Le Havre Lens & Over 2.5 @ 2.12"

So I see you're not only fading public fav teams any more, but you are complicating things.

I mean you never had before play on a draw, and never had parlays. (Sorry of you had before some of these types of bets, maybe I have not looked carefully.)

@jersey_dude

 I was assuming Public always did bet on Favorites, but I've noticed that when there are days like yesterday with very few games and favorites, the degenerates always finds some other plays to waste their money on

Fading the Top 5 Biggest Public Plays
Results so far: Results so far: 40-25-3, +12.88 units

ROI%: 15.65%
Win Rate: 61.54%

Starting up with English Leagues:

Wolverhampton Vs Bournemouth
The Play: Playing AGAINST Bournemouth ML (Risking 1.44 units to win 1 unit)

The Public Logic: The public looks at the stats and sees a disaster: Wolves have the league's worst xG (1.07), sit dead last, and are being branded as one of the "worst PL teams ever."

The Real Script: The public is reacting to old data. In reality, Wolves have improved significantly in recent weeks, losing just one of their last five matches. Meanwhile, the Cherries have been woeful travelers, winning just once on the road all season. I'm fading the road favorite who can't seem to win away.

Brighton Vs Everton
The Play: Playing AGAINST Everton Double Chance (Risking 1.16 units to win 1 unit)

The Public Logic: Brighton has only one win in their last ten matches. The public sees a team in freefall and sees value in Everton getting a point (Double Chance).

The Real Script: Brighton is a sleeping giant waiting to wake up. They have the squad quality to turn this slump around, and today is the perfect opportunity. Everton is missing their creative spark, Jack Grealish. I am betting on the home side to finally click against a depleted visitor.

Leeds Vs Arsenal
The Play: Playing AGAINST Arsenal -1 AH (Risking 1.06 units to win 1 unit)

The Public Logic: It's Arsenal. The brand name alone attracts money, especially against a "smaller" club like Leeds.

The Real Script: The Gunners are misfiring. They are winless in their last three Premier League games, and key playmaker Martin Ødegaard has been drastically underperforming. Leeds, backed by their fans at Elland Road crowd, always fight until the final whistle. I expect a dogfight, not an Arsenal procession.

Liverpool Vs Newcastle
The Play: Playing AGAINST Liverpool ML (Risking 0.82 units to win 1 unit)

The Public Logic: Liverpool just thrashed Qarabag in Europe, while Newcastle is winless in three PL games and coming off a grueling trip to Paris. The public sees a rested giant smashing a tired team.

The Real Script: Don't let a European blowout fool you. Liverpool hasn't won a league game since late December (vs Wolves). Newcastle proved their grit by surviving in Paris against PSG. If they can avoid defeat there, they are more than capable of frustrating a Liverpool side that struggles for consistency in the league.

Chelsea Vs West Ham
The Play: Playing AGAINST Chelsea ML (Risking 0.61 units to win 1 unit)

The Public Logic: Chelsea usually dominates this London derby at Stamford Bridge. The public expects the Blues to roll over their struggling neighbors.

The Real Script: This isn't the same West Ham. The Hammers have found newfound energy thanks to January signings like Pablo and Castellanos. They are fighting for their Premier League survival, and that desperation often trumps history. I'm fading the comfortable home favorite for the desperate, re-energized underdog.

Other Leagues

Hamburger SV Vs FC Bayern Munich
The Play: Playing AGAINST Bayern Munich -1.5 AH (Risking 0.92 units to win 1 unit)

The Public Logic: The narrative is simple: "The Wounded Animal." The public expects a violent reaction from Bayern after last week's shocking loss. They believe Bayern will crush whoever is next in line to prove a point.

The Real Script: Anger doesn't guarantee goals. While Bayern will dominate possession, Hamburger SV knows exactly what is coming. I expect them to park the bus, play a low block, and do everything to frustrate the Bavarians. A 0-1 or 1-2 grind is far more likely than the 0-5 blowout the public is betting on.

RB Leipzig Vs FSV Mainz 05
The Play: Playing AGAINST RB Leipzig ML (Risking 0.64 units to win 1 unit)

The Public Logic: Leipzig has the superior squad quality and Champions League pedigree. The public looks at Mainz and sees a team they should beat comfortably at home.

The Real Script: The public is ignoring the tactical mismatch. Leipzig has struggled massively to break down disciplined defenses recently, showing a lack of creativity in the final third. Mainz is built to frustrate teams exactly like this. I'm fading the heavy favorite who is wobbling in possession.

Augsburg Vs St. Pauli
The Play: Playing AGAINST Augsburg ML (Risking 1.16 units to win 1 unit)

The Public Logic: Recency bias is powerful. The public saw Augsburg beat the mighty Bayern Munich last week and assumes they will ride that wave of success to an easy win against a relegation candidate.

The Real Script: This is the classic "Letdown Spot." After the emotional high of beating Bayern, Augsburg is prime for a regression. St. Pauli is fighting for their survival in the Bundesliga; they are desperate, gritty, and willing to scrap for a 0-0 or 1-1. I'm backing the desperate team over the complacent one.

Marseille Vs Paris FC
The Play: Playing AGAINST Marseille ML (Risking 0.88 units to win 1 unit)

The Public Logic: Marseille won the reverse fixture 5-2 and has won six of the last nine H2Hs. They are leading Ligue 1 and playing at the Vélodrome. The public sees this as a coronation.

The Real Script: Heavy is the head that wears the crown. The pressure on Marseille to maintain their lead is suffocating. Paris FC, the upstart rival, plays with zero fear. Do Marseille have the nerves to close this out, or will the weight of the Vélodrome crush them? I'm betting on the latter.

Napoli Vs Fiorentina
The Play: Playing AGAINST Napoli ML (Risking 1.06 units to win 1 unit)

The Public Logic: Napoli is unbeaten at home—a fortress. Fiorentina sits in 18th place. The public puts these two facts together and bets the house on the home win.

The Real Script: The "Unbeaten" tag masks the cracks. Napoli has actually only won once in their last seven matches, drawing far too often. They are also missing key players to injury. Fiorentina is in the relegation zone but rarely fails to score; they are a dangerous, desperate team that can easily snatch a point against a depleted Napoli.

My Personal Non-System Plays

Oxford Utd vs Birmingham
The Play: Playing AGAINST Oxford ML (Risking 2.85 units to win 1 unit)

QPR vs Coventry
The Play: Playing AGAINST RB QPR ML (Risking 3.05 units to win 1 unit)

Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin
The Play: Playing AGAINST Union Berlin ML (Risking 3.40 units to win 1 unit)

Ok, yesterday, was the day I was fearing would come, with 0-5 in the Premier League.
I've decreased the number of plays from five to three to lower the risk.

Results so far: 43-32-3, +8.57 units
ROI%: 9.31%
Win Rate: 57.33%

Real Madrid Vs Rayo Vallecano
Play: Playing AGAINST Real Madrid -2.5 AH (Risking 1.94 units to win 1 unit)

The Public Logic: The "Reaction Narrative." The public expects a violent response from Real Madrid after their loss to Benfica. They believe Los Blancos will take out their frustration on Rayo and win by 3 or 4 goals.

The Real Script: We saw this exact scenario play out yesterday with Bayern Munich—it is easier said than done. Covering a -2.5 Asian Handicap requires a perfect performance and a collapsing opponent. Rayo is tough enough to keep this respectable. I am fading the blowout; Madrid might win, but a three-goal margin is a massive ask for a team out of rhythm.

2. Toulouse Vs Auxerre
The Play: Playing AGAINST Toulouse "Win to Nil" (Risking 1.96 units to win 1 unit)

The Public Logic: A statistical slam dunk. Auxerre has scored only one goal in ten away matches and failed to score in three straight. Toulouse boasts three consecutive home clean sheets. The public sees a 1-0 or 2-0 comfortable win.

The Real Script: "Win to Nil" is one of the most fragile bets in football. All it takes is one moment of madness—a deflection, a penalty, or a set-piece scrap—to kill the bet. The odds imply Auxerre has zero chance of scoring, but variance suggests a "freak goal" is overdue. I'm betting on the chaos factor to ruin the clean sheet.

3. Tottenham Vs Manchester City
The Play: Playing AGAINST Manchester City ML (Risking 0.76 units to win 1 unit)

The Public Logic: Spurs are decimated by injuries. City is the machine. The public sees a mismatch in quality and health, expecting Pep's men to roll over the North Londoners.

The Real Script: History ignores the injury report. Tottenham has become a genuine "bogey team" for Pep Guardiola. Spurs have won three of the last four and six of the past 11 meetings, including a dominant 0-2 win at the Etihad back in August. Styles make fights, and Spurs' transition game consistently hurts City. I'm fading the favorite against their Kryptonite.

The shitty thing about soccer betting is that there are days (usually Sat and Sun) when there are easily 10 big public fav games to be found, and other days (midweek days, and summer months) when is difficult to find even 3 big public fav games.

I was thinking here just about fading moneyline bets, but maybe if including all the Total bets, and all other types of bets each day is almost impossible not to find 3 big fav games to fade...