New Orleans at Indianapolis (02/07/2010)

• The Vikings gained more on the ground (165-68)
• The Vikings gained more yards through the air (310-197)
• The Vikings averaged more yards per play (5.8 to 4.7)
• The Vikings were better on third downs (58% to 25%)

If this years performance in the Super Bowl by both teams as exciting and outstanding as it was last year, I will once in my life try to make a live one while I'm alive cause all this talk about the Saints being beaten is killing me. I don't know what else to say but come Sunday, The Saints speak for them selves and the Who Dats will be in Burboun St. partying as if it was "Mardi Gras". I only wish I could be there cause I'm sure it will be better than Miami has to offer at that time when the Saints Drew Brees and Coach Sean Peyton lift that trophy of acknowledgement of Saints being the 2009 NFL Champions. 

"Do Not" I repeat "Do Not "waste your hard earned money on the obvious sucker bet and that would be laying the points for Indi. This game could go both ways but the smart play is Saints +5.5.

     Every Super Bowl in the last 3 years came down to "who wants it more" and every big game this year came down to "who has the better QB". By QB rating I think we know who wins that category. These 2 guys have showed us all year long that they can score on any defense they go up against. Yes, have respect for the "D" but stopping these two from scoring 30 points each for their team is a hard one to swallow. If you don't see the "OVER" do not play the O/U. There will be a lot of scoring in this game. Both offense and defense will see the End Zone. 30 points is merely a TD per quarter (15 minutes) and if these two offenses aren't capable of such then they should have not been ranked #1 and #2 in total offense for most of the season if not all season long.

     It is the Saints that wants this more no doubt and by the looks of it, Vegas has the majority beat already.

  Saints by 6  and definitely leaning the over. I see this game going over 40 by Half Time. I don't see any let up by both teams even if the points are lop sided in the 3rd.

               Enjoy the game and good luck. 808PickyBoy

Same page Colonel Jim.  I made the decision in the 1st half of the Saints/Minny game that if the Saints played Indy in the SB, I was taking Indy.  Just way, way too many penalties for the Saints in every game.  Also, the Indy defense is better than most think and most certainly better than Minny.  Throw away the Dolphins game and Indy has one of the best run defenses out there.  I just don't see the Saints stopping whatever Manning wants to do.  I believe this will be a very workman like, efficient, and convincing win.

Indy -5'
Under 56'

Is anyone keeping track of what the "regulars" pick like past years?

Gl all, Tex

 No Freeny and the points will drop.

Anyone know the weather forecast for Sunday?

Manning scored 29 points against Chicago in a torrential downpour.

I'm taking the Colts Moneyline.... I locked in a very small wager when the line opened.... now I'll wait for the public to jump on the Saints, wait until the moneyline drops again, and bet the Colts ML....

last year I took the PITT ML, and shitted my pants several times...

The year prior I took the GMEN, getting 7.5..... (I wish I took the ML)

The year prior I took the COLTS ML..... I was a little nervous when Hester ran the kick back....

the last superbowl I lost was when I bet Rich Gannon and the Raiders.... I wish I could have that one back LOL.....

 

though my playoff record is atrousious every year, and every year I never learn and continue to bet through the playoffs, I am very good at capping the superbowl...

I have a strong feeling that the COLTS will win the game, but I see a backdoor cover happening, so I'm not laying any points....

Manning Beats the Blitz

Colts 31

Saints 24

GL TO ALL....

 

 

On the Road...

Saints

Philly (no McNabb, Kolb threw 3 picks)
Buff
Miami
STL
TB
WASH
ATL (no Ryan)
Carolina (starters didn't play)

INDY

Miami
Zona
Tenn
STL
BAL
HOU
JAX
Buff (starters didn't play)

In my opinion.... the Colts are more "road tested".... Saints didn't really have a tough team to play on the road the whole season... all of their tough competition came to New Orleans....

if you take out the crowd noise of the Superdome, their defense is not nearly as good....

 

GL TO ALL!

Playoff record amongst "regulars " .Rookies and above,who posted 

5-6????

that number does no justice for the beating I took this post-season....

had it not been for the OVER of the Saints/Vikes game, I may not be betting superbowl

I wasn't included.  Not that it matters.  I certainly don't need reminding of my 4-6 playoff record.  Needless to say, I have Indy -5' and under 56'.

Anyway, nice job on putting it together, now how about all of our picks on the SB?

Tex

Interesting that the first and only middle through 10 playoff games came in New Orleans - I thought the Vikes would have kicked a fg earlier and lost 28-24, losing ATS and keeping the game under.  Clearly now everyone takes the over for the Super Bowl, so i agree totally with all the under posters, that is the play.

Also, remember this game is neutral field, so Indy has no business giving 6, at best they should be laying 2.5, as there is no way the Saints would be a home dog if in N.O., and the Colts would lay 6 at best in Indy.  Anyway, watch out for the disinformation media coming this week - current soundbite is that Freeney may not play, contributing to more Saint points toward a cover and an over.  The Saints, while they do have game for sure, are "happy to be there", and the New Orleans economy got a needed shot in the arm with their NFC title.  But Peyton is already on the back nine of his career, and he will not let this chance for ring # 2 and official elevation to superstar status (i.e. Elway, Brady, etc) go to waste.  The books will be pushing to get late money on New Orleans getting almost a touchdown, but the Colts will cover and go under.  Remember that Broncos / Falcons game 10 years or so back - spread was 7 for 2 weeks and went to 8 day before with a lot of sharp money - Broncos were up by 21 with 2 minutes to play, then Atlanta scored and "botched" the over (hint, hint) by missing a 2-point conversion - final result Denver and the under.  Look for a repeat here, although the 2 TD gap is the largest I see - N.O. should not embarass themselves.  I look for the kickers to see action, maybe at least 2 FG each.

More towards the conspiracy theory (rebuttal welcome, but this really works), New Orleans is now 1-1 ATS in the playoffs, therefore "disqualified" from being a single or dual 3-0 ATS team in the playoffs.  Thanks to only one middle so far, nobody else can qualify - the Vikes went 2-0 but are done.  Hey, i'm not saying i love this - i thought San Diego would go all the way but only cover 1 out of 3, but that didn't happen.

If someone out there is counting, i am standing by a Colts ATS / under pick, although admittedly i don't feel as strong about this as other years.  Also a note to beware to teaser bettors - the best "easy money" play out there looks like a 6 pointer, so something like Indy Pik-Em and over 50.  For that reason, i think a final of 27-20 or even 30-20 could come to pass.  Remember, the man wants to make money on this one, now there is not even a forward Pro Bowl to get some money on the following week.

GL everyone - don't bet the house on my pick!

Freeny Will Not Play

Will definitely make it more interesting w/o DF in the lineup.  I wouldn't be surprised to see both coaches go the conservative route and run more and pass less as the game goes on, this is one of those games you could play 6 times and get all 6 possible combination results with cover/win, win/middle, or outright dog win, each with over or under.  Still favor the colts and under; while n.o. will adjust on offense, the colts will find a way to adjust on d.

Hoping for the "easy tell" near gameday, like Barrett Robins going AWOL or that Atlanta DB getting tagged for john-ing.

Like breakabookie, i also shat the bed when Hester returned the opening KO for a TD few years back against my Colts/under play there, thankfully some "odd" play and usual holding penalties kept the Colts from scoring twice inside the 10-minute mark when they were on the edge of going over.

Are you counting out the game vs Miami in Miami? In my opinion, Miami at home, their defense is by far more superior than the Colts. Saints scored 46 points after being down 21. This is the first time Saints are actually getting points and if you don't think that is a gift well? Good  luck but once again BaB, I think you are on the wrong team, but thats just my opinion and I do respect yours. Just sayin.

On the same note 12-13 games  vs 6 for Colts, offense scored over 30 points. Saints also played the tougher teams to get here I think wether they are at home or not. One of those teams also came off a bye and had time to rest. Yes that was Minn and yes the TO's was a big factor but most if not all were caused by defense.

808PickyBoy

Not that it matters or maybe it will to you. I was 6-2 going into last weeks games. I was off by 1 point in the Indi/ Jets Game. I posted Indi 31 Jet 17. The Saints game I posted Saints 38 - Minn 27. I took overs obviosly on both games.

I have been hot in the p[layoffs. After last week I am 9-3. That is pretty good in any standards. So if you disregard my stats because my postings do not interest you, then maybe you should keep an opened mind

9-3 in the playoffs. my picks

Saints win out right by 6+ points.

Over is without a doubt to happen.

Game points prediction

Saints - 43-45

Colts - 34-35

you are welcome.

808PickyBoy

It's hard to bet against the Colts and the Manning machine...

But Believe It When You See It...

 THE NFL WANTS THE SAINTS TO WIN

I like most of what you've said here picky and I picked out the points i liked. Im trying to pick through your Saints bias and I dont blame ya, if my donkeys were in the bowl i would be riding or dying with them no matter what. But I do keep that in mind when reading ur posts. 

The more i think about it this line is a little suspect. But I see it as a Colts 31-35 to Saints 24-28, right in that area. So call it a coin flip. I ususally follow my rule: dont bet against payton. That has definitly paid off over the years. I have won far more betting on the colts then against them and I cant say the same for the saints. This line opened around 4 and overnight shot to 5.5. So the "wise guys" jumped on the colts early and if you ask me 4 might as well be 5.5. So the early jump doesn't worrie me to much. I feel like Vegas nailed it with a 5.5 line, high enough to get the on the fencers to bite and take the points and the Saints fans to turn out there pockets. But low enough for the colts to still cover. The question thats got me is are we going to see a Saints team like we did the Monday night when they reopened the superdome against atl? I dont think so. Brees just doesnt strike me as a big game QB. Hes f'n good dont get me wrong and they will get there points in this one. And your right it comes down to QB play and who wants it more and if you think for one minute the colts wont be ready and payton wont be focused you and your who dats will be in for a long day. Im laying the points, taking the COLTS.

But I am riding with you on the Over

Like I said early in this tread I would like to see the saints win but I cant be convinced.

GL   

HEY and whats the MONEY LINE on the colts at -225?-250? Bet jamrock hasn't posted one yet and I was hoping someone would post it. Whos got it?

my local house has it at -230. hope this helps

ONE SOLID DIRTY HIT ON OLE PAYTON.......

and yippe kay HEY!   COLTS are a lost crew!

oops.............that hit was just a bit late, 15 yards oh boy!

Let's continue da game without pig-nose manning! 

THERE WILL BE SUCH A NASTY TACKLE ON HIM.........................

SUPER BOWL OR WHATEVER, ole Manning would'nt be coming out after half-time...........

YOU READ IT HERE !

imo= in my opinion

Now the line drops a point after holding steady for a week.  Interesting eh??  It shoots up a point in the first 24 hours......holds for a week, then drops back to the opening number after both teams arrive and the Saints say all the right things on camera and Freeney isn't going to play or at least, not be close to 100% if he does. 

America loves a good underdog.  The media seems to be leading the unafiliated fans to New Orleans side with the story's and slants they are covering over the last few days.  Vegas moves the number down, hopes a few more people jump on the Saints, since the early money was on the Colts.  The Dogs have barked the last few years in the SB, no doubt.  But just sit tight now.....wait to see what the number does the last 48 hours after the media drenches you with New Orleans stories.......Katrina, first SB ever, Reggie gets married if they win, parade planned win or lose, if they win it kicks off Mardi Gras.........you get the point........the media loves the Saints stories and Indy is boring and doesn't really have any. 

Vegas is begging money to come in on the Saints!!!!!  Pound on the Colts!!!!  First time visitors to the big game don't EVER win unless they are there at the beginning of a dynasty.  Think about it.......SF, Pitt, GB, Giants.......are really the only first time winners.......and they all returned soon after and won more. I don't think New Orleans is that kind of team.  I don't see a dynasty coming up for them.  Arizona, Philly, Buff, Minny, Cincy, Denver, Oak, Dallas, Rams, Seattle, Atlanta didn't win the first time in the game!!!!! 

The odd stat is that Tampa did........But they had a ridiculous defense........the Saints certainly don't.............and nobody that has lost to Tampa in the regular season has ever won a SB.  HHHMMMMMM 

I'm on Manning's side here.......along with the boys in the desert. 

DUNGY HAD THE UNDER!!!!!

the bold teams were the good teams that they both faced... so Miami is a solid squad with a good defense....

I was just saying that they really didn't play anyone tough on the road and much of their success is because they played all their tough games at home, with the crowd.... that's a huge factor....

I remember watching Jason Campbell rip apart that defense.... Washington should have won that game with a chip-shot field goal.... in the Miami game they shot themselves in the foot and gave that game away....

as far as the Vikings game, I feel the Saints defense stepped up and cause most of those turnovers....

the Saints also had a more convincing win over the Patriots than the Colts did....

imagine this game becomes an alabama/texas bettors worst nightmare and Peyton Manning gets injured on the first series ala Colt McCoy? lol

Thank You! -230 is right in between what I guessed it at. But anyone who is thinking about taking COLTS ML should just lay the points. Putting down 2.3:1 is too much for the gain.