CD Newsletter Week 14

Week 13 was profitable for most of the Newsletter regulars, many of whom cashed in big with the Steelers ML win.

The week finished with an old school MNF tilt that featured tremendous wind gusts and a big coaching discrepancy (at least for this game) that was so wide that it isn't often seen in the NFL. Said discrepancy served Sac well ... not so much for Hugh.

Onto week 14 ...

Pitt @ Minny -3.5 (44.5)

The Big Bens coming off a huge win against a bitter rival, going against a team which just lost to a previously win-less team that pretty much killed their playoff hopes. Pitt has everything to play for. Vikings, who will probably be without Thielen and Cook, have nothing to play for. All the momo is going the Steelers direction as should most of the betting public.

LV @ KC -9.5 (48.5)

Mahomes is 6-1 vs LV with 20 TD's and 3 INT's.

Carr is 3-12 vs KC with 23 TD's and 16 INT's.

In the previous meeting in week 10, The Chiefs obliterated the Raiders 41-14. Payback time? History says no, but this line seems a bit high for a team whose offense hasn't played well all year sans the earlier game vs LV.

NO @ NYJ +5 (43.5)

First head scratcher of week 14. Why is this line only 5? Taysom Hill will start at QB even though he suffered a Mallet injury to his finger last week. (said injury is called 'Mallet' after Ryan, former QB who couldn't throw the ball worth a shit ... ok, I made that up, but it's a good line) Hill and the Saints should be fine with his injured finger, as long as his legs are good. Look for Hill to run for 80+ yards this week and 2 TD's. How have the Jets won 3 games this year?

SF @ Cin -1 (47.5)

Second head scratcher of week 14. This line should be 3.5. SF coming off a killer loss to the lowly SeahawkS, while Cinci got 'big-played' by the Chargers, who finally allowed their QB to attempt some big plays. 

Jax @ Tenn -9 (44)

I will wait on Getty to provide some sort of reason to bet the Jags.

Shrimp @ Cle -2 (42.5)

The Newsletters 2 favorite teams square off in a battle of ineptness and poor QB play. Shrimp off a demoralizing defeat to their arch rival while suffering another season ending injury to their secondary in the process. Let's be honest, Baltimore's secondary stunk with Humphrey healthy, how much worse can they be without him? Can Baker take advantage? Doubtful. Brownies strength is running the ball. Shrimp strength is stopping the run. Advantage Shrimp. Revenge plays a roll here, as does HFA, both of which favor Cle. I get the sense that the little Punt Returner gains enough yards running the ball, and converts enough 3rd downs with his legs to compensate for his inability to read a defense, to recognize a blitz, and to throw the ball accurately. No decision yet on who to bet, but a bet will be made.

Atl @ Car -3 (42.5)

Panthers just fired their OC supposedly because the HC wanted to run the ball more. Normally I would laugh at the stupidity in that statement, but when you factor in that Cam is your QB I could argue that they should never ever throw the ball. Run it every friggin play. Atl is who we thought they were.

Dal @ Wash -3.5 (48)

Skins on a 4 game win streak after a 4 game losing streak in November. Their D is playing much better, and Heineken is a play maker and gritty AF, kinda like the guy he replaced, just not as smart. WFT controls their destiny. If they win out they win the division. This is a must win for them. Cowboys have some room for error, and host WFT in 2 weeks. Dak is 7-1 against WFT, with the only loss coming on a missed FG attempt after the refs threw a questionable flag backing up the attempt. Boys are as healthy as they have been in a few years. If Dak plays well this won't be close. If Dak plays like he has since his calf injury and WFT is able to control the clock like they've done during their winning streak, than they will win. This line opened at 5, and has been quickly bet down. I felt this line should have been 3 or 3.5 all along, so right where it should be.

Sea @ Hou +7.5 (41.5)

There are a few good games this week. This isn't one of them.

Det @ Den (42)

The no longer win-less Lions are doing very well ATS this year. They play hard every week, just lack enough talent to win. In their last 4 games they tied Pitt, Lost by 3 at Cle, lost by 2 to Chi, and beat Minny. Let's not forget that they also beat the Shrimp for the NFL rule specified 60 mins of regulation play, but the refs, who are forever bestowing gifts upon the Shrimps, allowed this one single game to be 60:02 in length. As for the Fighting Fangio's, Teddy B stinks. After his conquistador act on the pick 6 vs the Eagles, he at least threw a half hearted shoulder during the pick 6 vs the Chiefs. I guess that's progress.

NYG @ LAC -10.5 (44.5)

Gints might be playing Jake Fromm at QB due to a concussion that their 2nd string QB got in last weeks game. They would do just as well to have Jake from State Farm play QB. The 3rd string QB will be coached by the 2nd string OC, and the 2nd string QB Coach because the 1st string guy has Covid. For a team who hasn't scored all year, I suppose all of this could be good news. Chargers finally opened up the offense for Herbert last week, and the receivers finally stopped dropping passes.

Buff @ TB -3.5 (52.5)

Sketchy line #3 of the week. How in the hell is the GOAT only favored by 3.5 over the Bills? If this line was 7 I still wouldn't bet the Buff.

Chi @ GB 12 (43.5)

GB is due for a flat game. Right? Dalton is due to throw the ball to the correct team. Right?

Rams @ Ari -3 (51.5)

Rams getting a lot of love from the line-makers on this one. Haven't looked into the health of Hopkins or Murray, but know they both played last week. Did one of them get re-injured?

Love the Bears this week if this was a noon game........Prime time SNF and I would be an idiot for going against Discount Double Douche 

Good Luck with that...

Misread, thought you were backing the Bears. Smart man. Even if it was at noon, NO

@Hugh_Jorgan

 Fwiw, that Dallas look ahead was 4.5. It ticked up to 5 before  it was taken down when the WFT kicked off.

I like the strong # by the books, it's telling. The skins on a great streak, at home vs division...gonna draw WFT $ imo.

Some time ago in these nfc east matchups, the books would just make the home team -3 and say "go"

Head scratching line move so far is Tennessee from -11 to -9.5. Who the hell sledgehammer bet the totally dysfunctional Jags to cross the 10? I understand those guys bet numbers not teams, but wow. The public won't touch Jax at less than 10. Something's up. Titans off a bye as well.

Jax has actually outscored their opponents in the 4th quarter. Backdoor cover incoming. I'm calling it right now. Jags play their best game of the year and lose by 8. 

There are so many games this week that I don't want to go near, let alone touch. Jags/Titans is one of them.

Jesus (not the savior but a random Mexican) the Jaguars are down to +8.5. 

Almost all of these games suck to some extent, it's very important to find the winners and not the losers. Are you people even listening? Winners not losers = importance 

@Getty3

 I'm calling my solicitor.

@lbcake

 Look at my avatar it's very Mexican. I love those people. The defense rests. 

@Getty3

 My post had to do with #7.  Wanted to know if it was binding. 

Never too early in the thread to sneak in a CBB pick. Northeastern -2 over ZooMass. Remember it's just winners gentlemen. 

@lbcake

 I haven't played it. The Jags are going to have to get through a very difficult time this week. Players doubting coaches, coaches doubting players...nobody seems to be on the same page. Maybe it's a rally round the troops moment for them. I don't know yet.

Just take bowling green and call it an evening 

@Getty3

Notheastern -2 ??? what am i missing? help!! - College Basketball | Covers

@BIGDTITLE

 ML or +1.5?

ML

Recently NE lost to Harvard by 20, UMass beat Harvard by 10 and NE is still the favorite over UMass. You do the math. 

I'll be comatose through all these games. GL gentlemen.

Done. Just winners, gentlemen, just winners. 

Gin and tonic?

Wow that line makes zero sense, are there injuries?