We're In Business - Brier Lines are up

Well, books sure cleaned up on the BC/Quebec game tonight...

Kudos to the Quebec skip, he made two nice shots for the win. I have no idea what BC did early in the 10th end, but it certainly appeared not much, as when TSN switched to the game, the BC team was  not sitting very pretty. That 3 they gave up early in the game, was a killer.

Although I really did think BC would win, when the line moved so much, I probably should have bought a little back on Quebec and guaranteed a profit. Not often a favourite goes from -140 to -277 was it?

On the flipside, Koe's double across the house was a sweet shot, for his three against Sask and completely turned the game around.

Should have two good battles in the morning draw and two potential blow outs. I always say this cautiously, because it is so tough to go undefeated and it seems some of these elite teams always have one bad game. I noticed Stoughton has beaten NWT 7-1 and 9-4 the last couple of times in the Brier, so that may be another pack it in early game.

 

What an epic battle shaping up for tomorrow nights draw. Not so much Alberta/Manitoba, but the classic NWT vs Nova Scotia. Battle of the winless teams..... and make no bones about it, the loser of this baby, may just go 0 for.

 

 

Is that a good thing or a bad thing for the Territories? Check out the percentages on these skips so far.

 

NWT  83-47-38-68-63 total 62%

NS 53-59-71-64 Total 61%

 

Yikes.

This might make for quite a few points? I doubt these teams will blank many ends in this matchup...hell they might even benefit from not throwing skip rocks!

I'm with you Seymour, I will be on the over on that game for sure. On to today.

Updated Total 17-9, +29.05 units,

Ont -2,5 vs PEI, 4.8 units to win 4, under 12.5, 2.16 units to win 2.

Mb -2.5 vs NWT, 2,28 units to win 2, under 12.5, 2.7 units to win 2.5.

NB/NO over 12.5, 4.05 units to win 3. NB to win 1.3 units to win 1.9.

Sask -1.5, vs Que, 1.5 units to win 2.23.

 

Good luck today.

Good morning...with you on Sask and MB.

the juice is really heavy for the Ont -2.5. PEI is at 82% for the tournament as well...I'll lay off that one I think. For some insane reason, I'm thinking of taking PEI but no, just can't do it.

GL today

When I first looked this morning Ontario was -105, by the time I studied the lines and went to play them they were up to -120 and now -225. Getting +189 and 2.5 points with PEI is pretty tempting.

PEI lost by 5 to Alberta, 5 to Manitoba and 4 to Newfoundland. I see zero value at +2.5 regardless of the odds.

Well, PEI beat Stoughton out right at the Brier last year, so upsets can happen. You are correct it probably won't happen, but getting this type of money line in my opinion and the opposition having to beat you by three, will make you money in the long run. Also factoring in for me is that I consider PEI better than NS or Terr. All teams have let down spots in game, there is just some tempting value there if it occurs. I couldn't lay -200 and give three points in the Brier but to each his own. I hope Ontario does win easily, since I am on them.

I don't disagree with what you are saying. The only thing I will comment on is PEI upsetting Manitoba last year. And yes, that did happen. But Manitoba is not Ontario. Would I lay Manitoba -2.5 -200 against PEI? Hell no. But Ontario? Yes. Easy decision.

Draw 11 lines are finally out on Pinnacle... good thing too cause I slept in for the first 2 draws today (damn time difference) and missed out on early action. Might have been a good thing as I avoided that Alberta train wreck loss to the doormats from NS.

On BC +169 for 1 unit vs NO. BC has played all 4 of the "top teams" in the draw so far, losing by only 1 to MB and Ont, beating AB, and losing by only today to Nfld. I'll take that price vs NOnt for this value BC squad.

On Nfld. -290 for 2 units vs NB. Nfld. is an elite team in this event and NB's only 2 wins have come vs NB and YK/NWT on day 1. Also putting 2 units on Nfld. -1.5 at -115 (got it when it first came out, now at -152).

Won't take MB vs AB at the crazy -134 price. This match should be a close one even with MB in better form. AB losing to NS probably gives them this value here at a +115 price.

NS vs YK/NWT should be an easy win for NS but I worry about bad value here (NS -135) as everyone knows now that NS beat AB. However, a steal of 6 like NS had in that game won't happen EVER again in this Brier, and they still only won 13-8. I like the OVER 12.5 better in this spot even if that price is comparable at -133.

Any thoughts Beam and others?

Got on NS UNDER as well for 1 unit at -133 and it's already moved to -150. I like being on the side of a move like that. Took a small play on NS as well at -125.

Not my favourite spot, but couldn't pass up on fading the Territories.

Was on the road today, so could not post. After a slew of overs in this Brier, a first, all four games were under tonight and only one game saw the 9th end.

The pack has been seperated now, with Quebec and N.O challenging the front runners. I suspect that Quebec may falter a little, but the kids from Northern Ontario have some good confidence going.

Some head to head stats for you, Howard is 15-6 all time vs Gushue. They have met in the Brier 5 times and 4 of them have been overs. Stoughton also plays Gushue tomorrow and is 8-6 all time against him. Pretty even. Dropped officially a 1.5 unit today, we will see you in the morning bright and early to get the good lines.

Still came out ahead today but dropped 2 of 3 in the late draw. I took the over in the NS/NWT game. I now know when crappy teams get together they can only score 1 or give up a steal of 1 with the hammer.

Howard is on right now for sure. I think the matchups in the early draw are going to be close.

Early lines up, already on BC and NS.

 

Oh, look at this, they open Ontario as a +130 dog to New Foundland. I see what happened, they mirrored the opening lines of 365, but 365 lines were NF vs N.Ont, as opposed to Ontario.

Ont vs Nfl 10.8 units to win 10.1

Ont/Nfl over 12.5, 4.8 units to win 4.

Bc vs Sask, 2.8 units to win 2.5, also over 12.5, 3.3 units to win 2.5.

Que 1.1 units to win 3.3 units. over 12.5, 2.16 units to win 2.

NS vs PEI, 1.6 units to win 2.1, over 12.5, 3 units to win 2.5.

The high play on Ontario was based on getting them at just over even money. Quebec at +300 was worth it and I consider the PEI game a toss up, so took the value aon NS +127.

I have broken my rule this morning of always playing unders, but see these being tight games, giving us a shot at some overs. I probably went a unit to high on the Ontario over.

Even money on Ontario? For real?

Ang, it opened at +130, but I was so stunned, by the time I logged in, it was down to +103. Again, I think they based it on thinking it was N.O not Ontario.

Added one more play BC -1.5, 1.5 units to win 2.7

Fuckin' BC! This team is costing me as I thought I had them figured out with a couple close losses and a win vs. the top teams, but all they do is lay eggs vs. everyone else. Can anyone explain to me why they conceded down 7-3 with 4 ends to go? Couldn't they have tried to hold Sask to 1 in 7th, score 2 (or more) in 8, then try for a steal in 9? What's with giving up so early and ruining the OVER?

Had 1.5 units on BC to win, and 2 on the over so I'm pretty pissed.

Ontario looking solid thanks to some timely mistakes from Gushue. Have 2 units on Ont and 1 on the Over. Also took a small 1 unit play on Alberta -1.5 so need help on that one coming down the stretch.

Any thoughts on Nfld vs MB coming up next? If I decide that I'm a glutten for punishment I would take BC again vs NWT but I might just save my $.

...and there we go Alberta steals 2 in the 8th. Perhaps Quebec is showing their true colours and slowing down that momentum.

They actually played the 7th but the points weren't counted. I didn't see the game, so my guess is that SSK was sitting like 3 or 4 and BC just shook hands before the end was over which is why it ended 7-3.

Now THAT was a crappy way to lose Alberta -1.5! I guess Koe had no incentive to knock out the red shot rock, and therefore cost me another bet.

I'm gonna need you in this next one Beam!

Still no lines out on Pinnacle... are they getting scared?

Those wusses at Pinnacle didn't put any lines out at all. It kept on showing as "Betting to be available soon"

Good luck to the rest of you if you managed to get action somewhere.