2011 Tim Hortons Brier

Much better afternoon, capped off by the Territories win.

Second time forturnate, this spiel. PEI shook after five ends, which is a no-no. You are required to play 7 ends in the Brier and now they could be up for a fine. It did help us cash our under ticket thankfully. I can't say as I blame them for packing it in. Being down by a 10 spot at the break is not much fun.

 

Have one game, I am ready to unload on, once thelines come out, if they are where I think they will be.

Locked in on the Que/NWT over. I like to bet bad teams, over and Quebec loves to play aggressive, so I feel good about this one. Time will tell.

Can't believe one site opened Martin at -160, that was too short. I can't play Martin as I have a future on Manitoba, but at that price it was a steal.

Based on PEI's performance this afternoon, I took Northern Ontario -3.5. Went over in the NB/NS game medium and a small under in the Mb/Alberta game.

You're right about AB being -160...nailed it hard. Then hedged some off at Pinny at +247. Effectively, I have Alberta to win this at a price of about -103. It's a lot more than I wanted on this game, but at that price I think I will just let it ride.

Very good idea, on playing one line against theother to get Alberta at -103. It looks to me, that they have gotten out of their funk. Everytime I saw a highlight this morning, Simmons was facing a bundle against him.

Hope the totals work out tonight. I like all of your sides, so we will sink or swim together. good luck.

Quebec just made a nice shot for 3 in 6. 8-3 after 6. Anything but the steal of one in 7 and we could be in good shape here.

I think my two biggest bets this week were Martin's two losses. There's a very good chance that Alberta finishes fourth here...

Yes, you have been snakebitten by Martin. Once he fired that shot, without hitting a Stoughton shot giving up the steal, they never seemed to really give him a chance to get back in the game, from what I saw.

One more day to grind it out tomorrow. Was never so happy to see three rocks in the rings, when Quebec threw their last one.

 

Ontario and BC should have some pretty healthy spreads tomorrow, but the other two lines should be interesting.

Btw, I think I've made a bunch following you on those totals. So keep posting! 

Thanks for the kind words Ang. Hopefully we can pull them out for one more day. Awaiting Pinny's lines, but for small plays, I have taken PEI at +265. They are terrible, but perhaps after all the flack they took for quitting early yesterday, maybe they will have a little more into their game today. Besdies, BC has been a disappointment.

Also, I have Sask slightly better than NB, so at +160 also went small on them.

Meaning New Brunswick.

Freakin' Pinnacle.... couldn't get lines this morning but now they have them out already for the afternoon draw! I've been setting my alarm for 6am Pacific just to get up and check out the AM lines so that was particularly frustrating!

I'm on N. Ont -1.5 vs NB, Alberta/NWT Under, and Manitoba -2.5 vs Quebec.

They have been frustrating, missing lines here and there.

I have no problem taking Quebec +3.5 and the over in that game tonight. Also on Ontario and small over in that game.

I suspect that Northern Ontario, will lay down after being eliminated from the playoffs, so I am on Sask.

Finally, on Nova Scotia on the money line and -1.5.

 

good luck everyone.

 

 

So anyone have any thoughts on 1-2 or 3-4 game? Martin sure has Howard's number...Alberta should be a pretty big favorite. No idea what to think about NFLD/MB...

Not sure about the Howard/Martin game yet.  I have a future on Manitoba, so I have no play on the line, but I really do like the under in tonights' agame and have played it at -125.

I will join you on that under. I also hit up Newfoundland at +151. They have last rock and choice of stones. They also beat MB during round robin play. So to me, that number is screaming value. It almost seems like they have it backwards...am I missing something?

Well, good question. I mean Gushue has played well all week and there is big value there. I think though the public trusts Stoughton or perhaps his team a little more and that is why the money is flowing in on the Bisons. I think it is shaing up to be a good game.

I was looking back to the playoffs over the last number of years and there certainly is more overs, than unders. This makes me a little nervous tonight, as I think the last four or five 1-2 games all went over.

I can see why, I think when you are the only game on the ice, you don't want to be timid and make it boring for the fans, so you play a little more aggressive 

I am sticking with the under tonight, I can't believe it is at -161 now, obviously there are a few like me that are on it also. I just feel if Stoughton can get a lead, they hit so well, I can see it as a 7-4, type of game.

As for the 3-4 game tomorrow, I am on the over for this one. It was shaping up last night until the back to back blanks, but I think tomorrow it gets there. As for the side, I am undecided. Really tough to pass up the best team in the world at a low price. Martin though, has not been his dominant self this week and Ontario will have the home crowd behind them. Going to thing about that one.

 

Ang, you are going to tempt fate with Martin one more time eh? Good luck tonight and tomorrow.

Wow some dough came in on Gushue at the end.

Lost our under by an eighth of an inch, if that. Too bad Stoughton couldn't have gotten the first guard on, but that is the way it goes. Too many sloppy shots did us in. Will sit back and take in the extra end now.

Gushue blew it. He should have won it 6-5 or 7-5. 

Nicholls struggled last night, although in the first five ends, I think there were three shots that New Foundland missed, that they had to go to plan B on and ended up very fortunate. Gushue, played very well himself. It was a nice draw to the button, by Stoughton, which sets up well for me, with my future on them, if I need to hedge.

I took a look back at the briers from 07,08,09 and the Olympic trials between Martin and Howard. 7-5,7-6,7-4,5-4,7-5,8-6,7-3. Those are the scores all of them in favour of Martin. History is very much on his side. With 5 of these wins being multiple points, it makes the present -1.5, +154 pretty attractive.

Having said this, Martin has seem spooked by the ice this week a little. He has missed some shots, that typically you never see, yet, they still only lost 2 games. Howard has the home town crowd behind him for what that is worth.

I had three futures going in, on Manitoba big, Ontario medium, and Sask small. As such, I am going to keep my fingers crossed that Ontario can pull out a win and end the slide. If I had no future bet, it would pretty tough not to pull the trigger on Alberta.

The tendancy with these two is the under, but I just have a gut feel this goes over and have played this. Should be a great game. Whoever wins, will probably be a decent size fav tonight versus Gushue.

Apparently history was a much better indication then my gut instinct on that game. Total wasn't even close.

Got Ontario early tonight at -142 and also at -1.5. Now that Martin is out of the way, I think they take down Gushue tonight.

No matter who loses, I will be on the over in the bronze medal game tomorrow and the dog.

Check that, I will probably be against Martin tomorrow, as I don't think he will care about that game one bit.

I too am on Ontario tonight...rather large as well. I think Hart will dominate Nichols at the third position and that should be enough. 

With you Ang, I would love to see NFLD lose tonight, to be on them in the morning.

Closer than I wanted, but I'll take the win.