2011 Tim Hortons Brier

Decided to go on the other two games small over.

Overs now 5-11 in morning draw. 

You are right, I had misread that. Should have paid more attention, as I typically hate moring overs, especially in Men's, yet have still been playing them this week.

Even split in the middle draw today, although I feel a little cheated on the Korea game...... if you had told me they would have 9 points and the over still wouldn't hit, I would have said you had rocks in your head.

On to the final draw, as much as I hate to bet against Canada, getting Sweden at almost even money is too good to pass up. I have also played the under in this game.

I am running with the theory that Scotland's loss to Korea, will deflate them now that they have lost their shot at playoff spot. As such I am on Denmark and the under in this game.

I am on China and Germany both over ( the latter more so due to the +131), nothing big, I have also taken Germany at -1.5. It is pricey, but the Czechs have lost by 9-9-3-7-6 in their last five.

Also went small on China at -2.5.

 

Good luck all.

For what it's worth, the Swe/Can and Sct/Den game are my two biggest under plays of the week. Based on my record, that doesn't speak for much though.

I am on Denmark, Canada (yes, I don't see Sweden finishing with only one loss), and China -2.5.

This tournament is a nightmare. Why did China wait until the 5th end break to start playing? Probably should have gone over and covered the -2.5 if they don't blank the first 3 ends...

I agree, one good one bad, just keeps playing out this way. China is such a tough read at the best of times, they can play so strong, but then have a tendancy to sometimes play down to their competition.

Last round robin day. Starting off with Dogs.

I will probably lose this bet, because they are the worst team in the World's, but from what I have seen of Lank, she hasn't been much better. I will take a stab at the Czechs at +300.

Korea at +2.5 at +177, I will play small.

I thikn Russia and China are a toss up at this point, so to get Russia at +155 is great value, so I am on that.

Based on this weeks trend, I beg you not to read on, because I am a glutton for punishment, but I have bit once again on the over in the States/Czech game, China/Russia game and in the Can/Kor game. All relatively small.

 

Tough one, Czechs down two, with two ends to go and couldn't score in the last couple of ends. Sounds like by reading on line China/Russia game was pretty even and Wang made a nice shot at the end.

Hoping Norberg doesn't take the foot off the gas pedal, now that she is a lock for the one spot. Took Sweden -3.5 and Canada -1.5 vs Germany. Took both Can/Germ and Den/China game under and Nor/Scott over. Totals being played far smaller than usual, due to the tough week. Good luck.

2-3 on last draw. I am glad this miserable round robin is coming to a close.

 

Korea +300, already was on the Swiss -1.5 this morning and Russia.

All four overs, with Korea/Germany the biggest. Good luck.

Wow thank god that is over. Horrible week for me.

I agree Ang. In the last three years, between briers, scotties, worlds and the Olympics, this was the worst week by far. Due for a bad one I guess.

I think the Swiss price was tempting. I don't always trust Ott to make the big shot, but the price was tempting. I went on the over, just because they had a ton of rocks in play the first go around, although that didn't translate to the score board.

Got our over this morning. I have a future on China, but at +120 I also took them small this afternoon. Not a fan of Sweden losing two going into the playoffs. Also, at +130, went on the over small. More of a value play, than anything else. Good luck.

Good call on that over. Couldn't get on it this morning as Pinny took the game OTB early...don't know why...

Crazy value on Denmark to beat Canada. I don't have the guts to play it though.

With ya, too expensive to play Canada, but not interested in the Danes.

 

I do though.... really like the under and put a good lick on it Good luck.

Well, go figure..... an early game that goes over. Just my week.

 

I can't understand how Pinny doesn't have a line out on a semi-final game. The over was going to be my biggest play of the week, so with my luck, perhaps it will be a good thing they posted no line. I went China, as at plus money (got it at +110, opened at +120) with the hammer it was the right side. Time will tell.They are up a couple at the moment.

Okay, the bad B movie ends, with me not being able  to play my biggest bet of the week, since Pinny had no line and it would have been a winner. That was then, this is now.

 

Scotties, Brier, it came in and following it again tomorrow. Dog and Over in the Bronze medal game. The last five bronze medal games have all been over and I see it playing out that way tomorrow. More importantly, to get a home town squad at +140, against a dejected Chinese squad is all the better. I think this is a solid, solid play.

My only concern about the over, is apparently they are having their daylight savings time, so an hour less of sleep, might make them a little dopey in the first couple of ends and go conservative, but I am hitting them both anyways

 

As for the Gold Medal match, tough call. Both skips are so solid, I wonder if this comes down to a battle of the thirds. Haven't made a decision on the total yet. Ang, what ya thinking for tomorrow?

Holland is one cool customer, not sure she should be the favourite, but tough to bet against right now.

I have Sweden at better than +400 to win so I guess I have to hedge. Just have to decide how much...this reminds me a lot of the Brier where Stoughton was a dog despite being the best team all week and having hammer as the 1-2 winner. Sweden was easily the best team all week and if it came down to it, they would not play a horrific extra end as Denmark did today.

Well Ang, let's see if we can pull a few sheckles out tomorrow and get ready for the Men's Worlds. I think Stoughton is going to have a great week.

Well a point away from a nice payday. Would like to know what China needed to do, on their last shot to win. Nonetheless the over cashes easy.

Treading lightly on the final, should be a great game. Holland has played so well down the stretch, I just hope the Schneider girls can play well today. Went on the over, as I think Holland will continue to play aggressive. Should be a good game. Enjoy.

The over in those bronze games are money. 

What a tough loss in the final. If Amber gets her deuce in 6, which was a relatively easy shot, there is no way that game ends up under. The last draw I thought was going to stop in time, to give up three, but just slid a quarter of a rock too far. Feel sorry for Holland, her second killed her in the last end.

Some futures are up today, for our last event the Men's worlds. I got Stoughton at -110. With no Murdoch and home soil, I think he is the class of the field. I see the line has jumped up to -150 now. Only dark horse I might take is Sweden at +1000.