2011 Tim Hortons Brier

Nice job at getting them at that line. Not sure how you can bet them now...

Won't be around much on the weekend, so will post the first draw now.

Took Can/Swiss over, and Canada -2.5. Swiss, did well in the European Championships and had a tendancy to play some higher scoring games, so I will take a stab at it.

Denmark is sending a Seniors squad as their representative. I am sure Pete will have his way with him, but like most Seniors squads, they know they can't win hitting, so I expect rocks in play and took the over.

Lastly, if there is such a thing as "Found Money" in Men's World Curling in the last few years, it would be taking our French man Dufour under. I suspect, we will see most of their games at 12 as the week goes on. I was already sleeping this morning, line opened at -110, went back to bet it and it was at -133. If you look at the last few years, he would be 11 over and 40 under at a 12.5 line. The Czechs play more overs, but if you stay the course and bet France under all week, you should do just fine.

As a couple of small longshots, the Czechs have beaten France before so at +140, I took them and I fully expect to lose this bet, but at +220, I put a little on the wily veterans from Denmark.

Only futures are Stoughton at -110 and Sweden is at +1100 on one site, which i am on, but bet down to 770 on another.

France under looked good early but collapsed late.
Not a good opening draw.

Draw 2, Canada -3.5, Scotland and Korea, why not at +190 against France.

Swe/Scot un, Kor/Fra under and Germ/China over.

Good luck.

Lost some yesterday, made some back today, with the biggest hit being the Norway loss this morning to the Czechs.

Night draw, until Norway can shake their funk no reason, not to get the Germans at +275. Also went on the Czechs at +150, and Scotland at -140.

Totals on China/Czech over big. Scott/Swiss medium and Germany/Norway over small. Initital USA/Sweden lean on the line is under, but I will see if it gets bet up first.

If you can stomach the juice based on 11.5 lines which they are throwing up right now, here is how the totals would have played out the last few years.

2010 38-28

2009 39-27

2008 40-26

 

 

Totals, came in with all four games going over. Also, Germany and Czech both won, Germany barely hanging on after building a big lead, to give us a couple of nice dog wins.

This morning, they have bumped up the totals to 12.5, so on my France under and also the Germany/Scotland under.

Nipped on the unders by one this morning. On Scot/Czech and China/Swiss over both big. On Sweden, Czechs and the States all smaller.

Well, nothing like a dose of reality, when you get swept. No sense whining about it.

Tonight I am on the Korea/Czech over, in my largest total to date. My next two plays both big are Norway -1.5 as he just owns Dufour and Denmark/Swiss over.

I will see you possibly on the weekend, but for the week I am going to pack it in, as far as posting goes. I post in the hopes of helping those that may have some action on curling and although it has been a profitable year, thanks to a great Brier, I am not having the success on the worlds, due to lack of time to watch and also the fact when Canada doesn't play there is zero coverage...... which is betting blind. If I can't be helpful, then there is no sense posting.

So, thanks to my mate Ang, for his comradery over the last six weeks and I am going to sit back tonight and see if these babies cash and root for Butler hard.

Good luck.

 

Yeah, I don't blame you for packing it in. My heart hasn't been in this at all...so hard to get a handle on some of these teams. I think next year I may just stick to Scotties & Brier. I think the lines are sharper for the worlds...

Ang, one last one Korea at +200 is a good play.

 

I have to make one quick comment. Korea and Denmark have been over machines this week (made this afternoons play the easiest total to date) and both lines open at 11.5, meanwhile, the only game they open with a 12.5 line is China, who have been an under machine. Well, if it is a trap, I have fell for it hard.

On Czech/Den over big and protected it by taking Czechs -1.5. Also on Can/Nor over and Swiss/South Korea over to. All pretty good size plays.

Norway -1.5 vs France in the playoff. France has had a good run, but now that Ulsurd is off the mat and playing better, I expect him to win today.

Wow, what a result to the Czech/Den game. How do you blank 10 in a 6-5 game...

I was sitting at my computer last night watching the scorecast, and I thought my eyes were deceiving me, when I saw that score. One point either way and I have a winner. I can only assume the Czech skip hit and rolled out.

Had Norway on the money line, but also had them at -1.5, so lost a little today. Went on the over tonight, as the first game although 7-3, had some pretty aggressive play in it.

Over was never close, then maybe had an outside shot if Stoughton makes the run back for three in six, but it didn't occur and so be it.

Here is some quick math for you. The last five worlds and  2010 olympics  have produced the following totals.

11 points or under........ 19

12 points on the nose....... 5

13 points or over.......5

A big difference between the women and the men is the ability to make runbacks, which was the case tonight. This leads to less big ends and more unders. Good to know for the rest of the weekend.

 

I like Norway to beat Sweden. Stoughton could really regret losing that last game as I think they are the scariest team of those that are left.

There is a lot of people thinking like you Ang, as Norway has been getting a lot of action. I already have a Sweden Future, so I am staying away from the line. I bought the under at -115, more so on the history of playoff games going under, but when I look at the top 5 teams this week, Swedens games were all over versus them. As it is now at +134, I bought back the bet on the over, so at the end of the day have a small play on the over.

Whoever wins this game, I will be betting beats Scotland.

Interesting call by Norway in 9, to go for the steal or force Scotland to one by the draw. Didn't work out so well for him. Although if Scotland's  draw doesn't kiss the Norway stone in 10, I am sure they lose the game. At the end of the day if I am Canada, I would still rather be playing Scotland than Norway.

Bronze medal match, I admit I didn't see any of the game yesterday, but I have to suspect, Sweden will be more up for this game than Norway. It's 5-1 this year, so I will stick with the Dog and the Over.

As for the Night game, I was hoping there would be a reasonable figure at -1.5, but it is only at -2.5. Still I will stick with Canada and play it. As for the total, no feel on it.

Good luck.

 

Wow Canada -650. Crazy...