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Week 5: 4 team 13 point teaser teaser thread (4-0 +5.5 units)

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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by NEO - THE ONE:

Oakland is my homer team, that's why curious


what the number for OAK?
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by NEO - THE ONE:

looks like 13 is better than 10,
those 3 teams would only be 2-2 if you had done 3 teamer , 10pt


I actually think that the 3 team 13 teamer has less mathmatically chance of hitting and you notice books adjust the odds at -110 instead of what we play at with then -120 for 4 team 13 point teasers...

they have crunched the numbers and know
 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by SiuLungBao:

i really like falcons, saints pick

surely chargers will win but that -6 doesnt look too appealing to me at all....

cowboys...to bounce back with vikings

vikings / jets are too hard to pick

too much media w/ randy moss going to vikings....scary game

game of old farts vs young QB and a nice defense
''

I like ATL in this spot also I am probably going to add them to the list...

agree with you on the MIN@NYJ game in terms of hype and unpredictability...
 
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Posted: #79

what the number for OAK?

                                                                2010       2009      200

win percentage +13

                87.18%   SD        34-5    2-2       16-1     18-2

                  69.44     OAK    25-11  3-1       11-5     11-5

               

 
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Posted: #80

opponents +13 win % playing these teams

                    80.55% OAK   29-7    4-0       13-3     12-4

                   72.22%   SD      26-10  2-2       12-4    12-4

 
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Posted: #81
Oakland doesn't cover +13 enough
and SD opponents don't cover +13 enough

SD covers +13 GREAT , except this year is ????
OAkland Opponents are 4-0 this year , OK last year, not great 2008

so , SD is the satistical play, Oakland is the HOMER play

I wouldn't do either
 
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Posted: #82
wow.....really like the break down of the %%%
would u mind sharing what is your 4 team 13pt teaser
mines are :
Ind +6
Min +10
Min ov28
G-men +16
 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by NEO - THE ONE:

Oakland doesn't cover +13 enough
and SD opponents don't cover +13 enough

SD covers +13 GREAT , except this year is ????
OAkland Opponents are 4-0 this year , OK last year, not great 2008

so , SD is the satistical play, Oakland is the HOMER play

I wouldn't do either


NEO

nice numbers

OAK is a no play for me until we talk about it being otherwise...

 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by ynotzepol10:

This are my picks 13 point teaser:1)COLTS+4
                                                 2)PANTHERS+14
                                                 3)RAVENS+6
                                                 4)49ERS+10
Those are my best bets!!!!!!


Good luck on CAR, I think 14 is not the greatest number, but lets hope that you are on the right side...
 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by LostnFound:

wow.....really like the break down of the %%%
would u mind sharing what is your 4 team 13pt teaser
mines are :
Ind +6
Min +10
Min ov28
G-men +16


MIN +10? I think you can get better then that on a 13 point ATS line
 
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Posted: #86
This is not my final teaser, but this is what I am thinking about right now...

SD +6.5 (+6 on 5 dimes)
DAL +7
SF +9.5
ATL +10 (+10.5 on 5 dimes)

what you do guys think?  is there a loser in those picks?

any more ideas or suggestions?

 
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Posted: #87

INDY +3 (not a very popular pk here)

Saints +5 (better team should win)

DAL +5 (coming off bye, at home, etc)

MINN +16 (huge value here. Favre and Moss with 16? No brainer)

 
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Posted: #88
HI DL, Everyone,  I am posting the final +13ATS data (-4 bye teams) !!!

VERY INTERESTING STUFF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Use how you like, take it with a grain of salt.  I will most likely keep track over this season, so stay tuned.

OBSERVATIONS:
1)  FADE DETROIT / JAX / WAS / CLEV in 13 pt teasers
2) TEASE ATL / BAL / NYJ / NO / GB / PHI / MINN @HOME
3) keep an eye on INDI/SF/SF/CAR/Hous
4) DON'T TEASE:  DEN/NYG/OAK/BUF/ARIZ
5) DON'T TEASE opponents of:  NYJ/MIN/SD/TEN/PHI/BALT/NO

FIRST TABLE IS W-L 2008 - 2010 regular season and playoffs
+13 versus the spread, ties LOSE.

SECOND TABLE is W-L 2008-2010 regular season and playoffs
+13 versus the spread of THE OPPONENTS of the listed teams.

ENJOY!!!
NEO

 
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Posted: #89
Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4

F*CK! Won't let me paste thes dang things, ARGGGG!

If I can't the ABOVE OBSERVATIONS are good starting places

 
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Posted: #90
LET's TRy

TOP 4 TEAMS TO TEASE

TEAM                W-L     2010    2009    2008

 

97.29%   ATL     36-1    4-0       15-1     17-0

90.00%   BAL     36-4    4-0       15-2     17-2

89.75%   NYJ      35-4   4-0       19-0     12-4  

89.74%   NO       35-4   4-0       17-2     14-2


 
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Posted: #91
TOP 4 teams to FADE

TEASE THE OPPONENTS OF THESE TEAMS:

Opponents          W-L     2010    2009    2008

 

100 %    DET      36-0     4-0       16-0     16-0

94.44%   JAX     34-2     4-0       15-1     15-1

94.44%   WAS    34-2    4-0       14-2     16-0

91.66%            CLE      33-3    4-0       15-1     14-2
 
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Posted: #92
DON'T TEASE (unless an excellent situation)

75.00%   ARZ      30-10  2-2       13-5     15-3

75.00%   JAX     27-9    2-2       11-5     14-2

72.22%   WAS    26-10  3-1       14-2     9-7

72.00%   TB        18-7    2-1       12-4     14-2

69.44%   STL     25-11   4-0       10-6    11-5

69.44%   BUF     25-11  2-2       11-5     12-4

69.44      OAK   25-11  3-1       11-5     11-5

66.66%   NYG    24-12  2-2       10-6     12-4

63.88%   DEN    23-13  4-0       10-6     9-7


 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by NEO - THE ONE:

HI DL, Everyone,  I am posting the final +13ATS data (-4 bye teams) !!!

VERY INTERESTING STUFF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Use how you like, take it with a grain of salt.  I will most likely keep track over this season, so stay tuned.

OBSERVATIONS:
1)  FADE DETROIT / JAX / WAS / CLEV in 13 pt teasers
2) TEASE ATL / BAL / NYJ / NO / GB / PHI / MINN @HOME
3) keep an eye on INDI/SF/SF/CAR/Hous
4) DON'T TEASE:  DEN/NYG/OAK/BUF/ARIZ
5) DON'T TEASE opponents of:  NYJ/MIN/SD/TEN/PHI/BALT/NO

FIRST TABLE IS W-L 2008 - 2010 regular season and playoffs
+13 versus the spread, ties LOSE.

SECOND TABLE is W-L 2008-2010 regular season and playoffs
+13 versus the spread of THE OPPONENTS of the listed teams.

ENJOY!!!
NEO



Awesome stuff NEO...

great job

DAL is scarier now because of the dont tease against TEN trend...

but SF, SD and ATL look solid.. and as your numbers indicated ATL seems like the most solid call...

MIN on the road vs NYJ is a definitely a no play now...
 
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Posted: #94
DON'T TEASE the OPPONENTS OF THESE TEAMS:

Opponents          W-L     2010    2009    2008


76.31%   NO       29-9   4-0        12-6    13-3

73.17%   BAL     30-11  4-0       13-5     13-6

72.50%   PHI      29-11   3-1       13-4     13-6

72.22%   TEN     26-10  2-2       13-3     11-5

72.22%   SD       26-10 2-2       12-4     12-4

71.79%   MIN     28-11  3-0      11-7     14-3  

69.23%   NYJ      27-12  2-2       14-5     11-5


 
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Posted: #95
 MIDDLE section of the TEAM STATS:
AFTer NO, Before ARIZONa

Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4

89.19%   GB        33-4    4-0       14-3     15-1

88.88%   SF        32-4    2-2       15-1     15-1  

88.88%   PHI      32-4     4-0       13-3     15-1

87.80%   SD       36-5    2-2       16-1     18-2

86.11%  CAR     31-5     4-0       14-2     13-3

86.00%   IND      31-5    4-0      13-3      14-2

84.21%   MIN * 32-6   3-0       14-4     15-2  

83.33%   HOU    30-6    3-1       15-1     12-4

 
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Posted: #96
Part 2 middle section:

83.33 %  CHI     30-6     4-0       12-4     14-2

82.85%   TEN     29-6    3-1     12-4      14-2

80.55%   CLE      29-7    4-0       13-3     12-4

80.00%   DAL     28-7   2-1      14-2      12-4    

77.77%   CIN      28-8    4-0       13-3     11-5

77.14%   .KC      27-8    3-0       13-3     11-5

         75.00%    DET      27-9    4-0       14-2     9-7     
 
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Posted: #97
Once again, amazing data NEO...

+13 points ATS is a while different beast that you seem to understand in a way like no other...

I appreciate your effort and I hope that we all make money from this...

I feel decent about all of the plays except DAL now... which means that I am likely going to abandon the idea of the 2 team 6 point teaser...  I think with the ATL and SF play, and getting DAL and SD getting more then a FG is a decent situation...

STL looks interesting with that 36-0 fade trend tho against DET...
 
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Posted: #98
(sorry, thought you guys might want it all)
middle part of the OPPONENTS OF THESE TEAMS TABLE:

88.88%  STL      32-4     2-2       16-0     14-2

86.48%  CAR     32-5     4-0       14-2     14-3

86.48%   CIN      32-5    4-0       14-3     14-2

86.48%   DAL     32-5    2-1       15-3     15-1

85.71%   KC       30-5    3-0      13-3     14-2

85.71%  CHI      30-5     3-1       14-2     13-3

85.71%   TB       30-5     2-1       13-3     15-1

83.78%   NYG    31-6     4-0       13-3     14-3

83.33%   BUF     30-6    4-0       13-3     13-3

83.33%            HOU    30-6    4-0       12-4     14-2
 
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Posted: #99
Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4

82.05%   IND     32-7     3-1       15-3     14-3

80.55%   OAK   29-7    4-0       13-3     12-4

80.55%   SF        29-7     4-0       12-4     13-3

78.37%   ATL     29-8    3-1       14-2     12-5

78.37%   GB        29-8    3-1       13-4     13-3

77.77%   DEN    23-13  3-1       11-5     14-2

76.31%   ARZ      29-9   4-0       11-5     14-4


PHEW

 
 
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Posted: #100
DET is also 4-0 this years + 13 points ATS
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