Week 5: 4 team 13 point teaser teaser thread (4-0 +5.5 units)

Great job everyone...

It was scary with the money line plays, but the bet is a betting on a good team to pull out a win which happened in both games...

But I think this is where numbers were key as if you got -2 ot r -3 you might have lost...

I hope however that this thread made you money and I hope that you join me this week in working on a teaser...

This week however I have to admit that at first look I am not too excited about this week.... some weeks are better the others for the 4 team 13 point teaser so this is not a 2 unit week...

DAL +6
I really like DAL at home coming off of a bye to win SU... Covering the numbers 3-5 seems like a decent use of the +13 points ATS although I would of course prefer 7...  DAL probably took this bye more seriously and I am thinking with an easier schedule, you will see a few game run from them....

DAL is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games after a bye...

Any more ideas or suggestions?

Den/Balt Over

Jets/Min Over

San/Oak Over - Lock

quick look at this week i feel same way about this week ...
so far i have in mind .......

cle +16
kc +21.5

y you ask ... clev shone they play tight against teams keeping within a 1 score game and atl not playing well they could've been easily 1-3. as for kc a 4-0 team what a shock but they have beat gb and sd keeping them at low scoring game i don't like goin against indy i think they probably will win SU i see kc to cover 3 scores in my mind.

some leans for now still deciding are
jax+12
hou+10
sf+10

jax i see them them winning straihght up on the road. hou i see them winning as well due to gmen jus can't score in the redzone. sf a must win game at home with a stout defense while philly has injuries to qb vick and rb mccoy  i dont too much threat in the run or the long ball

jus my 2cents so far let me know what u all think especially you dl36 i respect your views on this thread

i actually like the den/balt under they these teams play each other tight

dl - nice hit on your teaser

Was right on all my options but 2 (wrong on NO over & the Philly over by 1), but the Wash over cost me 2 teasers by a point when Vick went out. It happens & is partly why teasers can be perilous, but you can't cap ingame injuries.

Early on, leaning to a few dogs & GB as a fave for 13 ptrs as well as few o/u's but will have to dig deeper as the wk goes on. Lean to Indy/KC either way. Right now, interested in these:

Buff +14 (not sure here, would like to get another half pt)

Wash +15.5, Rams +16, Carolina +14.5, TB +19.5, GB +10, Indy +4, KC +22, NYG +16, Indy over 31, GB over 31, Stl/Det over 30, Chi/Car under 49, Hou/NYG over 34.5, Den/Balty over 25.5, Atl/Cleve over 28

GLA!

that's GB +10.5 & really like that over -

Broncos +20
Packers +11.5
Titans +11.5

and looking deciding on..

Saints +5.5
Chargers +5.5
Vikings +16.5

Any thoughts?

I meant Titans +19.5

Thanks for the suggestions but I do not play totals...

also in the NFL NOTHING is a lock...

I totally agree, bad word. if you shave 7 points off all those totals they look really good. 13 pts off certain totals in a teaser is money my man

Im a big 7pt 7-10 team teaser taker and I hit often on Over/Unders. I only throw in one or two but adding or taking away a touchdown can make all the difference.

Love to pepper in more underdogs in 13 pointers too

CLE +16 seems like dejavu, which in gambling is usually a bad sign...  With that said your reasoning about it being a lower scoring game is solid logic on this play...

CLE is also 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games in October...

KC +21.5 is a great number and really a decent spot coming off of a bye...

You dont know how many times I have seen the words "Peyton manning, nuff said or "I cant see peyton losing this one" and then having them lose...
 
IND has injuries at its RB position which is not only about running the ball, but pass blocking and familiarity...

This game spells over and higher scoring to me because of IND's known problems on defense..

KC has gone over in 6 of its last 7 games after a  bye...

GL on your other picks, I gotta admit at first glance, I am not feeling them... but the week is early and I might come back to them later...

teasers are called teasers becasue they all look good... but it would be interesting to see if totals vary by more then 6-7 points typically and you might really be more worth it parlaying...

the numbers historically is that totals +13 points ATS hit about 84-85% if you were just to pick randomly... so this is a fair bet...  I dont have numbers on 6-7 point teasers, but it would be interesting to see if they are really mathematically worth it...

I'll stick with the majority here and say I wasn't too excited at first glance either, but still a couple that stick out:

KC +21.5

Tenn +19.5

GB +10.5

NYJ +9

Another would be Atlanta at +10.....While the Browns could upset again, I just can't see them beating Atlanta by 10 or more...but then again this is the NFL.

BUF is a play that I am not sure of because the variability in their ability the score and defend...

you are doing good at looking at spreads +13 points ATS which takes practice..

to me if you see a game being higher scoring and going over, then you lose value on the +13 points ATS...

seems kinda of counter-intuitive to be attracted to a game that has higher scoring potential...

+10.5 is nice when you are thinking that less then 25 points might be scored in the game

explain to me your thinking behind those picks?  is it based on the situation?  match ups? numbers?

This week has alot of 3s and 7s which end up with poor numbers +13 points ATS...

This is a tough dilemma for me because in the past I would scrap the 4 team 13 point teaser, but I have tried to commit to working on one every week...

But I am stuck on an idea of a 2 team 6 point teaser at -110 odds...

DAL -1

5-0 ATS after bye in last 5 seasons

SD -1

SD has won 13 SU games vs OAK in a row
SD is 7-1 ATS at OAK in the last 8 seasons

I will still consider a 4 team 13 point teaser by adding two more picks to my DAL and SD ideas...  But then in the end I will not be playing both teasers and will pick one or the other...

Any more ideas or suggestions?

for a 13 pt teaser:

 

STL +16 and WAS +15.5.

giving both teams 2+ touchdowns against "suspect" defenses...

 

i'd also suggest Cardinals +19.5, as the saints havent beaten anybody by more than 6.

dl - agree with you about Buff for the same reason. Actually like GB +10.5 as 1 of my best teaser options this week, even better than the over which should hit as well. Hear you on your thinking there, but it's 1 of the last things I would look at or weigh very heavily when considering a 13pt option. Wash has a fairly solid run D, but is miserable vs the pass & they get little pressure on the QB. Doesn't bode well for 'em against Rodgers especially when they're likely to be without Portis to help control some clock - even at home.

Yeah, the GB D is suspect & gives up alot of yds (which is why I like the over), but they'll get some decent pressure/sacks on McNabb & can't see the 'Skins by more 3-6 as a best case scenario for Wash. Of course, anything can happen but you can only go with what you think/feel are the best probabilities -

Know you don't play totals, but another over I like better than can be brought down to 31 give or take is Indy/KC. KC has a decent run D, but is bad vs the pass & PM at home after a loss is likely to pick 'em apart & put up big #'s while KC should have good success on the ground vs the Indy run D even more depleted with the loss of Sander's backup. Keep it rollin & GL again this week 

what happened to my thread?

WTF?

mods, can we get this spamming deleted from my thread?

This looks like the work on GBP....  the stalking, the spamming, the alias that was registered in the past suddenly becomes way overactive....

all adds up...

Thanks mods...

mathematically there is no advantage to teasing dogs vs favs + 13points ATS...

Jets +9 is absolutely solid - Revis should be back as well. I was leaning Titans + the big number earlier this week, but am starting to have second thoughts. BOL.

49ers +10 vs Eagles
Lions +10 vs Rams
Panthers +15.5 vs Bears
Vikes +17 vs Jets