Week 5: 4 team 13 point teaser teaser thread (4-0 +5.5 units)

Quote Originally Posted by Crush:

Jets +9 is absolutely solid - Revis should be back as well. I was leaning Titans + the big number earlier this week, but am starting to have second thoughts. BOL.

Quote Originally Posted by newkid:

49ers +10 vs Eagles
Lions +10 vs Rams
Panthers +15.5 vs Bears
Vikes +17 vs Jets

Quote Originally Posted by NEO - THE ONE:

70% chance statistically of hitting,  based on last 10 games played by all teams involved , vs ATS record of each team.


KC+21
Denv +20
Tenn +19.5
MInn +17

Quote Originally Posted by NEO - THE ONE:

DL6 -

I have played teasers over the years, but have been intrigued by your threads and open forum information gathering etc....  
And especially that look for ONE teaser and only one, very smart

I'll tell you how I got the number but it in no way has tracking/history looking at it this way . You might decide to use it and track and see if it has any validity over a season.

Although looking at it again the percentage looks more like 65.6 %

I looked at the last 10 games played by all the above teams and their opponants this week (includes this preseason, and last years playoffs) as shown in the matchups link here at covers.

KC has covered +21            10-0      
Colts have not covered - 21    9-1     so 90% last 10 games

Denver has covered +20       9-0-1 
Ravens have not covered -20   0-9-1   so 100% last 10 games

Tenn has covered +19.5      9-1   
Dallas has not covered -19.5   1-9-1     so 81%   ( .9 * .9)

Minn has covered  +17     10-0
Jets have not covered -17  1-9        so 90 % last 10 games      

Therefor:

.9 x 1 x .81  x .9   =  .656  or 65.6 %

(note: a push has to push NOT lose in the teaser, if I had time I would check it all for .5 points less in case the teaser you get has TIES LOSE)

so i guess, statistically,  I feel, based on last 10 games by these 8 teams,
there is a 65% chance that teaser should win.

Opinions / Feedback ???


as a followup, HAD I APPLIED THIS to my teaser last week , lost with Lame ass Seattle +11.5 dying at RAMS.

i would have noticed Rams / Seattle would have been TERRIBLE last 10 games!!

Seattle has covered +11.5       7-3       70%
Rams  have not covered -11.5   9-1       90 %

.9 x .7   =   63%  

Fricken Seattle + 11.5 only had a 63% chance to cover,
SO SHOULD NOT HAVE BEEN IN MY TEASER!

Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:

Here is a nice 3Team 10 pt Teaser

Indy +2 / Detroit +7 / SFran +7  10 unit play

 

Quote Originally Posted by NEO - THE ONE:

DL36,
"but I wonder if your numbers being based on the past 10 games is a reliable system..."

Certainly not a system or reliable yet, Not even how I have ever done teasers. I tended (past tense, no more)  to not look at stats and just cap games like a degenerate yahoo weekend warrior and pick my 4 teams, sometime 2-3 teaser, 2 teamer, 3 teamers, blah blah.  PLUS I tended toward FAVORITES only. PLUS i played 2-4 per week. Plus I sometimes chased

I would use the data to look at what team not to play becasue of poor performance +13 points ATS rather then looking at what to play based on good numbers

Fair enough , except I think a play based on good numbers is valid as well, and your also right about noticing special cercumstances in the data.

TAKE NEW ORLEANS +6.5 this week

discounting the 3 games they rested and lost at the end of last season.

They are 4-0  at +6.5 this year
              4-0  preseason  2010
             16-0  2009   (not counting the 0-3 rested games)
                       (well, it was a magical year as well)
              4-0 preseason 2009
              14-2  2008   (both away!!!! NOT AT HOME)
              4-0   PRESEASON 2008
             
       (     13-8  2007 SEASON , but that was THEN)

SO New Orleans hasn't lost a game at home in 2 1/3 years by more than 6.5   .  Add to that , most would LIKE -6.5 anyway as a flat bet , so I feel the stats justify a teaser here
            

Quote Originally Posted by NEO - THE ONE:

QUICK ATS/STAT FINDING NOTE FOR EVERYONE.

If you click a TEAM in the scores section. 
Look at the bottom right of the schedule/results TABLE
you will see a LINK that says PAST RESULTS

DATA since 1985!!!!!!!!

NEO

Quote Originally Posted by clemezl:

Colts +6
GB + 6.5

Quote Originally Posted by cherokee10:

dl,

Take a look at Atlanta +10....yes they're playing in Cleveland, just off a big win over Cincy, but even if Matty Ry and Co. lose this game (being from Ohio, and Browns fan....I highly doubt) it WILL NOT be by more than 10....Line is low due to the Falcons scary last week and Browns upset over Bengals, do not be fooled.