you know , as i'm researching stats , something has popped to mind.
I was checking if teams have ever LOST etc.. 13pt teaser based on THIS WEEKS LINE. But now I think I also need to look at what would have happened with +13 BASED on the line of each game at the time.
will play around this weekend with stats and share what I see
NEO
Hey DL36,
you know , as i'm researching stats , something has popped to mind.
I was checking if teams have ever LOST etc.. 13pt teaser based on THIS WEEKS LINE. But now I think I also need to look at what would have happened with +13 BASED on the line of each game at the time.
will play around this weekend with stats and share what I see
I DON'T THINK YOU SHOULD CHANGE A THING YOUR DOING, AS IT IS SUCCEEDING MORE THAN ANYTHING I'VE DONE.
I just like to dissect stats and play with numbers so maybe I can find a few gem tidbits of INFO. But I'm not sure past results have too much bearing on THIS WEEKS BOARD etc....
PS: sorry to CLOG YOUR THREAD, apologies to ALL.
I DON'T THINK YOU SHOULD CHANGE A THING YOUR DOING, AS IT IS SUCCEEDING MORE THAN ANYTHING I'VE DONE.
I just like to dissect stats and play with numbers so maybe I can find a few gem tidbits of INFO. But I'm not sure past results have too much bearing on THIS WEEKS BOARD etc....
I DON'T THINK YOU SHOULD CHANGE A THING YOUR DOING, AS IT IS SUCCEEDING MORE THAN ANYTHING I'VE DONE.
I just like to dissect stats and play with numbers so maybe I can find a few gem tidbits of INFO. But I'm not sure past results have too much bearing on THIS WEEKS BOARD etc....
Dont worry about clogging thread... all good last week's thread was like 6 pages...
if you like stats crunch these numbers please...
if you were to look at every game +13 points ATS this year, what is the percentage of winners vs. losers...
this is a overall average that at least gives us a barometer of what the climate is for teasers so far this season...
Doesnt matter what spreads you use as long as it is from a consistent source...
we can look at angles like favs/dogs, home/away etc later... but this barometer is key to starting to compare stats +13 points ATS...
NEO are you willing to accept your mission?
Quote Originally Posted by NEO - THE ONE:
PS: sorry to CLOG YOUR THREAD, apologies to ALL.
I DON'T THINK YOU SHOULD CHANGE A THING YOUR DOING, AS IT IS SUCCEEDING MORE THAN ANYTHING I'VE DONE.
I just like to dissect stats and play with numbers so maybe I can find a few gem tidbits of INFO. But I'm not sure past results have too much bearing on THIS WEEKS BOARD etc....
Dont worry about clogging thread... all good last week's thread was like 6 pages...
if you like stats crunch these numbers please...
if you were to look at every game +13 points ATS this year, what is the percentage of winners vs. losers...
this is a overall average that at least gives us a barometer of what the climate is for teasers so far this season...
Doesnt matter what spreads you use as long as it is from a consistent source...
we can look at angles like favs/dogs, home/away etc later... but this barometer is key to starting to compare stats +13 points ATS...
too much to do favs/dogs , home / away right now if ever
I'm crunching this year , preseason, and last 2 years for all teams
we can analyze those and then maybe micro-analyze some for home/way , favs dog
Preliminary analysis ( 8 teams, see below) 2010 so far , and 2009/2008 seasons Teams average 12-4 ATS getting 13 points added to their spread
total for the above 8 teams, getting +13 is 223 wins / 60 losses or 79% .
so means preliminarily, in NFL, on any given day, a team statistically has a 79% chance of covering a +13 teaser. That's not good when you need 4 of those to hit
THIS YEAR: those 8 teams are 18-7 ATS getting+13 That's terrible.
SO , you are having a BANNER year with your final TEASER each week winning
Looked at Jax/Buf/Dal/tenn/Buf/Tb/Cinc/INdy so far
Best TEAM so far:
INDY is 31-5 ATS getting +13 at prevailing odds of the day since 2008 regular season and playoffs (86%)
INDY is 10-0 ATS VS KC last 10 games played getting +6 teaser and are 9-1 ATS vs KC last 10 games at prevailing odds +13
Still, statistically finding four teams with teaser stats like INDYs 86 % only nets a 55% win probability for 4 teams
too much to do favs/dogs , home / away right now if ever
I'm crunching this year , preseason, and last 2 years for all teams
we can analyze those and then maybe micro-analyze some for home/way , favs dog
Preliminary analysis ( 8 teams, see below) 2010 so far , and 2009/2008 seasons Teams average 12-4 ATS getting 13 points added to their spread
total for the above 8 teams, getting +13 is 223 wins / 60 losses or 79% .
so means preliminarily, in NFL, on any given day, a team statistically has a 79% chance of covering a +13 teaser. That's not good when you need 4 of those to hit
THIS YEAR: those 8 teams are 18-7 ATS getting+13 That's terrible.
SO , you are having a BANNER year with your final TEASER each week winning
Looked at Jax/Buf/Dal/tenn/Buf/Tb/Cinc/INdy so far
Best TEAM so far:
INDY is 31-5 ATS getting +13 at prevailing odds of the day since 2008 regular season and playoffs (86%)
INDY is 10-0 ATS VS KC last 10 games played getting +6 teaser and are 9-1 ATS vs KC last 10 games at prevailing odds +13
Still, statistically finding four teams with teaser stats like INDYs 86 % only nets a 55% win probability for 4 teams
SInce you take your time, consider many angles, find your 1 or 2 solid picks, ruminate, get advice/input, and finally , a bit before kickoff, pull the trigger on your 4 best plays, I think that may be the BEST way anyway, regardless of stats.
But stats may make you feel BETTER about something that you already like or make you back off something that isn't feeling great etc...
NEO
SInce you take your time, consider many angles, find your 1 or 2 solid picks, ruminate, get advice/input, and finally , a bit before kickoff, pull the trigger on your 4 best plays, I think that may be the BEST way anyway, regardless of stats.
But stats may make you feel BETTER about something that you already like or make you back off something that isn't feeling great etc...
too much to do favs/dogs , home / away right now if ever
I'm crunching this year , preseason, and last 2 years for all teams
we can analyze those and then maybe micro-analyze some for home/way , favs dog
Preliminary analysis ( 8 teams, see below) 2010 so far , and 2009/2008 seasons Teams average 12-4 ATS getting 13 points added to their spread
total for the above 8 teams, getting +13 is 223 wins / 60 losses or 79% .
so means preliminarily, in NFL, on any given day, a team statistically has a 79% chance of covering a +13 teaser. That's not good when you need 4 of those to hit
THIS YEAR: those 8 teams are 18-7 ATS getting+13 That's terrible.
SO , you are having a BANNER year with your final TEASER each week winning
Looked at Jax/Buf/Dal/tenn/Buf/Tb/Cinc/INdy so far
Best TEAM so far:
INDY is 31-5 ATS getting +13 at prevailing odds of the day since 2008 regular season and playoffs (86%)
INDY is 10-0 ATS VS KC last 10 games played getting +6 teaser and are 9-1 ATS vs KC last 10 games at prevailing odds +13
Still, statistically finding four teams with teaser stats like INDYs 86 % only nets a 55% win probability for 4 teams
NEO great stuff...
84-85% is what we are looking for and 79% is not good...
38.95% chance of 4 team 13 point teasers hitting if chosen randomly...
IND is a nice stat, I would be interested in NO also as teams with decent passing offenses can stay competitive when behind...
Quote Originally Posted by NEO - THE ONE:
too much to do favs/dogs , home / away right now if ever
I'm crunching this year , preseason, and last 2 years for all teams
we can analyze those and then maybe micro-analyze some for home/way , favs dog
Preliminary analysis ( 8 teams, see below) 2010 so far , and 2009/2008 seasons Teams average 12-4 ATS getting 13 points added to their spread
total for the above 8 teams, getting +13 is 223 wins / 60 losses or 79% .
so means preliminarily, in NFL, on any given day, a team statistically has a 79% chance of covering a +13 teaser. That's not good when you need 4 of those to hit
THIS YEAR: those 8 teams are 18-7 ATS getting+13 That's terrible.
SO , you are having a BANNER year with your final TEASER each week winning
Looked at Jax/Buf/Dal/tenn/Buf/Tb/Cinc/INdy so far
Best TEAM so far:
INDY is 31-5 ATS getting +13 at prevailing odds of the day since 2008 regular season and playoffs (86%)
INDY is 10-0 ATS VS KC last 10 games played getting +6 teaser and are 9-1 ATS vs KC last 10 games at prevailing odds +13
Still, statistically finding four teams with teaser stats like INDYs 86 % only nets a 55% win probability for 4 teams
NEO great stuff...
84-85% is what we are looking for and 79% is not good...
38.95% chance of 4 team 13 point teasers hitting if chosen randomly...
IND is a nice stat, I would be interested in NO also as teams with decent passing offenses can stay competitive when behind...
(not counting the last 3 games of season last year when they had nothing to play for)
NEW ORLEANS is 46-0-2 covering ATS line +13 2008-2010 including preseasons, with both ties at home
SO far, statistically :
NO, Balt, and Indy are good teaser teams with excellent ATS +13 records
INdy 31-5 , 2 loses at home Balt 48-3-1 , 0 loses at home NO 46-0-2 , 0 loses at home
125-11 if ties lose or 92%
Curiously, I'm gonna eventually find another good team to make 4 and then compare 08, 09 and 2010 to see what the win/lose record would be if you had just teased those teams every week.
(not counting the last 3 games of season last year when they had nothing to play for)
NEW ORLEANS is 46-0-2 covering ATS line +13 2008-2010 including preseasons, with both ties at home
SO far, statistically :
NO, Balt, and Indy are good teaser teams with excellent ATS +13 records
INdy 31-5 , 2 loses at home Balt 48-3-1 , 0 loses at home NO 46-0-2 , 0 loses at home
125-11 if ties lose or 92%
Curiously, I'm gonna eventually find another good team to make 4 and then compare 08, 09 and 2010 to see what the win/lose record would be if you had just teased those teams every week.
Hey, I wanted to point, out that these are fun mental math exercises for me I guess, figuring out percentages and probabilities blah blah blah.
BUt in the real world, these trends, Teams that cover +13 well lately etc... DON'T continue perpetually, and I don't expect them to. The only reason they JUMP OUT is because they are anomaly's.
I'm just observing and maybe seeing if I can catch the end of a trend for a while.
Peace Out NEO
Hey, I wanted to point, out that these are fun mental math exercises for me I guess, figuring out percentages and probabilities blah blah blah.
BUt in the real world, these trends, Teams that cover +13 well lately etc... DON'T continue perpetually, and I don't expect them to. The only reason they JUMP OUT is because they are anomaly's.
I'm just observing and maybe seeing if I can catch the end of a trend for a while.
really quick , 85% is not great either statistically.
.85 x .85 x .85 x . 85 = 52.2% , maybe slightly higher
IDEALLY , one would want to be looking for 90% statistical win probobility per each part of the 4 team teaser
.9 x .9 x .9 x .9 = 65%, much better
I'll check NO next, also curious about NE and oakland.
agreed on the 90%, there is only one angle that I have found that seems to hit at this rate... homedogs coming off of a bye... this is an automatic play for me and an an increase to a 1.5 or 2 unit bet...
Quote Originally Posted by NEO - THE ONE:
really quick , 85% is not great either statistically.
.85 x .85 x .85 x . 85 = 52.2% , maybe slightly higher
IDEALLY , one would want to be looking for 90% statistical win probobility per each part of the 4 team teaser
.9 x .9 x .9 x .9 = 65%, much better
I'll check NO next, also curious about NE and oakland.
agreed on the 90%, there is only one angle that I have found that seems to hit at this rate... homedogs coming off of a bye... this is an automatic play for me and an an increase to a 1.5 or 2 unit bet...
)
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