suuma's NFL week five «» write-ups inside

Good thoughts fellas! Will try to get back to everyone throughout the day.

BOL SUUMA

...tailing as always...guide me to profit once more

That was a great read suuma, thanks for the insight...and always nice to see a fellow German here

I was leaning Dallas all week long but my principle of not taking a replacement QB against an elite QB combined with the fact that Randy Gregory won't line up and Hardy talked trash about Gisele held me back at the end.

Teams who won by 30+ before more > 10 days rest have gone 15-14 SU, 10-17 ATS. Road teams are 1-9 SU and 1-9 ATS during the reg season since 1989. The Patriots still have a porous defense and Brandon Weeden has put up 7.72 NYPPA. They will try to run to keep Tom Brady as much sidelined as they can and I've got no doubt that Weeden is able to expose this secondary at times. On the other side the Cowboys get Greg Hardy and McClain back, Sean Lee is also ready to go. They have a pretty good front seven that should cause some troubles against the young Patriots OL and those short passes. The Patriots are in the best position when they have a lead, but if the Cowboys try to attack them early they have a good chance to wear them down in the second half.

Also I've seen a lot comments about the Cowboys having a bad matchup with their secondary against the Patriots. Since when does it matter whether you have a good secondary or not against Tom Brady?? This offense is built to not be dependent on the opposite secondary, like we have seen against Denver, Seattle and Buffalo. You have to keep TB sidelined and try to set up a pass rush combined with good coverage around the line of scrimmage.

Niners season is on the line on prime time while the Giants have been playing much better than I expected. There are no logical reasons to take the Niners IMO. I am considering taking the Giants in a teaser.

Saints weren't consistent either. This is probably the worst defense right now with a banged up OL against a stout front seven off an overtime win before a TNF clash with the 4-0 Falcons. No way I could touch the Saints. This is the perfect spot/opponent for the Eagles to win comfortably.

Let's get them bud

Sorry I forgot that to add to my write-up, thank you.

Are those SOS rankings based on win percentage?

Bengals are a very interesting team this week. Remember last year ? Bengals open the season 3-0, winning by 7, 14 and then 26, the following week the play a very good team in the Pats who at the time were in a free-fall, offense playing terrible and they really needed a win.

The Broncos had two successful drives when I remember right along with one at the end where the Chiefs had some weird prevent play-calling. Just like the Panthers before halftime against the Jaguars.

The Chiefs defense has been good during the first two games but the last two games on the road against two teams who will probably see Championship game appearances deflated their numbers and outcome A LOT. This is basically the same defense like last season who lost Phillip Gaines but got guys back just like Derrick Johnson. They will look a lot better in the future, starting tomorrow.

Recent Bears injury report:

Alan Ball LP Questionable
Jermon Bushrod Out
Jay Cutler LP Questionable
Jimmy Clausen LP Questionable
Alshon Jeffery DNP Questionable
Kyle Long LP Questionable
Shea McClellin LP Questionable
Sherrick McManis LP Questionable
Pernell McPhee DNP Questionable
Jeremiah Ratliff LP Questionable
Antrel Rolle DNP Doubtful
Eddie Royal DNP Questionable
Will Sutton LP Questionable

50% of their starters are either out or questionable. 50% of their starters practiced limited or not at all.

How are they going to stay within two TDs in a terrible spot on the road against a Chiefs team that played below value so far.

Interesting analogy, but I think this isn't the same situation. The Patriots got steamrolled by the Chiefs on the road and the Bengals were on the road missing some key players like Marvin Jones & Tyler Eifert and had no pass rush at all. They are a complete team right now and the Seahawks are off a close home win.

Your write-up is phenomenal

I believe the Cardinals will have some problems in the second half of the season when facing a tougher schedule. But this spot is too good to pass.

wish me luck Bro... I'm in the big black hole now

Seattle are still the public darling while the Bengals have still something to prove in Joe Public's mind. Oddsmakers open lines at numbers where they believe can generate 50/50 action. If the action isn't 50/50, the lines move towards the discrepancy. Algorithms take care of that at big oddsmakers like offshores.

I know you believe that there are games which have loopsided money splits but unless you can prove me that, I won't believe it. Why should a big bookie (not a local though) take so much risk by accepting a 80/20 money split on a spread? One late pick six and he gets burned.

As long as so many people in the world are betting so much money day in day out, bookies win on every game off the juice, so why would they take loopsided action?? And if they take loopsided action, why do lines move so often? That wouldn't make sense.

On Sundays you can follow line movement going crazy on NFL games two hours before kickoff because there is much money coming in on the games. If games are rigged or bookies know who wins, they don't need to move the lines do they?

Thanks for your comment, wish you the best this week

Nice that we agree on a lot of games this week. May the better team win in the CIN game buddy

That's true. Let's get them

Thanks for the replies Suuma. I like the Rams +9/9.5. The way to stay competitive with GB is to have a strong run game to keep Rodgers off the field. Also GB defense is average at best I think so with Gurley running, Foles will be able to make throws and keep drives going and hopefully score some. Foles may be under rated as a QB, he can sling it and is accurate.

Thanks for your comment. I believe what you have said could be said about Tony Romo as well. Andy Dalton is a QB I would put into the category "good". Not elite, but good. Give him a elite OL and a good/healthy receiving corps and he will burn opposing defenses. The Seahawks had no shot against Dallas last season, the score of 30-23 was sailed by turnovers. I see an equal game where the Seahawks don't get pressure on the QB and struggle to score. Teams with good OLs and running games also are resistent against backdoor covers, because they can run the time out when having a lead.

Good luck this week, hope you keep chiming in

If you had followed my threads during the off-season you have noticed that I am very high on the Rams and picked them as a clear playoff team this year. With Nick Foles and Todd Gurley they would have been a 10-6 or 11-5 team last year. This offense is perfectly set up to put Foles into play-action mode.

I am also leaning strong towards the Rams but will most likely tease them to +16. IF Rodgers can beat this defense by 16+ without Nelson, Adams, a banged up Jones and questionable OL play, he deserves MVP of the week.

Good Stuff

Russell Wilson has had a lead in his last 88 games dating back to college.

Summa-

I posted this in one of the other threads but think it got over looked.. Being so well versed on NFL teams and their O-line I was wondering your thoughts on this.  Do you think Belichek and crew are starting a trend that will stick?  The challenge this presents to defenses is pretty amazing, they dont know what to prepare for.  Seems like Bill uses this to find the "hot hand" on the offensive line for the second half.... Pats are averaging 20.3 points in the 2H where the next closest is 16.3 ... half the league is under 12 points 2h.. I think the pats stumbled on something while working out there O-line injuries... I love it..  Most games are won and lost on the front line, thats why I love reading your write ups!  Thanks


https://www.bostonherald.com/sports/patriots_nfl/new_england_patriots/2015/09/patriots_innovative_offensive_line_combos_make_foes


https://www.bostonherald.com/sports/patriots_nfl/the_blitz/2015/09/examining_the_patriots_o_line_rotations_by_the_numbers