Posted:
#101
BOL Summa
FYI the Bears are starting 4 guys off the street on special teams today. Alshon and Eddie Royal out
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suuma's NFL week five «» write-ups inside
Posted:
#102
Quote Originally Posted by Champion_RX:
This Tenn line ... I just don't see it ... Sexy Rexy V. Rookie QB ... Pinny has Tenn as small fav now.. Seems like a scare line to me, I can't think of a good reason to back ten ... stats have them even but buf has actually played real football teams.
This Tenn line ... I just don't see it ... Sexy Rexy V. Rookie QB ... Pinny has Tenn as small fav now.. Seems like a scare line to me, I can't think of a good reason to back ten ... stats have them even but buf has actually played real football teams.
Hopefully the Titans win today, so we can grab a better line for Miami next week.
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Posted:
#109
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
1. Do you have access to information of Pinnacle or 5D or a Vegas book? Or is your number from a free site posting consensus numbers from free betting contests? And Seattle is still the public darling because they have 50/50 action at the number 3 and not 5 where this line should be based on both team's talent and performances.
2. Well then post some sources of proof.
"[...] disproportionate number of bets" - what does that have to do with the amount of money? You can have 90/10 action in terms of betting volume when the money split is 50/50.
1. Do you have access to information of Pinnacle or 5D or a Vegas book? Or is your number from a free site posting consensus numbers from free betting contests? And Seattle is still the public darling because they have 50/50 action at the number 3 and not 5 where this line should be based on both team's talent and performances.
2. Well then post some sources of proof.
"[...] disproportionate number of bets" - what does that have to do with the amount of money? You can have 90/10 action in terms of betting volume when the money split is 50/50.
1. I used consolidated database that compiles betting info from over 12 different sports books (including pinnacle and 5D). Vegas lines are not typically as sharp as sharp online books fyi.
2. I'm not going to do your homework for you. If you're betting on NFL games without knowing extremely basic stuff, that's your own issue.
In response to the bolded text, the oddsmaker assumption being operated upon is that higher dollar amount will follow bet volume (they know that this isn't always the case in reality but this is the assumption, as it is correct more times than not). They aren't making these lines to "trap sharps" as I've seen suggested in some thread threads.
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Posted:
#110
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
I know you believe that there are games which have loopsided money splits but unless you can prove me that, I won't believe it. Why should a big bookie (not a local though) take so much risk by accepting a 80/20 money split on a spread? One late pick six and he gets burned.
As long as so many people in the world are betting so much money day in day out, bookies win on every game off the juice, so why would they take loopsided action?? And if they take loopsided action, why do lines move so often? That wouldn't make sense.
On Sundays you can follow line movement going crazy on NFL games two hours before kickoff because there is much money coming in on the games. If games are rigged or bookies know who wins, they don't need to move the lines do they?
Thanks for your comment, wish you the best this week
I know you believe that there are games which have loopsided money splits but unless you can prove me that, I won't believe it. Why should a big bookie (not a local though) take so much risk by accepting a 80/20 money split on a spread? One late pick six and he gets burned.
As long as so many people in the world are betting so much money day in day out, bookies win on every game off the juice, so why would they take loopsided action?? And if they take loopsided action, why do lines move so often? That wouldn't make sense.
On Sundays you can follow line movement going crazy on NFL games two hours before kickoff because there is much money coming in on the games. If games are rigged or bookies know who wins, they don't need to move the lines do they?
Thanks for your comment, wish you the best this week
Just trying to educate people, take it or leave it.
In theory it would be ideal in a laboratory environment for the bookmaker to get equal 50/50 action on the games.
In reality though it doesn't work this way and you cannot balance the action even with line moves. Every week there are games that are out of balance, perhaps as high as 4 to 1 money on a side.
But back to the theory, the point spread is designed to make the teams even or a 50/50 proposition correct?
So tell me how many of us on here would gladly take points and a +400 ML on an NFL team?
This combined with the fact that money won returns and is churned over and over against these odds is how they make money.
And there is no way to get around the risk, it is the business after all. If a book took didn't want the risk they would buyout, place a bet with another book to offload the risk. They don't do this, because they know that the odds I mentioned are in their favor and over time it will be profitable (sure they have bad weeks but the money comes back).
You are correct they are not trying to fool anyone with the lines nor predict the final score, they are simply trying to get the values correct for the marketplace and the marketplace will determine the balance. But they are trying to be sharp with the numbers and not get out of line with other books. If they don't then sharper bettors will recognize the value and that 4 to 1 with the points game get's eaten into by sharp players to a 2 to 1.
Perhaps I'm not explaining it as well as it could be but I'm quite certain that books are not getting 50/50 action on all games and nor are they offloading risk. If you offloaded your risk to get every game to 50/50 you would go broke as a bookmaker, guaranteed.
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Posted:
#112
Quote Originally Posted by JBone_Texas:
Just trying to educate people, take it or leave it.
In theory it would be ideal in a laboratory environment for the bookmaker to get equal 50/50 action on the games.
In reality though it doesn't work this way and you cannot balance the action even with line moves. Every week there are games that are out of balance, perhaps as high as 4 to 1 money on a side.
But back to the theory, the point spread is designed to make the teams even or a 50/50 proposition correct?
So tell me how many of us on here would gladly take points and a +400 ML on an NFL team?
This combined with the fact that money won returns and is churned over and over against these odds is how they make money.
And there is no way to get around the risk, it is the business after all. If a book took didn't want the risk they would buyout, place a bet with another book to offload the risk. They don't do this, because they know that the odds I mentioned are in their favor and over time it will be profitable (sure they have bad weeks but the money comes back).
You are correct they are not trying to fool anyone with the lines nor predict the final score, they are simply trying to get the values correct for the marketplace and the marketplace will determine the balance. But they are trying to be sharp with the numbers and not get out of line with other books. If they don't then sharper bettors will recognize the value and that 4 to 1 with the points game get's eaten into by sharp players to a 2 to 1.
Perhaps I'm not explaining it as well as it could be but I'm quite certain that books are not getting 50/50 action on all games and nor are they offloading risk. If you offloaded your risk to get every game to 50/50 you would go broke as a bookmaker, guaranteed.
You're "educating" people with misinformation. There is no "theory" purporting 50-50 action = profit maximization for sportsbooks.
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Posted:
#117
Bears had no shot until Charles got injured. It changed the dynamic as they werent able to milk the clock.
Redskins backers please tell me how lucky you got. Falcons outgained them by 150 yards despite having a bad day. After Q3, Freeman had more yards than the Skins. Two missed field goal, missed two point, two turnovers in Skins territory. Unbelievable.
Bengals showed why they are the best team right now, rallying from 7-24 down. Seahawks were not able to march a lot while the Bengals moved the chains on a lot of drives. Push saved it at the end.
Capped those matchups right but 0-2 is the result, very frustrating.
On to next week.
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Posted:
#118
Quote Originally Posted by DrJohn3719:
Quote Originally Posted by JBone_Texas:
Just trying to educate people, take it or leave it.In theory it would be ideal in a laboratory environment for the bookmaker to get equal 50/50 action on the games.In reality though it doesn't work this way and you cannot balance the action even with line moves. Every week there are games that are out of balance, perhaps as high as 4 to 1 money on a side.But back to the theory, the point spread is designed to make the teams even or a 50/50 proposition correct? So tell me how many of us on here would gladly take points and a +400 ML on an NFL team?This combined with the fact that money won returns and is churned over and over against these odds is how they make money.And there is no way to get around the risk, it is the business after all. If a book took didn't want the risk they would buyout, place a bet with another book to offload the risk. They don't do this, because they know that the odds I mentioned are in their favor and over time it will be profitable (sure they have bad weeks but the money comes back). You are correct they are not trying to fool anyone with the lines nor predict the final score, they are simply trying to get the values correct for the marketplace and the marketplace will determine the balance. But they are trying to be sharp with the numbers and not get out of line with other books. If they don't then sharper bettors will recognize the value and that 4 to 1 with the points game get's eaten into by sharp players to a 2 to 1.Perhaps I'm not explaining it as well as it could be but I'm quite certain that books are not getting 50/50 action on all games and nor are they offloading risk. If you offloaded your risk to get every game to 50/50 you would go broke as a bookmaker, guaranteed.
You're "educating" people with misinformation. There is no "theory" purporting 50-50 action = profit maximization for sportsbooks.Just trying to educate people, take it or leave it.In theory it would be ideal in a laboratory environment for the bookmaker to get equal 50/50 action on the games.In reality though it doesn't work this way and you cannot balance the action even with line moves. Every week there are games that are out of balance, perhaps as high as 4 to 1 money on a side.But back to the theory, the point spread is designed to make the teams even or a 50/50 proposition correct? So tell me how many of us on here would gladly take points and a +400 ML on an NFL team?This combined with the fact that money won returns and is churned over and over against these odds is how they make money.And there is no way to get around the risk, it is the business after all. If a book took didn't want the risk they would buyout, place a bet with another book to offload the risk. They don't do this, because they know that the odds I mentioned are in their favor and over time it will be profitable (sure they have bad weeks but the money comes back). You are correct they are not trying to fool anyone with the lines nor predict the final score, they are simply trying to get the values correct for the marketplace and the marketplace will determine the balance. But they are trying to be sharp with the numbers and not get out of line with other books. If they don't then sharper bettors will recognize the value and that 4 to 1 with the points game get's eaten into by sharp players to a 2 to 1.Perhaps I'm not explaining it as well as it could be but I'm quite certain that books are not getting 50/50 action on all games and nor are they offloading risk. If you offloaded your risk to get every game to 50/50 you would go broke as a bookmaker, guaranteed.
Who said profit maximization was the primary goal for the books. The way they make their money is the commissions, which is riskless in a perfect split money scenario. Sure making money is a goal, but they are going to try to drive down the risk to zero as much as possible, and that's just as high a priority as maximizing profits by "winning" on sides.
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Posted:
#119
Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:
So you tried to school me on how Vegas does/does not run the show.
Looks like I'm the victor this week.
All your "public" plays are losses. One of your "non-public" play is a blow-out winner
So you tried to school me on how Vegas does/does not run the show.
Looks like I'm the victor this week.
All your "public" plays are losses. One of your "non-public" play is a blow-out winner
You are never going to be a victor on a NFL sports forum because you can't neither cap any game by yourself nor contribute to any Football-related discussion. And if you would know anything about how this game is played you would admit that you were still wrong after how the games played out.
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Posted:
#120
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
Bears had no shot until Charles got injured. It changed the dynamic as they werent able to milk the clock.
Bears had no shot until Charles got injured. It changed the dynamic as they werent able to milk the clock.
Redskins backers please tell me how lucky you got. Falcons outgained them by 150 yards despite having a bad day. After Q3, Freeman had more yards than the Skins. Two missed field goal, missed two point, two turnovers in Skins territory. Unbelievable.
Bengals showed why they are the best team right now, rallying from 7-24 down. Seahawks were not able to march a lot while the Bengals moved the chains on a lot of drives. Push saved it at the end.
Capped those matchups right but 0-2 is the result, very frustrating.
On to next week.
I am not sure if KC would have covered if Charles did not get injured. It is tough to say because Cutler was able to lead two TD drives. Even then KC got a defensive TD that put them in position to cover so they barely scored themselves. I think it is tough to lay 9 pts with KC when they don't score a lot. Also their defense seems to not be a good one so that makes it tough to lay that much.
For the Rams, I think the early defensive touchdown hurt the Rams. Rams also missed 3 FGs though they were for 50, 53 and 63. One was blocked. Foles had an interception after a big Gurley run where they should have scored. Then Foles gets several chances to cover at the end of the game but got intercepted again. Its tough but hard to go against GB at home.
The CIN game was tough especially for those we had -3. I got KC, Rams and CIN -3 in one pool where you make 5 picks.
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Posted:
#122
Quote Originally Posted by NFLCap:
I am not sure if KC would have covered if Charles did not get injured. It is tough to say because Cutler was able to lead two TD drives. Even then KC got a defensive TD that put them in position to cover so they barely scored themselves. I think it is tough to lay 9 pts with KC when they don't score a lot. Also their defense seems to not be a good one so that makes it tough to lay that much.
For the Rams, I think the early defensive touchdown hurt the Rams. Rams also missed 3 FGs though they were for 50, 53 and 63. One was blocked. Foles had an interception after a big Gurley run where they should have scored. Then Foles gets several chances to cover at the end of the game but got intercepted again. Its tough but hard to go against GB at home.
The CIN game was tough especially for those we had -3. I got KC, Rams and CIN -3 in one pool where you make 5 picks.
Their running game with Charles was a reason why I layed -9 because they are able to milk the clock when up by a certain margin which he showed with 4.8 YPC once again today. No doubt they would have covered.
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Posted:
#124
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
You are never going to be a victor on a NFL sports forum because you can't neither cap any game by yourself nor contribute to any Football-related discussion. And if you would know anything about how this game is played you would admit that you were still wrong after how the games played out.
oh,wait wait wait suuma...you are forgetting those times he described how suitcases of money were exchanged in order to bring about results in nba games and the multiple times he posted losers of games he claims were pre-arranged and how he knew "the script" beforehand....go back far enuff in this dudes history and the true extent of his douche-baggery will be revealed in all its ridiculous "glory"
...and im not actually sure if he believes the stuff or is kidding.he mite just be that crazy.
...and im not actually sure if he believes the stuff or is kidding.he mite just be that crazy.and lets not forget hes the same guy that used to routinely go into scalabrine(and many other) threads to rag on the guys picks...mostly wen games were part way thru mind you.
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Posted:
#125
Quote Originally Posted by melossinglet:
oh,wait wait wait suuma...you are forgetting those times he described how suitcases of money were exchanged in order to bring about results in nba games and the multiple times he posted losers of games he claims were pre-arranged and how he knew "the script" beforehand....go back far enuff in this dudes history and the true extent of his douche-baggery will be revealed in all its ridiculous "glory"...and im not actually sure if he believes the stuff or is kidding.he mite just be that crazy.
...and im not actually sure if he believes the stuff or is kidding.he mite just be that crazy.and lets not forget hes the same guy that used to routinely go into scalabrine(and many other) threads to rag on the guys picks...mostly wen games were part way thru mind you.
I remember when he took the Pelicans straight up at Golden State in game 2 of this year's playoffs because the Warriors would want to lose at home to give their beloved fans another home game in game 5
He cant cap games. He just opens threads to look for guys he can hate on and laugh at when they are losing. He is a poor guy. He also said in BB's thread no one should bet on the Cardinals because the "public" is betting them. Now he needs a good amount of luck to not get exposed on that one.
This league is about matchups and spots week in week out. There is no "Vegas wins" or "public burial". If you are able to cap matchups and spots and know how this game is played, you will be successful over the course of a season.
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