Can anyone give me some good reasoning of why to take the Redskins? It seems like everyone on betting forums is on the Skins and that's never a good sign. Julio is playing.
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Can anyone give me some good reasoning of why to take the Redskins? It seems like everyone on betting forums is on the Skins and that's never a good sign. Julio is playing.
Can anyone give me some good reasoning of why to take the Redskins? It seems like everyone on betting forums is on the Skins and that's never a good sign. Julio is playing.
Let me tell you my reason to back Redskins, and you can call it "betting with my heart" :).
- Can ATL go 5-0 SU ? Yes
- Can ATL go 5-0 ATS ? More chance for No than Yes
- Can ATL defeat the entire NFC ? Likely No
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Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
Can anyone give me some good reasoning of why to take the Redskins? It seems like everyone on betting forums is on the Skins and that's never a good sign. Julio is playing.
Let me tell you my reason to back Redskins, and you can call it "betting with my heart" :).
- Can ATL go 5-0 SU ? Yes
- Can ATL go 5-0 ATS ? More chance for No than Yes
I can't tell you why to take the Skins-they had no business winning last week and only the Eagles issues allowed them and Atl is as good as NE right now and as long as they play 80% as good as last week, they'll be fine
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I can't tell you why to take the Skins-they had no business winning last week and only the Eagles issues allowed them and Atl is as good as NE right now and as long as they play 80% as good as last week, they'll be fine
Russell Wilson has had a lead in his last 88 games dating back to college.
Last year he had 11 fumbles but lost zero.
This year he has 3 fumbles and lost 2.
He has been sacked 18 times
Dalton has 1 fumble which was lost.
He is averaging 10.2 yds per pass this yr.
He has been sacked 2 times.
Andy Dalton: 9 to 1 td/int__career 108 to 67
comp 67.2%__career 61.9%
Russell Wilson: 5 to 2 td/int, career 77 to 28
comp 71.7%__career 64.2%
Andy Dalton has turned a corner IMO. Having that stout o line helps him a bunch. The Seattle secondary will be his toughest challenge to date.
Russell Wilson is not getting the o line blocking like he used to, the sack total shows us that. But dispite that his comp% is up from his career. The guy is a true winner and leader, he has intangibles that can't be capped.
Has Dalton turned a corner ? Or did he have a moment of random chance ?
If Dalton were to continue at that pace he'd put in one of the greatest QB season in History, do you really think he will do that ?
It's far more likely he will regresss back closer to his averages, after a moment of nothing more than random chance.
And because he's playing so well Seattle is very aware of this just as much as you are and will prepare extra hard to slow him down, be extra focused on what's needed, the little things, because they really need a win here, while Dalton won't likely chance what he's doing because it's working, but Seattle knows what he's doing from the film work.
I'm not saying to take Seattle here, just that there is another way of looking at it which produces wins.
Bengals will likely regresss soon, could be this week, but if they do win and cover this week, next week could be a big regression for them.
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Russell Wilson has had a lead in his last 88 games dating back to college.
Last year he had 11 fumbles but lost zero.
This year he has 3 fumbles and lost 2.
He has been sacked 18 times
Dalton has 1 fumble which was lost.
He is averaging 10.2 yds per pass this yr.
He has been sacked 2 times.
Andy Dalton: 9 to 1 td/int__career 108 to 67
comp 67.2%__career 61.9%
Russell Wilson: 5 to 2 td/int, career 77 to 28
comp 71.7%__career 64.2%
Andy Dalton has turned a corner IMO. Having that stout o line helps him a bunch. The Seattle secondary will be his toughest challenge to date.
Russell Wilson is not getting the o line blocking like he used to, the sack total shows us that. But dispite that his comp% is up from his career. The guy is a true winner and leader, he has intangibles that can't be capped.
Has Dalton turned a corner ? Or did he have a moment of random chance ?
If Dalton were to continue at that pace he'd put in one of the greatest QB season in History, do you really think he will do that ?
It's far more likely he will regresss back closer to his averages, after a moment of nothing more than random chance.
And because he's playing so well Seattle is very aware of this just as much as you are and will prepare extra hard to slow him down, be extra focused on what's needed, the little things, because they really need a win here, while Dalton won't likely chance what he's doing because it's working, but Seattle knows what he's doing from the film work.
I'm not saying to take Seattle here, just that there is another way of looking at it which produces wins.
Bengals will likely regresss soon, could be this week, but if they do win and cover this week, next week could be a big regression for them.
I could be wrong on the stat, but I think it's something like 80% of the time the spread doesn't even come into play in regards to the result of a game. Someone know, post it. Tks
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I could be wrong on the stat, but I think it's something like 80% of the time the spread doesn't even come into play in regards to the result of a game. Someone know, post it. Tks
Can anyone give me some good reasoning of why to take the Redskins? It seems like everyone on betting forums is on the Skins and that's never a good sign. Julio is playing.
Seems to me skins last road and only road game this season was@ NYG. Their defense gave up 30 pure points..i do a pure points evaluation on final scores. Wash defense gave up 29ppg last 8 @way games. Most of their defensive stats this year are based on home games...If anyone watched how Eli easily picked apart that defense in week 3...Matty ice will do the same. il be on Atlanta
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
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Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
Can anyone give me some good reasoning of why to take the Redskins? It seems like everyone on betting forums is on the Skins and that's never a good sign. Julio is playing.
Seems to me skins last road and only road game this season was@ NYG. Their defense gave up 30 pure points..i do a pure points evaluation on final scores. Wash defense gave up 29ppg last 8 @way games. Most of their defensive stats this year are based on home games...If anyone watched how Eli easily picked apart that defense in week 3...Matty ice will do the same. il be on Atlanta
I realize I fade the estimable Suuma at my own risk, but here goes:
Eagles
T.O.P. must be nearing some kind of record low. They have the ball on
average less than 23 minutes per game. They run an avg. 16 fewer plays
from the line of scrimmage than their opponents. Philly run game sucks
as well. Y.P.C. is around 3.6, and they have only managed 80 carries
total the entire year, 39 of those in their lone victory vs. the Jets.
This is the genius of Chip Kelly? Hard to win when you put your
defense under that kind of pressure.
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I realize I fade the estimable Suuma at my own risk, but here goes:
Eagles
T.O.P. must be nearing some kind of record low. They have the ball on
average less than 23 minutes per game. They run an avg. 16 fewer plays
from the line of scrimmage than their opponents. Philly run game sucks
as well. Y.P.C. is around 3.6, and they have only managed 80 carries
total the entire year, 39 of those in their lone victory vs. the Jets.
This is the genius of Chip Kelly? Hard to win when you put your
defense under that kind of pressure.
Niners season is on the line on prime time while the Giants have been playing much better than I expected. There are no logical reasons to take the Niners IMO. I am considering taking the Giants in a teaser.
. RJ bell brought up an interesting thing on sf... Their body clocks, by the time the third qtr starts will be prime time, while the giants will be bed time.
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Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
Niners season is on the line on prime time while the Giants have been playing much better than I expected. There are no logical reasons to take the Niners IMO. I am considering taking the Giants in a teaser.
. RJ bell brought up an interesting thing on sf... Their body clocks, by the time the third qtr starts will be prime time, while the giants will be bed time.
. RJ bell brought up an interesting thing on sf... Their body clocks, by the time the third qtr starts will be prime time, while the giants will be bed time.
Yeah I remember a trend. Pacfic teams are like 10-1 SU & ATS on MNF at the East coast. Maybe something like this applies for SNF as well.
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Quote Originally Posted by Igglez:
. RJ bell brought up an interesting thing on sf... Their body clocks, by the time the third qtr starts will be prime time, while the giants will be bed time.
Yeah I remember a trend. Pacfic teams are like 10-1 SU & ATS on MNF at the East coast. Maybe something like this applies for SNF as well.
I realize I fade the estimable Suuma at my own risk, but here goes:
Eagles
T.O.P. must be nearing some kind of record low. They have the ball on
average less than 23 minutes per game. They run an avg. 16 fewer plays
from the line of scrimmage than their opponents. Philly run game sucks
as well. Y.P.C. is around 3.6, and they have only managed 80 carries
total the entire year, 39 of those in their lone victory vs. the Jets.
This is the genius of Chip Kelly? Hard to win when you put your
defense under that kind of pressure.
1. If you can't execute with your no-huddle offense, you will ever have less TOP than your opponent.
2. YPC have virtually no correlation to scoring points.
3. They run fewer plays from the line of scrimmage because they were behind in almost every game except at New York. You don't have many carries when you are behind.
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Quote Originally Posted by worthashot:
I realize I fade the estimable Suuma at my own risk, but here goes:
Eagles
T.O.P. must be nearing some kind of record low. They have the ball on
average less than 23 minutes per game. They run an avg. 16 fewer plays
from the line of scrimmage than their opponents. Philly run game sucks
as well. Y.P.C. is around 3.6, and they have only managed 80 carries
total the entire year, 39 of those in their lone victory vs. the Jets.
This is the genius of Chip Kelly? Hard to win when you put your
defense under that kind of pressure.
1. If you can't execute with your no-huddle offense, you will ever have less TOP than your opponent.
2. YPC have virtually no correlation to scoring points.
3. They run fewer plays from the line of scrimmage because they were behind in almost every game except at New York. You don't have many carries when you are behind.
I could be wrong on the stat, but I think it's something like 80% of the time the spread doesn't even come into play in regards to the result of a game. Someone know, post it. Tks
That is correct. Since 1989, it's just over 80% of the time that the spread does not factor into the final score. Therefore, you'd think people would try to bet the ML for underdogs more often. I'm not saying don't play spreads because sometimes you're saved by the points. It's more that the line shouldn't necessarily dictate how you play the game.
I read all the time about people saying "sharp" bettors hit certain numbers for bets. Great, I'm sure that helps them 20% of the time when the spread matters. How are they at picking games overall from year to year?
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Quote Originally Posted by slomotion:
I could be wrong on the stat, but I think it's something like 80% of the time the spread doesn't even come into play in regards to the result of a game. Someone know, post it. Tks
That is correct. Since 1989, it's just over 80% of the time that the spread does not factor into the final score. Therefore, you'd think people would try to bet the ML for underdogs more often. I'm not saying don't play spreads because sometimes you're saved by the points. It's more that the line shouldn't necessarily dictate how you play the game.
I read all the time about people saying "sharp" bettors hit certain numbers for bets. Great, I'm sure that helps them 20% of the time when the spread matters. How are they at picking games overall from year to year?
Can anyone give me some good reasoning of why to take the Redskins? It seems like everyone on betting forums is on the Skins and that's never a good sign. Julio is playing.
I can't touch Washington but there is an interesting matchup in the first half... Redskins D has been stingy first half only giving up an avg of 5.5 pts while ATL is top 1h scoring offense avg almost 19pts... Wash is anemic in the first half on offense as well in the bottom half of teams.. Small sample size but I think wash will be in trouble unless they can come up with some non offensive scoring plays which they are also horrendous at ... I would lean 1h under with a banged up Julio, WASH may keep it close with tough def in the first half.
*** HOPEFULLY I DON'T CRASH THE SITE AGAIN***
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Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
Can anyone give me some good reasoning of why to take the Redskins? It seems like everyone on betting forums is on the Skins and that's never a good sign. Julio is playing.
I can't touch Washington but there is an interesting matchup in the first half... Redskins D has been stingy first half only giving up an avg of 5.5 pts while ATL is top 1h scoring offense avg almost 19pts... Wash is anemic in the first half on offense as well in the bottom half of teams.. Small sample size but I think wash will be in trouble unless they can come up with some non offensive scoring plays which they are also horrendous at ... I would lean 1h under with a banged up Julio, WASH may keep it close with tough def in the first half.
Don't let the trolls waste your time. FOCUS on what you know and do and let the season record speak for itself. We appreciate the write ups and the time you spend here posting your picks.
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Good luck buddy
Don't let the trolls waste your time. FOCUS on what you know and do and let the season record speak for itself. We appreciate the write ups and the time you spend here posting your picks.
I can't touch Washington but there is an interesting matchup in the first half... Redskins D has been stingy first half only giving up an avg of 5.5 pts while ATL is top 1h scoring offense avg almost 19pts... Wash is anemic in the first half on offense as well in the bottom half of teams.. Small sample size but I think wash will be in trouble unless they can come up with some non offensive scoring plays which they are also horrendous at ... I would lean 1h under with a banged up Julio, WASH may keep it close with tough def in the first half.
*** HOPEFULLY I DON'T CRASH THE SITE AGAIN***
To quote one source from Twitter: "Julio looks great".
I will be playing the Falcons, just waiting for a line move towards -6.5.
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Quote Originally Posted by Champion_RX:
I can't touch Washington but there is an interesting matchup in the first half... Redskins D has been stingy first half only giving up an avg of 5.5 pts while ATL is top 1h scoring offense avg almost 19pts... Wash is anemic in the first half on offense as well in the bottom half of teams.. Small sample size but I think wash will be in trouble unless they can come up with some non offensive scoring plays which they are also horrendous at ... I would lean 1h under with a banged up Julio, WASH may keep it close with tough def in the first half.
*** HOPEFULLY I DON'T CRASH THE SITE AGAIN***
To quote one source from Twitter: "Julio looks great".
I will be playing the Falcons, just waiting for a line move towards -6.5.
I'm amazed at some of the clueless and arrogant comments on here. Suuma takes the time and effort to write up his thoughts and excellent analysis and post them, free of charge, and others, who have neither the skill or knowledge to create their posts will throw up negative comments, anonymously, of course.
Thanks, everything fine buddy, let's win big today
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Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess:
I'm amazed at some of the clueless and arrogant comments on here. Suuma takes the time and effort to write up his thoughts and excellent analysis and post them, free of charge, and others, who have neither the skill or knowledge to create their posts will throw up negative comments, anonymously, of course.
Thanks, everything fine buddy, let's win big today
2 questions .. 1. What do you think about the philly over? I didn't get a great number but decent at 49 ... They are one of the only teams left 0-4 OU (the other being Min depending on what line you got last week) ... Some interesting info from the query along with a good spot...
In game 5 home teams off 4 straight UNDERS in a row (EAGLES) have gone 20-8-1 O/U... Also 9-1 O/U when the OU line is > 36 points
2. I generally don't play many teasers other then 2 teamers BUT a local I have is hanging bad odds on 4 TEAM 13 POINT (ties lose) teasers (-120) they also let you do all sides or all totals. I've found the odds to be almost true odds where usually you have to lay -140.. Thoughts?
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2 questions .. 1. What do you think about the philly over? I didn't get a great number but decent at 49 ... They are one of the only teams left 0-4 OU (the other being Min depending on what line you got last week) ... Some interesting info from the query along with a good spot...
In game 5 home teams off 4 straight UNDERS in a row (EAGLES) have gone 20-8-1 O/U... Also 9-1 O/U when the OU line is > 36 points
2. I generally don't play many teasers other then 2 teamers BUT a local I have is hanging bad odds on 4 TEAM 13 POINT (ties lose) teasers (-120) they also let you do all sides or all totals. I've found the odds to be almost true odds where usually you have to lay -140.. Thoughts?
2 questions .. 1. What do you think about the philly over? I didn't get a great number but decent at 49 ... They are one of the only teams left 0-4 OU (the other being Min depending on what line you got last week) ... Some interesting info from the query along with a good spot...
In game 5 home teams off 4 straight UNDERS in a row (EAGLES) have gone 20-8-1 O/U... Also 9-1 O/U when the OU line is > 36 points
2. I generally don't play many teasers other then 2 teamers BUT a local I have is hanging bad odds on 4 TEAM 13 POINT (ties lose) teasers (-120) they also let you do all sides or all totals. I've found the odds to be almost true odds where usually you have to lay -140.. Thoughts?
No feel for the total but if I had to pick a result, it would be something like 31-20
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Quote Originally Posted by Champion_RX:
2 questions .. 1. What do you think about the philly over? I didn't get a great number but decent at 49 ... They are one of the only teams left 0-4 OU (the other being Min depending on what line you got last week) ... Some interesting info from the query along with a good spot...
In game 5 home teams off 4 straight UNDERS in a row (EAGLES) have gone 20-8-1 O/U... Also 9-1 O/U when the OU line is > 36 points
2. I generally don't play many teasers other then 2 teamers BUT a local I have is hanging bad odds on 4 TEAM 13 POINT (ties lose) teasers (-120) they also let you do all sides or all totals. I've found the odds to be almost true odds where usually you have to lay -140.. Thoughts?
No feel for the total but if I had to pick a result, it would be something like 31-20
This Tenn line ... I just don't see it ... Sexy Rexy V. Rookie QB ... Pinny has Tenn as small fav now.. Seems like a scare line to me, I can't think of a good reason to back ten ... stats have them even but buf has actually played real football teams.
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This Tenn line ... I just don't see it ... Sexy Rexy V. Rookie QB ... Pinny has Tenn as small fav now.. Seems like a scare line to me, I can't think of a good reason to back ten ... stats have them even but buf has actually played real football teams.
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