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suuma's NFL week five «» write-ups inside

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Barnstorm

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Posted: Oct. 10, 2015 - 11:55 AM ET #51

Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Seattle are still the public darling while the Bengals have still something to prove in Joe Public's mind. Oddsmakers open lines at numbers where they believe can generate 50/50 action. If the action isn't 50/50, the lines move towards the discrepancy. Algorithms take care of that at big oddsmakers like offshores.

I know you believe that there are games which have loopsided money splits but unless you can prove me that, I won't believe it. Why should a big bookie (not a local though) take so much risk by accepting a 80/20 money split on a spread? One late pick six and he gets burned.

As long as so many people in the world are betting so much money day in day out, bookies win on every game off the juice, so why would they take loopsided action?? And if they take loopsided action, why do lines move so often? That wouldn't make sense.

On Sundays you can follow line movement going crazy on NFL games two hours before kickoff because there is much money coming in on the games. If games are rigged or bookies know who wins, they don't need to move the lines do they?

Thanks for your comment, wish you the best this week

Well said. The Books do not want to take sides. They leave the gambling and risk-taking to us!

anNFLfan

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Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 199

Posted: Oct. 10, 2015 - 12:24 PM ET #52

Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

As long as so many people in the world are betting so much money day in day out, bookies win on every game off the juice, so why would they take loopsided action?? And if they take loopsided action, why do lines move so often? That wouldn't make sense.

Well said Suuma, if you have a 100+ years business with an ability to balance sides for juice, you will keep making money. I personally believe in fixed game, conspiracy theories, etc ... that could only make people more confused. Gluck this week and I think you may well go for 3-1.

anNFLfan

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Posts: 199

Posted: Oct. 10, 2015 - 12:25 PM ET #53

Quote Originally Posted by anNFLfan:

Sorry, I meant I personally don not believe in fixed game, conspiracy theories, etc .. :)

Tigers2013

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Posts: 924

Posted: Oct. 10, 2015 - 3:40 PM ET #54

Quote Originally Posted by anNFLfan:

Sorry, I meant I personally don not believe in fixed game, conspiracy theories, etc .. :)

Do you believe in ufo's though

anNFLfan

Prospect

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Posts: 199

Posted: Oct. 10, 2015 - 4:24 PM ET #55

Quote Originally Posted by Tigers2013:

Do you believe in ufo's though

Until I see it with my own eyes :)

TheForbes777

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Posts: 1823

Posted: Oct. 10, 2015 - 6:56 PM ET #56

Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

there are no joke lines and you know that. doesn't that tells you something suuma my friend? i took the opposite but wish a good luck. one of us will win and that is good enough for me

Indeed the line isn't a "joke", as it should be right around -2 with CIN being the home team. SOS wise both of these teams have faced similar tests so far this season, but the difference is CIN has passed its 2 test against KC and BALT.

Suuma points out some a few good things with the OL + Jimmy Graham angles, but what has me leaning to CIN is the line movement. The line has moved from -1 to -3 with the public spread slightly favoring CIN, but the ML is overwhelmingly SEA. If the conspiracy theory is in play...vegas is happy to lose the spread on CIN, but cash against those betting SEA spread and ML. My two cents. GL to all.

tomMiEe

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Posts: 1049

Posted: Oct. 10, 2015 - 7:34 PM ET #57

Man... its like you stole my picks!! Haha BOL this week buddy!! I really do think that Seattle is very over rated this season.

undermysac

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Posts: 52194

Posted: Oct. 10, 2015 - 8:14 PM ET #58

Quote Originally Posted by irage:

Be careful not to hinge everything on a QB. This is a classic situation where the QB's are very evenly matched. Wilson has a bit more experience while Dalton has been playing more consistent. The key to this game is in production and I hate to say it, but Bengals play very traditional football. Seachickens are a bit of a wildcard and have a looser style. Short week and on the road, no question SeaChickens are drawing on their name otherwise that line would be -6 or -7.

Cincy will run the ball alot in the 1st in hopes of wearing out the Hawk D. I see Cincy doing short 10-20 yard screens in 2nd half with a slow time killing possessions, Hawks will cover to deep expecting deeper passes.

I guess we'll see!

I don't have a play on this game, just throwing some stats out there.

It's Dalton's 5th year, Russell's 4th. Russell has more playoff experience/2 super bowls.

Just pointing out a couple interesting facts, like how incredibly lucky Wilson was last year not to lose a single fumble behind a great o line. Now behind a patch worked o line he has managed to increase his comp% dispite getting sacked at a high rate.

BOL

FritoLay

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Posts: 4364

Posted: Oct. 11, 2015 - 12:40 AM ET #59

Seattle Moneyline

silvermul83

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Posted: Oct. 11, 2015 - 1:39 AM ET #60

Hey suuma Phily is not -6 u still take it?

how about KC-9?

insatiable

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Posts: 36896

Posted: Oct. 11, 2015 - 1:56 AM ET #61

good luck buddy

LogCottage

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Posted: Oct. 11, 2015 - 1:56 AM ET #62

Great write-ups, Suuma.

suuma

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Posts: 4455

Posted: Oct. 11, 2015 - 2:06 AM ET #63

Can't quote from the mobile because Champion crashed the site

@Champion: Great stuff. Ive got tremendous respect for McDaniels, he is doing a phenomenal job. Just remember the Super Bowl.

suuma

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Posted: Oct. 11, 2015 - 2:08 AM ET #64

Quote Originally Posted by HFS:

That was a great read suuma, thanks for the insight...and always nice to see a fellow German here

Good to see another German. Where are you from?

suuma

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Posted: Oct. 11, 2015 - 2:09 AM ET #65

@silvermul: Ive got KC -9 myself and Eagles -6 should still be good.

suuma

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Posted: Oct. 11, 2015 - 2:15 AM ET #66

@Crashdavis: The Saints are somehow terrible as well. They benefited from the absence of Sean Lee late in the game and their OL is what keeps them in the race but they are banged up. Andrus Peat looked like a good prospect but he couldnt win a starting job at LT or RT. Gonna be interesting how he does at LT.

Rjg14

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Posted: Oct. 11, 2015 - 2:35 AM ET #67

DegenCurtis21

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Posted: Oct. 11, 2015 - 2:58 AM ET #68

Love the thread & agree with the picks. No way I could back Seattle in this spot w/ their offensive line. It's horrendous. It's a wonder Russell Wilson hasn't gotten hurt. That guy makes so many plays out of nothing running for his life. Seattle on a short week as well after a close win. I'd usually take Seattle in this spot because they have a better QB & better coach. But it comes down to the Seahawks inability to protect the passer.

On the Chiefs large. Teased them to -4. Terrible spot for the Bears. Game has 38-13 written all over it. Starting Charles & Kelce in DraftKings lineups. Alex Smith hasn't played well at all this season, but @Packers, Broncos, and @Bengals. That's a brutal schedule. Those teams are 12-0 combined.

The Saints are simply not a good football team. Eagles have come out very flat in every game. I think they finally put it together here.

DrJohn3719

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Posts: 1047

Posted: Oct. 11, 2015 - 3:09 AM ET #69

This entire post is wrong.

1. If either team is the "public darling" this week, it is still Cinci, receiving ~>8% more of all bets placed at the time of this post.

2. Some basic research would answer your own question as to why bookmakers would want to take sides. There is plenty of literature out there dissecting why 50-50 action is sub optimal if maximizing profits is the intended goal.

In a nutshell, why would I set a line encouraging equal action when I could set a line where the side that I know will receive the overwhelmingly disproportionate number of bets is statistically disadvantaged?

Hence why contrarian betting systems and market analysis is always touted.

Action_Junkie77

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Posts: 65

Posted: Oct. 11, 2015 - 3:27 AM ET #70

suuma thanks for posting and i had couple questions

1.whats your opinion of buying on or off of 3 and 7 in the nfl??had a guy tell me he always does this but i realize it may not be as important with the longer extra points

2.whats your opinion of 10pt 3 team teasers in the nfl?? played gb+1 ne+1 and kc+1..600/500 do you think their are value in these teasers or just sucker bets??

thanks for any imput good luck this weekend lets cash!!

begginerboy

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Posts: 15267

Posted: Oct. 11, 2015 - 4:40 AM ET #71

Good luck, suuma! Great writeups. Agree with all the picks except the Bungles (of course). I don't say you are wrong but it is a no play. It's a tough call. I think it will be a good, close game. Those stats about the Pats chances of winning/covering really scared me.

I hope I can sleep.

suuma

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Posts: 4455

Posted: Oct. 11, 2015 - 5:43 AM ET #72

Quote Originally Posted by DrJohn3719:

This entire post is wrong.

1. If either team is the "public darling" this week, it is still Cinci, receiving ~>8% more of all bets placed at the time of this post.

In a nutshell, why would I set a line encouraging equal action when I could set a line where the side that I know will receive the overwhelmingly disproportionate number of bets is statistically disadvantaged?

Hence why contrarian betting systems and market analysis is always touted.

1. Do you have access to information of Pinnacle or 5D or a Vegas book? Or is your number from a free site posting consensus numbers from free betting contests? And Seattle is still the public darling because they have 50/50 action at the number 3 and not 5 where this line should be based on both team's talent and performances.

2. Well then post some sources of proof.

"[...] disproportionate number of bets" - what does that have to do with the amount of money? You can have 90/10 action in terms of betting volume when the money split is 50/50.

suuma

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Posts: 4455

Posted: Oct. 11, 2015 - 5:54 AM ET #73

Quote Originally Posted by Action_Junkie77:

suuma thanks for posting and i had couple questions

1.whats your opinion of buying on or off of 3 and 7 in the nfl??had a guy tell me he always does this but i realize it may not be as important with the longer extra points

2.whats your opinion of 10pt 3 team teasers in the nfl?? played gb+1 ne+1 and kc+1..600/500 do you think their are value in these teasers or just sucker bets??

thanks for any imput good luck this weekend lets cash!!

1. Depends on your philosophy of money management. I always try to have an average line of better than -110. This season I am around -107 I guess, can't check my sheet right now. If you believe there is a huge discrepancy in the matchup and you expect a blowout, you don't need to buy down to -3 because it's money left on the table over the long run. If you need to buy down to -3, I would question the confidence in your pick. If you truly believe the game could come down to the wire, don't bet the favorite. With 7 it's the same about philosophy. Hope you understood what I meant to say.

2. -120 for three teams to hit their numbers? IMO there is not a lot of value, but I guess there are also people having success with it. If the Rams pull out a win, your whole bet is done. And I believe it's not far from reality.